X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers - Head-Scratching Trends?

Welcome to Part Two of the ADP Risers and Fallers series, where I will examine key changes from March to the present day. If you missed Part One, where I evaluated injured players and prospects, you can read it right here. Those were the easy risers and fallers.

In this article, we will delve into some other ADP movers that may not be as clear at first glance. We will look at a category called Surprise Movers. Referring to a group of players who moved up and down draft boards without clear cut reasoning, at least without some more in-depth analysis. We will also look at a trend that developed with relief pitchers and catchers moving up draft boards a bit.

It will be fun to see the changes in ADP from April/May to June once we have a locked-in plan for the 2020 season. For now, we have the March and April ADP to run through and look for edges to make us more prepared for draft season. Let’s check out the risers and fallers that might turn some heads.

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Surprise Movers

With most ADP risers and fallers it was easy to determine why certain players moved. That was not the case for all players. There were a handful of players that moved for differing reasons, some that took more digging to figure out. Some of the players may thrive on a shortened season as they were usually on an innings limit. Others were just flat out head-scratchers. Let’s take a look at some of the bigger risers and fallers from a surprising standpoint. 

March April Difference
Alex Wood 272 246 26
Jose Peraza 330 305 25
Teoscar Hernandez 326 304 22
Randal Grichuk 268 251 17
German Marquez 192 176 16
C.J. Cron 229 213 16
Starlin Castro 265 249 16
David Fletcher 342 330 12
Jon Gray 260 251 9
Corey Kluber 91 102 -11
Miguel Andujar 236 254 -18

 

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers

Old ADP 272, New ADP 246

Wood arrived to spring training this season with an increased fastball, thanks to the help of Driveline, and that new velocity had many running to draft him in March. Even with all the excitement, there were some that were still somewhat hesitant with the Dodgers’ way of toying with a pitcher's innings. Well, the shortened season could potentially change that and his draft price has gone up accordingly. That and the fact he will now be 100% healthy when the season starts. 

Before an injury-riddled 2019, Wood had thrown at least 150 innings in back to back seasons, good for almost a strikeout per inning, and some really solid ratios. He will be pitching for the heavy favorite in the National League and should be in line for wins as well. Wood is a really solid pick this season and the increase in price is justified. With that being said, I would rather gamble on Rich Hill over Wood, but no problem drafting Wood if the feeling of a big season is strong.

 

Starlin Castro, Washington Nationals

Old ADP 265, New ADP 249

Castro will be entering his eleventh season in the bigs yet is only 30 years old. Year after year he is overlooked in drafts but continues to put in quality production hitting 16 or more home runs in three of the last four seasons while also hitting at least .270. Castro puts up consistent production and now joins the defending world series champion Nationals. 

When Castro signed with the Nationals there were still questions of Castro playing every day. That question was answered when Dave Martinez said Castro was the every day, starting second baseman. There were some drafters still concerned with all the platoon options that the Nats had, but they don’t need to worry nearly as much with the universal DH coming into play. Castro makes for a nice later round 2B or MI options in drafts and the improved price tag still is not high enough.

 

Quick Hits

Jose Peraza, BOS - For some unknown reason, Peraza is climbing up the ADP charts. He is slated to platoon with Michael Chavis for the Red Sox and hit near the bottom of the Red Sox order. If he were playing every day there could be an argument as a late stolen base target, but for now the price bump makes no sense.

Teoscar Hernandez, TOR - Hernandez, and his teammate Randal Grichuk have been making their way up draft boards. Both are solid power sources later in drafts, but Hernandez has shown the ability to run a bit more than Grichuk. I would rather wait and grab Hernandez a few rounds later with his upside.

C.J. Cron, DET - Cron has been a great later round 1B option after the top targets are off the board. He will still hit for solid power with the Tigers and his price tag is still fine for the slugging first baseman. His price tag likely moved up as others are jumping on the Cron train, as well as the idea of the Tigers not playing in Comerica. Do not worry where he is playing and enjoy some Cron in your life.

 

Catchers

With the idea of a shortened season, the need for more consistent at-bats appears the be on the minds of many drafting. Over the last few seasons we have seen many more platoons or 65/35 type splits at the catcher position. With the idea of consistent at-bats, some catchers that would usually wait for later in the draft are moving up the draft boards. 

March April Difference
Travis D'Arnaud 257 247 10
Danny Jansen 253 243 10
Yadier Molina 235 227 8
Jorge Alfaro 218 210 8
Buster Posey 256 250 6
James McCann 341 337 4
Carson Kelly 203 200 3

 

Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays

Old ADP 253, New ADP 243

Jansen was a popular sleeper target in 2019 and he disappointed greatly. His barrel rate dropped by four percent, his wOBA was only. 275 and his average was a horrible .207. This all seems very bad, but there is hope. He hits in a loaded Jays lineup and still managed a .358 xwOBAcon, 40% hard-hit rate, and a really nice 37.4% ideal contact rate. There is definite bounce-back potential with Jansen and at pick 243 he is worth the gamble, especially as a second catcher in a two catcher league.

