X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Pete Alonso

Peter Alonso was a hyped name heading into the 2019 MLB season. FanGraphs was optimistic, giving him a perfect 80 grade on raw power along with a 70 future grade for game power. He was ranked as the top first-base prospect (and 51st overall) by MLB Pipeline, with scouts noting an advanced ability to access his 60-grade power in games that could lead to a Rookie of the Year award.

That prediction proved correct, as Alonso beat out strong contenders like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Soroka for the award with a .260/.358/.583 line and 53 HR. The fantasy community has taken notice, taking Alonso at an ADP of 25.8 per FantasyPros. However, some analysts have expressed skepticism whether Alonso's 2020 will be as strong as his 2019 was.

It's tough to hit 50+ HR, so some regression in raw power numbers is likely. His critics are also quick to point out that Alonso was much better in the first half (.280, 30 HR) than the second (.235, 23 HR). That said, Alonso's MiLB track record and MLB peripherals suggest that New York's 25-year-old first baseman has room to grow in other aspects of his game. Will it be enough to earn his draft-day price?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and weekly lineup resources:

 

An Impressive MiLB Resume

Alonso first reached the High Minors in 2017, logging an impressive .311/.340/.578 line over 47 PAs for Double-A (Binghamton). Alonso returned to Binghamton in 2018 and performed even better, hitting .314/.440/.573 with 15 HR over 273 PAs. Those numbers look great, but are actually even better than they appear. Binghamton is a strong pitcher's park, ranking in the 48th percentile for home runs and 22nd for BABIP in 2019. Putting up eye-catching numbers there is very impressive for any young hitter.

Likewise, Alonso's peripherals with Binghamton make his performance even more noteworthy. His 15.8 BB% was nearly equivalent to his 18.3 K%, suggesting an advanced plate approach at a young age. His 8.5 SwStr% was also elite for somebody with power as his calling card. His 44.2 FB% suggested that Alonso understood the value of airborne batted balls, helping him tap into his power. Of course, Alonso's raw power was on full display with a 20.5% HR/FB despite his pitcher-friendly home park.

The performance earned Alonso a crack at Triple-A (Las Vegas), where he hit .260/.355/.585 with 21 long balls in 301 PAs. Las Vegas is the biggest bandbox in a Pacific Coast League full of them, ranking in the 100th percentile for HR and 93rd for BABIP in 2019. Still, the combination of a 40.4 FB% and 28.4% HR/FB was impressive. His 25.9 K% was significantly higher than at Double-A (Binghamton), but his 11 BB% suggested that he still had a plus eye. Similarly, his 10.4 SwStr% wasn't bad at all for a slugger.

Alonso's BABIP declined dramatically at Triple-A (Las Vegas), going from .344 at Double-A (Binghamton) to just .284 at the higher level. He is not fast and posted below-average LD% marks of 18.8% and 17.5% on the farm, so he probably played over his head at Double-A. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that his Triple-A number is his true talent level either.

 

A Rookie of the Year Campaign

When you hit over 50 HR, any analysis of your season will begin with power numbers. This is just fine for Alonso, as his Statcast power metrics were all very strong. His 90.6 mph average exit velocity was solid, but his average airborne exit velocity of 96.5 mph ranked 20th among all qualified players last season. His 9.5% rate of Barrels per Plate Appearance was even better, ranking 11th. However, Alonso truly shines when you measure his contact quality by Brls/BBE. Check out the kind of company he's keeping in the table below:

Alonso ranks eighth, sandwiched between the AL HR champion and a guy who was on track to win another NL MVP before an injury derailed his season. Alonso's 32.4 Pull% on fly balls was also excellent, helping a few extra flies go over the fence. Between Alonso's Statcast numbers, pull tendency, and the scouting consensus on Alonso's power potential, there may be no better bet to produce at least a 40 HR pace this season.

Fantasy owners are probably willing to absorb a batting average hit for power like that, but you may not need to in this case. Alonso's BABIP was only .280 with the Mets last season, a number his critics cite with his Triple-A performance to paint him as a potential batting average liability. Alonso's 41.5% fly-ball rate was high enough to adversely affect his BABIP, as flies have the lowest BABIP of any batted ball type. His 13.3 IFFB% was also high, so Alonso might want to try to limit the number of pop-ups he hits.

