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Jarod's four dynasty fantasy baseball prospect fallers and potential 2026 bust candidates. These MLB prospects struggled in the Arizona Fall League and are losing fantasy value. Avoid drafting these players in dynasty leagues.
The Arizona Fall League (AFL) capped off its season a little over a month ago, and we looked at some of the prospects who thrived there in my Arizona Fall League Standouts article. In this article, we'll take a look at four prospects who struggled.
Now, keep in mind that this league is renowned for being an extremely hitter-friendly environment, so pitchers' statistics can be a bit misleading here, especially walk rates, since some of these pitchers could be tinkering with new pitches or working on mechanical adjustments. On the flip side, hitters' numbers typically look good here, but in a limited sample size of a short season, hitters who start cold may not get a chance to get hot like they normally would in the ebbs and flows of a longer regular season.
For reference, the AFL average slash line for a qualified hitter was .285/.407/.429. The most games any one player participated in was 25 regular-season games, which should give you an idea of the sample size we're dealing with. While struggles in the AFL can be taken with a grain of salt in most cases, if they are part of a broader trend, there could be legitimate cause for concern.
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Fantasy Baseball Prospect Hitters - AFL Fallers
Cam Collier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Cam Collier was drafted in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft, and by the end of 2023, he had already begun to climb the organization's ranks. In 2024, the left-handed slugger blasted 20 home runs at High-A in 427 at-bats and won the Futures Game MVP, so expectations were high coming into 2025.
2024 Futures Game MVP Cam Collier comes in at No. 5 on the 3B prospects list. 💪 pic.twitter.com/bfqeGXQdYt
— MLB (@MLB) January 20, 2025
Unfortunately, Collier injured his thumb in the spring, which required surgery and kept him out of action at High-A until June. A solid showing upon his return earned him a quick promotion to Double-A, where the former 18th overall draft pick held his own, hitting .263 and registering a strong .377 OBP thanks to a 14.6 percent walk rate. The one thing missing, though? The power.
In 85 games this season between High-A and Double-A, he hit just three home runs in 300 plate appearances. To make up for lost time, Cincinnati sent its third base prospect to the Arizona Fall League for extra reps. Since offensive numbers can be gaudy in the AFL, perhaps this was also a chance for him to get the power stroke back as well.
Unfortunately, that did not happen. Not only did the power not show up, but neither did the hit tool. In a league where the mean batting average among qualified hitters was .285, and the mean slugging percentage was .429, Collier hit .221 with a .325 SLG, including just one home run. Although he walked 16 times, the Reds' sixth-ranked prospect struck out 24 times, a 25.3 percent rate given his 95 plate appearances.
A high strikeout rate can be tolerated so long as power and production are coming in other facets of the game, but it can be concerning when there is little to no power, low average, and no speed.
The 21-year-old will presumably see time at Triple-A next season, but at the very least, he'll want to show that the power outage is behind him.
Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Baltimore Orioles
2023 first-rounder Enrique Bradfield Jr. made his way to Double-A by the end of the 2024 season, hitting .287 while walking more than he struck out (14:15 K:BB) and stealing 15 bases in 27 games at that level. He began 2025 there, but multiple stints on the injured list with hamstring injuries limited him to just 50 games at Double-A.
Hitting .269 with a strong .393 OBP earned him a late-season promotion to Triple-A, where the left-handed hitter struggled to a .179/.226/.286 slash line in 15 games (62 PA). Not known for having much power, his calling card is his elite speed, but the speedster will need to make sure there is a solid batting average and OBP; otherwise, the speed won't be of much use.
Enrique Bradfield Jr. is ELECTRIC ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/DSkUYZr9xW
— Orioles Player Development (@OsPlayerDev) March 15, 2025
A disparity of 19 strikeouts to just four walks while at Triple-A was a stark contrast to a near-even split of 135:113 K:BB during his career before the jump to the minors' highest level. So, sending Bradfield to the AFL for some additional seasoning would not only make up for lost time but also provide an opportunity to right the ship offensively.