 

Jorge Alfaro, Miami Marlins

Old ADP 218, New ADP 210

Alfaro was traded to the Marlins last season and many were concerned the offensive production would plummet in that not so hitter-friendly ballpark. No need for concern as Alfaro hit .262 for the second straight season with 18 home runs and even threw in four stolen bases. It gets even better as Alfaro had career highs in barrel rate at 11.5%, hard-hit rate at 44.8%, and a .452 xwOBAcon. Alfaro continues to improve offensively each season and is still being drafted outside the top 10 at the catcher position. Do not miss out on another solid offensive season from Alfaro.

 

Quick Hits

Travis d'Arnaud, ATL - d’Arnaud joins the Braves and for some reason people are all over him in drafts. He can hit for some power but is a massive average liability. Besides those concerns, the major concern is being a catcher for the Braves who are notorious for having a near 50/50 platoon split at catcher, and Tyler Flowers is still on the team.

 

Relief Pitchers

With a shortened season there will likely be more of a push for secure counting stats. The saves stat has already shown some volatility in recent years and a shortened season may enhance that volatility. With fewer saves to be had, more reliable closers or drafting more closers may be the answer. We can see in the ADP changes that a lot of closers, regardless of just how good they are, are moving up draft boards.

March April Difference
Kenley Jansen 99 95 4
Ken Giles 113 108 5
Hector Neris 117 111 6
Raisel Iglesias 131 123 8
Nick Anderson 137 124 13
Brandon Workman 141 134 7
Alex Colome 145 138 7
Hansel Robles 148 144 4
Jose Leclerc 156 148 8
Giovanny Gallegos 175 166 9
Sean Doolittle 175 172 3
Keona Kela 182 175 7
Mark Melancon 195 188 7
Brandon Kintzler 273 262 11
Hunter Harvey 308 268 40
Mychal Givens 279 288 -9
Tony Watson 313 307 6
Matt Magill 327 319 8

 

Hunter Harvey, Baltimore Orioles

Old ADP 308, New ADP 268

Harvey is the biggest ADP riser and it makes sense. Right before the stop of the season, Harvey was announced as the likely closer for the Orioles. The young flame thrower showcased some back of the bullpen upside at the end of 2019 and he is leaving fantasy owners with some high hopes for 2020. Even at his current price he is a solid RP3 on your roster, but be careful as wins will be very hard to come by for the Orioles, so there will not be a ton of save chances, to begin with.

 

Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays

Old ADP 137, New ADP 124

Anderson took the fantasy world by storm in 2019 by just dominating hitter after hitter. His dominance has led many to anoint the 29-year-old as the full-time closer for the Rays. He deserves to get his shots and will get many, but this is also the Rays. They love spreading saves around their bullpen and have many qualified candidates to share the wealth with. Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado will get their fair shake as well and at a much lower draft price than Anderson.

 

Quick Hits

Hansel Robles, L.A. Angels- Robles took over closing duties in 2019 and never looked back. His pitch mix changes made him a lethal closer and he is still being drafted too late. He’s a great RP2 or even RP1 if you wait on saves.

Giovanny Gallegos, STL Cardinals- Seems everyone is running to draft Gallegos as the Cardinals closer, without worrying about the other options in the bullpen. The Cards will be getting their regular closer Jordan Hicks back as well as other talented options in the pen. Just be careful when reaching for Gallegos.

 

Conclusion

As you can see there were many changes from the stop of spring training to the new shortened season propositions. The next set of changes will take place when the new season is announced and the three-division format is put in play. Until then, we will keep preparing with the data we have and look to find edges wherever we can find them.




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Jake Cronenworth13 mins ago

Padres Agree To Extension
Anthony Davis14 mins ago

Battles Through Injury For A Big Double-Double
Nolan Jones21 mins ago

Homers Twice For Albuquerque
Jonathan Toews22 mins ago

Returns To Action Saturday
Tyler Toffoli32 mins ago

Nets Two Goals Against Vancouver
Clayton Keller41 mins ago

Keeps Point Streak Going Friday
Jason Robertson53 mins ago

Sets New Stars Scoring Record
Adam Fox1 hour ago

Continues Hot Spell With A Goal
Casey Mittelstadt1 hour ago

Hands Out Two Assists
Steven Kwan3 hours ago

Plates Five In Win Over Seattle
Tee Higgins10 hours ago

Not Concerned About Contract Situation
Jeff Skinner10 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal In Overtime
Devon Levi10 hours ago