Some of the other arguments against Alonso do not hold as much water. While his overall Pull% of 45.8% was a little higher than the 40.7% league-average mark, his 59.8 Pull% on ground balls wasn't substantially higher than the league's 58.2% rate. Alonso's overall Pull% masks the fact that more of his pulled batted balls are flies (32.4% vs. a league-average of 21%), something that the shift doesn't affect. As a result, Alonso was able to hit .304 in 173 PAs against the shift versus .263 in 191 PAs where it wasn't in play.

Considering that Alonso doesn't care about the shift and posted an average exit velocity on ground balls of 85.9 mph last year, he may have deserved better than his .237 BABIP on grounders a season ago. Likewise, his airborne contact quality would seem to support higher BABIPs on both flies (.100) and line drives (.667) in the future. Alonso's 18 LD% last season, fly-ball tendencies, and MiLB history of the same will likely keep his BABIP below .300, but he might be able to reach .290.

Alonso's plate discipline metrics tell a similar story. His 26.4 K% was a little high, but his 10.4 BB% suggests that he still had the strong eye he showcased in the minors. Alonso's 34.6% chase rate could also decline considering the elite walk rates Alonso put up on the farm. Furthermore, his 12.4 SwStr% was almost perfectly league-average despite an elite power performance. Alonso's reasonable 83.4 Z-Contact% echoes this sentiment, suggesting that Alonso could improve his average to the .270 range in 2020 just by cutting down the Ks.

 

Parting Thoughts

Baseball Savant's xStats suggest that Alonso deserved a .257 average and .542 slugging percentage last season, and both figures have room to grow if he strikes out less often. His power potential is elite, and he appears to be a fixture in the heart of the Mets lineup to rack up counting stats. Alonso won't steal bases, but he has the potential to be an asset in the remaining four roto categories.

Surprisingly, no other player offers the same profile at first base for a comparable price. Guys like Bryce Harper (21.6 ADP) and J.D. Martinez (22) might produce at a 40 HR pace, but 1B appears to be shallower than the outfield this year. Meanwhile, neither Freddie Freeman (16.8) or Anthony Rizzo (57.4) are close enough to Alonso in price to draw a fair comparison. If you need power in the second or third round, Alonso is very likely the best option on the board for you.

Verdict: Champ (based on elite power potential and batting average upside from a 1B)

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brett Baty49 mins ago

Could Start To Lose More Playing Time
Mark Hubbard59 mins ago

Trending Up Ahead Of Charles Schwab Challenge
Alejandro Tosti60 mins ago

Headed For Trouble At Colonial
Chan Kim1 hour ago

A Potential Value At Charles Schwab Challenge
PGA1 hour ago

S.H. Kim A Sneaky Option At Colonial
Justin Suh1 hour ago

A Player To Avoid At Charles Schwab Challenge
PGA1 hour ago

Matthi Schmid Looks To Regain Form At Colonial
Yoshinobu Yamamoto2 hours ago

Tallies Fifth Win In Quality Start
Marcell Ozuna2 hours ago

Launches Two Homers Monday
Jarrett Allen3 hours ago

Has "Numerous Admirers" Among Rival Teams
Clint Capela3 hours ago

Linked With Move Away From Atlanta
Gordon Hayward3 hours ago

Disappointed With Stint In Oklahoma City
Josh Giddey3 hours ago

Desperate To Remain In Oklahoma City
Bruce Brown3 hours ago

Raptors Expected To Move Bruce Brown
Julius Randle4 hours ago

Teams "Monitoring" Julius Randle's Situation In New York
Rafael Devers12 hours ago

Brings Homer Streak To Six Games Monday
Taj Bradley12 hours ago

Fans 10 In Polarizing Loss Monday
Danny Jansen12 hours ago

Homers, Plates Five Monday
Ryan Helsley13 hours ago

Earns League-Best 14th Save Monday
Gunnar Henderson13 hours ago

Homers In Fourth Straight Game Monday
Colt Emerson14 hours ago

Could Miss Up To Four Weeks With Foot Fracture
Dustin May14 hours ago

Starts Throwing Off A Mound
Joey Ortiz15 hours ago

Getting X-Rays On His Foot
Joe Ross15 hours ago

Likely To Land On Injured List
Chas McCormick15 hours ago

Could Return Tuesday
Kristaps Porzingis15 hours ago

Remains Out For Game 1
Garrett Whitlock15 hours ago

May Need Elbow Surgery
Xavier Tillman15 hours ago

Sr. Questionable For Game 1
Bobby Miller15 hours ago

To Pitch In Another Sim Game Tuesday
Evan Phillips15 hours ago

Needs Multiple Rehab Outings
Bryce Young16 hours ago

Impressing During Offseason Workouts
Ryan Pepiot16 hours ago

Ready To Return Wednesday
Rhys Hoskins16 hours ago

Starts Running Program Monday
Daniel Jones16 hours ago

Takes Part In 7-On-7 Drills
Reese Olson16 hours ago

Exits After Taking Comebacker To Hip
Matthew Stafford16 hours ago

Present At Organized Team Activities
Tee Higgins16 hours ago

Not Anticipated To Attend OTAs
Pete Crow-Armstrong16 hours ago

Cubs Send Pete Crow-Armstrong To Triple-A
CeeDee Lamb16 hours ago

Still Not Expected To Attend OTAs
Dansby Swanson17 hours ago

Activated From Injured List
DeVante Parker17 hours ago

Calls It Quits
Filip Chytil18 hours ago

Appears Ready To Rock For Eastern Conference Finals
Jani Hakanpaa18 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Roope Hintz18 hours ago

Skates Monday, Still Day-To-Day
Sam Lafferty18 hours ago

And Ilya Mikheyev Drawing Into Game 7 Lineup
Thatcher Demko19 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 7, Arturs Silovs Will Start
Brock Boeser19 hours ago

Out Indefinitely With Blood Clots
Antonio Gibson20 hours ago

Flashing Speed, Receiving Skills At OTAs
Justin Jefferson20 hours ago

Not Present At OTAs On Monday
JuJu Smith-Schuster22 hours ago

100 Percent Healthy
Joey Logano22 hours ago

Dominates All-Star Race
Ryan Fox22 hours ago

Continues Up-And-Down 2024
Denny Hamlin23 hours ago

Falls Short Of Victory At The All-Star Race
Ryan Blaney23 hours ago

Rallies For Fifth-Place Finish At North Wilkesboro
Jacoby Brissett23 hours ago

Takes First QB Reps Monday
Patton Kizzire23 hours ago

Showing Improvement The Past Month
Kyle Busch23 hours ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr Punches Kyle Busch After Lap 2 Crash at All-Star Race
Kyle Busch23 hours ago

Wrecked Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at All-Star Race, Then Said He "Sucks"
Kendrick Bourne23 hours ago

Won't Practice This Spring
Rashee Rice23 hours ago

To Participate In OTAs
Tua Tagovailoa23 hours ago

In The Building For OTAs
Christiaan Bezuidenhout23 hours ago

Likely To Bounce Back This Week
Keegan Bradley23 hours ago

Attempts To Continue Momentum From Valhalla
Edson Barboza24 hours ago

Lerone Murphy Dominates To Defeat Edson Barboza
Carlston Harris24 hours ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 92
Khaos Williams24 hours ago

Scores Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 92
Luana Pinheiro1 day ago

Loses Second Fight In A Row
Angela Hill1 day ago

Scores First Submission Win
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace Exceeds Value In DFS At North Wilkesboro
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Finishes Eighth In All-Star Race
Aaron Gordon1 day ago

Quiet In Game 7 Loss
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Leads All Scorers In Game 7 With 35 Points
Nikola Jokic1 day ago

Ends Season With Another Huge Stat Line
Rudy Gobert1 day ago

Falls Just Short Of Double-Double In Crucial Win
Jaden McDaniels1 day ago

Continues To Roll In Game 7
Anthony Edwards1 day ago

Suffers Rough Shooting Night In Game 7
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Leads Timberwolves To Conference Finals
Vinicius Salvador1 day ago

Winless In The UFC
Adrian Yanez1 day ago

Returns To Win Column In A Big Way
Ramiz Brahimaj1 day ago

Doesn't Do Much In UFC Vegas 92 Loss
Themba Gorimbo1 day ago

Wins Lackluster Decision At UFC Vegas 92
Edson Barboza1 day ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 92
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Fades Back To 17th At North Wilkesboro
Chris Buescher1 day ago

Winds Up Third At All-Star Race
David Johnson2 days ago

Officially Retires
Josh Hart2 days ago

Can't Lift New York To A Win In Game 7
Donte DiVincenzo2 days ago

Surges On Sunday Afternoon
OG Anunoby2 days ago

Limited In Game 7
Pascal Siakam2 days ago

Plays Well In Game 7
Myles Turner2 days ago

Steps Up Defensively On Sunday
Tyrese Haliburton2 days ago

Leads Indiana To The ECF
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

What To Do With Tyler Reddick At North Wilkesboro?
Tank Dell2 days ago

Resumes Running
Joey Logano2 days ago

Will Start On The Pole In The 2024 NASCAR All-Star Race
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At North Wilkesboro?
William Byron2 days ago

Aims For The Top 10 At North Wilkesboro
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win The All-Star Race
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Will Start From The Rear At North Wilkesboro
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Is One To Watch At North Wilkesboro
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Why Chase Elliott Is A Core Play In DFS This Weekend At North Wilkesboro
Kyle Busch2 days ago

Will Kyle Busch’s Recent Struggles On Short Tracks Continue This Weekend At North Wilkesboro?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2 days ago

. Likely Not A Factor In All-Star Race
Michael McDowell2 days ago

Could Slide Back At North Wilkesboro
AJ Allmendinger2 days ago

May Struggle In All-Star Race
Michael Thomas3 days ago

Reportedly Contacted By Pittsburgh
Brian Robinson Jr.3 days ago

Still Considered "Top Back" By Some
Cam Akers3 days ago

Possibly Working Toward A Return
Tank Dell3 days ago

Running Routes
Gustav Forsling3 days ago

Sends Florida To Eastern Conference Finals
Jamie Benn3 days ago

Scores Big Goal In Series-Clinching Victory
Matt Duchene3 days ago

Ends Second-Round Series With Overtime Winner
Jake Oettinger3 days ago

Leads Stars To Western Conference Final
Sergei Bobrovsky3 days ago

Stellar In Game 6 Win
Anton Lundell3 days ago

Comes Up Huge In Series-Clinching Win
T.J. Hockenson4 days ago

Won't Put A Timeline On His Recovery
TOR4 days ago

Maple Leafs Bring In Craig Berube As New Head Coach
Nick Cousins4 days ago

Re-Enters Panthers Lineup Friday
Yakov Trenin4 days ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Tyler Seguin4 days ago

Good To Go Friday
Roope Hintz4 days ago

Remains Out For Game 6
Brad Marchand4 days ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
San Francisco 49ers4 days ago

Dre Greenlaw Ditches Walking Boot
Lerone Murphy4 days ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Carlston Harris4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Khaos Williams4 days ago

Faces Carlston Harris In The Co-Main Event Of UFC Vegas 92
Angela Hill4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 92
Luana Pinheiro4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
J.T. Miller4 days ago

Scores Dramatic Game-Winner
Leon Draisaitl4 days ago

Extends Postseason-Opening Point Streak With An Assist
Ilya Mikheyev4 days ago

Dealing With Undisclosed Injury
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Detained By Louisville Police Following Traffic Incident
Vinicius Salvador5 days ago

Moves Up To Bantamweight At UFC Vegas 92
Adrian Yanez5 days ago

Looks To Snap Losing Skid At UFC Vegas 92
Themba Gorimbo5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 92
Ramiz Brahimaj5 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Vegas 92
Edson Barboza5 days ago

Headlines UFC Vegas 92
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Backup Quarterbacks To Stash in Superflex Leagues - 2024 Fantasy Football Analysis

Backup quarterback: The best job in all of sports. The fans love their unseen potential as they relax on the sideline and collect checks, free from menacing pass rushers and downhill middle linebackers. When the starter struggles, fans clamor for QB2. It's also a position not often given a second thought in fantasy football, at... Read More


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Bucky Irving

There were questions about where Oregon running back Bucky Irving would go in the 2024 NFL Draft. He was a smaller back -- sitting 5-foot-10, 190 pounds -- but he was a player who put up big numbers in his final two seasons with the Ducks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers eventually took a chance on Irving in the fourth... Read More


Fantasy Football Rookie Tight Ends You Must Have in 2024

With the draft and schedule release behind us, it’s time to try and pick out some potential sleepers and stashes we may be looking to add to our fantasy rosters this year. One position that historically underwhelms from a fantasy perspective during rookie campaigns is tight end. But, we saw Detroit rookie Sam LaPorta make... Read More


Kyren Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early Fantasy Football ADP Analysis For FFPC Leagues: Running Backs

It is never too early to check on fantasy football Average Draft Position reports. High-stakes competitors have already started drafting in seasonal formats on the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) platform. In this feature, I focus specifically on early ADP trends at running back. I have highlighted 10 notable RBs to consider from completed early... Read More


Kendre Miller - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Dynasty Price Check - Kendre Miller (2024)

The New Orleans Saints offense was supposed to take a step forward in 2023 with Derek Carr under center...until it didn't. Carr was essentially the same quarterback he's always been. It was the running game that held everybody back. The Saints averaged the second-fewest yards per carry (3.6) across the league, tallied just four carries... Read More


Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Audric Estimé

We've heard the phrase running backs don't matter before. That's evident in the real-life NFL Draft, with only 12 running backs going in the first round since 2014. That list includes Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Sony Michel, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Najee Harris, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr... Read More


Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Dynasty Buys and Sells - Post NFL Draft Edition

When it comes to dynasty fantasy football leagues, one of the most intriguing aspects is the fluctuations in player value in the aftermath of the NFL Draft. Players once thought of as placeholders quickly rise draft boards, while stars who seemed secure become losers in an instant. Dynasty rankings were turned upside down following the... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers: ADP Analysis for 2024

Fantasy football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With early 2024 best ball drafts already taking place, we're digging into the ADP of fantasy football's most impactful players. NFL Network contributor and RotoBaller analyst LaQuan dives into the early ADP of some popular fantasy options. Find out which notable fantasy football contributors are rising up 2024 draft... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

Week 7's UFL action did not disappoint, as the game of the week between St. Louis and Birmingham came down to the wire and delivered some impressive fantasy outings. The Renegades grabbed their first win of the season in an explosive 47-point offensive showing, the Panthers featured two new quarterbacks, and the Brahmas won a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

Free UFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 8

Another 5-3 week is nothing to be upset about. Plus, that was a fun week to kick back and watch from a results standpoint. The Renegades grab their first win of the season in dominant fashion, the Stallions beat the Battlehawks in a game that lived up to the expectations and gave positive tidings for... Read More


Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

Early PPR Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts: Justin Jefferson, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Trey McBride, Malik Nabers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Hey, RotoBallers! The 2024 NFL Draft is over, and it's an exciting time for football as players are starting to report to offseason workouts. The heart of fantasy football draft season is around the corner. Week 1 will be here before we know it, and it's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy... Read More


Jaylen Wright - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rookie/Free-Agent Draft Review: FFPC Deeper Targets

In the offseason and preseason, as soon as the NFL Draft is over, I eagerly jump into slow fantasy football drafts. I am a big fan of the slow draft format. It extends the fun over many days and always gives me something to look forward to throughout the day. Waking up to find out... Read More


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Second-Year Fantasy Football Players Who Will Break Out in 2024 - Sophomore Bounce-Back Candidates

For many years, fantasy football players tried their best to avoid rookies in drafts. Recently, it's become more common for rookies to make an impact. We've seen players like Ja’Marr Chase, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley finish in the top five at their positions. Even last year, we saw C.J. Stroud and Puka Nacua emerge... Read More