Although the Orioles' fourth-ranked prospect was able to register a solid .341 OBP, he hit just .221 and recorded a 22:13 K:BB in 92 PA. On the bright side, thanks to getting on base via the walk, he was able to show off the wheels, notching the second-most steals in the circuit with 17 swipes. The speed also helped him in the field, as he took home the AFL Defensive Player of the Year honors.
It shows the kind of game-changing speed the 24-year-old possesses, but he'll need to make sure he is not overmatched and is more patient in his approach next season at Triple-A; otherwise, we may not see him in The Show as soon as originally expected.
Fantasy Baseball Prospect Pitchers - AFL Fallers
As mentioned above, this is a league akin to the Pacific Coast League (PCL), where hitters rake, and a ton of runs are scored. In turn, it can make pitchers' numbers look inflated. As such, it's hard to criticize most pitchers' stats in the AFL. That being said, below are a couple of pitchers who produced some concerning performances and have some work to do to get ready for 2026.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Chen-Wei Lin signed on with the Cardinals in 2023 out of Taiwan, and with a big fastball that can top 100 mph, the strikeout potential was immense. Of course, with many flamethrowers, with velocity can sometimes come an inability to consistently pound the zone, which leads to high walk rates.
That is something that initially appeared to be an issue for the right-hander as he allowed 11 walks in 11 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 while at Low-A (18.6 percent). In 2024, however, he limited free passes, recording a better-than-average 7.8 percent walk rate while fanning 26.6 percent of batters faced in 116 IP in Low-A.
In his third Double-A start, Cardinals no. 16 prospect Chen-Wei Lin struck out six batters in three innings of work. pic.twitter.com/izx39fzNTD
— Springfield Cardinals (@Sgf_Cardinals) September 10, 2025
After missing the first month of the season with an undisclosed injury, the strikeout stuff was prevalent in 2025 upon his return, as the 6-foot-7 hurler punched out 70 batters in 50 1/3 IP across three levels. In addition to another month lost in July due to injury, the control issue reared its head again, too, to the tune of a 17.5 percent walk rate over the course of the season.
With seven wild pitches on top of that, the Taiwanese pitcher registered a 5.54 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. A .197 opponent batting average showed that he was difficult to hit, though, and a 3.80 FIP was encouraging.
Like others outlined here, the Cardinals' 18th-ranked prospect was allowed to make up for lost time in the AFL while honing his craft. However, the AFL season was more of the same, as Lin posted a 6.57 ERA and 1.70 WHIP on the back of a 13.8 percent walk rate, while the strikeouts remained strong (19 K in 12 1/3 IP, 32.8 percent K%).
Opponents hit .271 off him, with 13 hits in those 12 1/3 IP, as his scouting report indicates that he doesn't get much ride on his fastball, meaning his 100 mph fastball is more hittable than one would expect. Both the walk rate and the hitability of his fastball are some things to keep an eye on in 2026, as those could be disastrous problems at the higher levels of the minor leagues.
Bryce Cunningham, RHP, New York Yankees
Bryce Cunningham was drafted in 2024 in the second round, but did not pitch in the Yankees organization until 2025. After starting the year at High-A strongly, he was placed on the injured list in June until August with an undisclosed injury. Outside of two poor outings, though, New York's fifth-ranked prospect held opponents to two runs or fewer in 10 of 12 appearances (11 starts), leading to a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
So, despite limited action, Cunningham headed to the AFL with some momentum on his side. Unfortunately, the right-hander did not see the same success in the AFL as he had during the regular season. The 6-foot-5 hurler made five starts, pitching to a 10.38 ERA and 2.23 WHIP after allowing 20 hits in 13 IP and walking more batters than he struck out (9:8 BB:K).
Bryce Cunningham -- the @Yankees' No. 5 prospect -- fires four scoreless frames in a playoff start to close out his @MLBazFallLeague campaign 🔥 pic.twitter.com/IE28GEO1fk
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 12, 2025
On the bright side, the Vanderbilt product ended on a high note, throwing four scoreless innings in his lone playoff start for Mesa (four hits, no walks, one strikeout). According to MLB Pipeline's scouting report, Cunningham has the potential to be New York's top pitching prospect, so let's hope some of the struggles he encountered in the AFL do not carry over into 2026.
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