Earns Victory In NHL Debut
A.J. Puk12 hours ago

Picks Up Save For Marlins Friday
Rhys Hoskins12 hours ago

Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery
Nick Solak12 hours ago

Mariners Acquire Nick Solak From Reds
Justin Verlander13 hours ago

Does Some Light Throwing
Luis Urías13 hours ago

Luis Urias Reportedly Heading To Injured List
Joey Wiemer13 hours ago

Reportedly Will Be Called Up
Anthony Rendon13 hours ago

Being Investigated By MLB
Willson Contreras14 hours ago

Receives Good News On Friday
Seattle Seahawks15 hours ago

Ryan Neal Becomes Free Agent
Pharaoh Brown15 hours ago

Joins Colts
Darrynton Evans15 hours ago

To Meet With Colts
Laquon Treadwell15 hours ago

Working Out For Cowboys
Zach Collins15 hours ago

Out Against Golden State
De'Andre Hunter15 hours ago

Out With A Knee Injury On Friday
Oscar Gonzalez15 hours ago

Starting On Friday
Obi Toppin16 hours ago

Will Start Against The Cavs
Jarrett Allen16 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Nelson Cruz16 hours ago

Batting Cleanup On Friday
Mike Moustakas16 hours ago

Remains Out Again
Michael Brantley16 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice
Andrew Vaughn16 hours ago

Sitting On Friday
Gavin Sheets18 hours ago

Oscar Colas Starting On Friday
Paul Sewald18 hours ago

Picks Up Win On Opening Day
Garrett Whitlock18 hours ago

Making Rehab Start Friday
Josh Rojas18 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Against Dodgers
Corey Julks18 hours ago

Making MLB Debut Against White Sox
Portland Trail Blazers19 hours ago

LaMarcus Aldridge Officially Retires From The NBA
Jamal Murray19 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Phoenix
Nikola Jokic19 hours ago

Could Miss His Second Consecutive Game
Kenyon Martin19 hours ago

Jr. Uncertain To Play Against Detroit
Tobias Harris19 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Game Against Toronto
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander19 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable On Friday
Al Horford19 hours ago

Uncertain To Suit Up On Friday
Jaylen Brown19 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable With Lower-Back Pain
Jayson Tatum19 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Against Utah
Kelly Olynyk19 hours ago

Is Available Against Boston On Friday
De'Andre Hunter19 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Trayveon Williams21 hours ago

Bengals Have High Hopes For Trayveon Williams
Joe Burrow22 hours ago

Bengals Begin Extension Discussions With Joe Burrow
Mac Jones22 hours ago

Bill Belichick Still Non-Committal On Mac Jones
Sammy Blais23 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Cam Talbot23 hours ago

Makes A Winning Return
Matthew Beniers24 hours ago

Logs Two Points Against Anaheim
Stuart Skinner24 hours ago

Grabs A 43-Save Shutout
Tristan Jarry24 hours ago

Records His Second Shutout
Matthew Tkachuk24 hours ago

Rolls To Four Points Versus Montreal
T.J. Oshie1 day ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury
Mikey Anderson1 day ago

Injured On First Shift Thursday
CJ McCollum1 day ago

Drops 23 Points In Easy Win Over Denver
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Salvages Solid Performance In Loss
Brandon Ingram1 day ago

Secures A Triple-Double Against Denver
Jaylen Brown1 day ago

Collects Another 30-Point Game
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Drops 40 Points In Blowout Win
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Allows One Goal In Overtime Victory
David Pastrnak1 day ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Have Been Active In Receiver Market
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Kyle Trask To Compete In Training Camp
Courtland Sutton2 days ago

Broncos Could Still Trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

To Stay With Cardinals?
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Jets The Most Likely Landing Spot For Odell Beckham Jr.
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Panthers Not Settled On One QB For No. 1 Pick
Lamar Jackson2 days ago

Not Seeking Fully Guaranteed Deal
Nathan Peterman2 days ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Ryan Lindgren2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Against New Jersey
Seth Jones2 days ago

Expects To Play Thursday
David Savard2 days ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Dre Miller2 days ago

Kendre Miller Ahead Of Schedule
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Bills Re-Sign Jordan Phillips
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Alex Bars Returns To Raiders On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Johnathan Hankins Re-Signs With Cowboys
NFL2 days ago

Wanya Morris Getting Close To 100%
Brendon Todd3 days ago

Has Success At TPC San Antonio
Ben Martin3 days ago

Has Value At TPC San Antonio
Nick Taylor3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Valero
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sleeper Option At TPC San Antonio
Chris Kirk3 days ago

A Good Option At The Valero Texas Open
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

Loves Playing TPC San Antonio
Will Gordon3 days ago

Offers A Wild-Card Option At Valero
Cam Davis3 days ago

Can Keep His Current Form At TPC San Antonio
Mark Hubbard4 days ago

A Low-Risk Value Option At Valero
Tyler Duncan4 days ago

Start Tyler Duncan At TPC San Antonio
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Not Recommended At Valero
Patrick Rodgers4 days ago

Don't Give Patrick Rodgers A Shot At Valero
Adam Schenk4 days ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore4 days ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery4 days ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners4 days ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera5 days ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen5 days ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos5 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm5 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee5 days ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani5 days ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron5 days ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF