Mike Soroka Will Not Live Up to Draft Price Expectations

Every year there are polarizing players in fantasy baseball. These polarizing players leave no room for middle ground. They are the catalyst for Twitter debates, articles, videos, podcasts, and by the end of it you are forced to chose a side: are you in or are you out? For those of you thinking, surely there […]

Evaluating OAA for Pitchers Changing Teams (12-Team Leagues)

Last week, I looked at Statcast’s new Outs Above Average (OAA) leaderboard, which they’ve used to identify the best defensive infielders in the league. My initial exploration of the metric was designed to identify pitchers who might have been lucky or unlucky last year as a way of mining for bounceback value or avoiding potential […]

Engel's Angles: ADP Insights, Perspectives on Aaron Judge and Ketel Marte (Premium Content)

Spring training exhibition play has just opened and expert draft season is here. The trends are being firmly established on how to draft, and where to draft certain players. We all know pure ace top starters are going to be taken very early, and there will be a high emphasis on garnering top speed merchants. […]

ADP Cost Analysis - Gleyber Torres vs. Corey Seager

Fantasy baseball players acquire draft position through osmosis. The more drafts that take place, the larger sample we gain of how owners of all experience levels feel about someone. Granted, inexperienced players often rely on rankings from experts, which goes to form ADP into something resembling common rankings, but the outcome is unimpeachable, collected data […]

2020 Regression Candidates: Breakout Outfielders

Every season in MLB you can count on the fact that you will have breakout performances from players. Sometimes these breakout performances can be seen coming a mile away and sometimes they catch you entirely by surprise. Regardless of which type of breakout we see, you will almost always have to pay up for that […]

ADP Cost Analysis: Trey Mancini vs. Christian Walker

One of the most important skills in a fantasy draft is the ability to identify a player with similar value at a lower ADP. When you're able to find similar production at a lower cost, this allows you to use an earlier pick to fill out other areas of your roster, resulting in a stronger […]

Biggest Fallers: K-BB%, Part 2

K-BB% is a valuable metric because it shows which pitchers can combine strikeout ability with pinpoint control. Pitchers with high K-BB% possess high floors and ceilings because even when they’re not accumulating strikeouts, they are still usually able to pound the strike zone. Name K-BB% '18 K-BB% '19 K-BB%-Diff ADP (NFBC) Patrick Corbin 24.80% 20.10% […]

Early ADP Thoughts - Outfielders

♫It's the most wonderful tiiiiiiiime, of the year!♫ Well, sort of. In much of the country, February brings terrible weather and generally feels interminable, despite being the shortest month on the calendar. This being a leap year, we get an extra day of it. Fun! But for fantasy baseball owners, fun is exactly what you […]

Introducing EDV - Expected Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball

Last March at RotoBaller, we kicked off a cool fantasy baseball research project, exploring what we're calling Expected Draft Values. This offseason, we’ve refined the approach and our research, and taken things a step forward. We're sharing this concept with the fantasy baseball world now, and hope it's as helpful to you as it's been […]

Biggest Fallers: K-BB%, Part 1

K-BB% is a valuable metric because it shows which pitchers can combine strikeout ability with pinpoint control. Pitchers with high K-BB% possess high floors and ceilings because even when they’re not accumulating strikeouts, they are still usually able to pound the strike zone. The list below shows pitchers with the highest drop-off in this rate […]

Analyzing Fly Ball Metrics: 2020 Negative Regression Candidates

Last week, I uncovered a few pitching casualties from the record-setting 2019 season, which saw an unprecedented amount of home runs hit and a "juiced" ball theory come into light. While the use of the defensive shift has caused more players to change their swing into a fly ball-oriented approach, this monumental increase in dingers […]

Sophomore Players Due for Regression in 2020

The 2019 season saw a significant number of rookie hitters debut with great success. But Major League Baseball’s history is littered with strong freshman debuts followed by disappointing sophomore campaigns. In other words, successful rookie seasons do not guarantee all-star careers or even another good performance. We can look back at 2016 for some examples […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Third Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 2019 Season in Review

A year ago, though he was highly valued in dynasty leagues, Fernando Tatis Jr. was viewed merely as a late-round flier in redraft formats. At just 20 years old and with only 450 plate appearances above Single-A, there was a large degree of uncertainty around his 2019 outlook. Would San Diego's front office manipulate his […]

2019 Season in Review: Carlos Correa

Over the first five seasons of his career, Carlos Correa has demonstrated why the Astros chose him first overall in the 2012 MLB amateur draft. He captured American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2015, along with some down-ballot MVP consideration. In 2017, he made his first All-Star team, finishing 10th in the league […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Shortstop

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

2019 Season in Review: Danny Santana

One of the first articles I ever published with RotoBaller was a warning. Specifically, this column dissuaded fantasy owners from buying into Danny Santana's breakout 2014 season. (Yes, I've been doing this for a long time/am old.) That year, Santana had emerged from obscurity as a 23-year-old rookie to hit .319/.353/.472 with 70 runs scored […]

Biggest Outfield Risers/Fallers of 2020

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season as well as the beginning of Fantasy Baseball Prep season! It may seem like the 2020 fantasy baseball season just ended, but the 2021 season will be here before we know it. Now is as good a time as ever to start thinking about your new draft […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Second Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - First Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Catcher

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospect candidates. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This […]

2019 Fantasy Baseball Season Review - RotoBaller Staff Picks

Playoff fever is in full effect but sadly, the fantasy baseball season has come to an end. We're not ready to let go just yet, so the RotoBaller staff decided to look back at the 2019 season from a fantasy perspective in order to dole out awards for top sleeper, bust, and of course, MVP. […]

Champ or Chump: Shed Long and Tommy Edman

With 2019 basically in the books, a lot of fantasy baseball content is starting to focus on 2020: namely early picks in 2020. While a lot of owners agonize over whether to take Christian Yelich or Ronald Acuna Jr. with the second overall pick, the truth is that the decision isn't likely to matter so […]

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - wOBA-xwOBA Difference for Week 26

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s pitchers Statcast studs and duds article series for the final week of fantasy baseball! Each week we will select an advanced stat, choose two studs and two duds, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. We have sadly reached the end of the season, so I thought […]

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 26

Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 26! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise […]

The Cut List (Week 26) - Time to Let Go?

Here it is, the final week. With 96% of the season in the books, anyone can be considered droppable under the correct circumstances. Most obvious would be a situation where you have already hit a playing time cap and thus have no use for anyone who plays that position. Or if you are 15 home […]

Champ or Chump: Tim Anderson and Jorge Soler

With only a week and a half left to go in the regular season, most fantasy owners either have their leagues won, have moved onto other things, or are finishing up their H2H playoffs. If you're one of the lucky few who still has a reason to care if your starting SS is getting a […]

Starters WAR Studs and Duds: Week 25

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s pitchers advanced stats and StatCast studs and duds article series! Each week we will select an advanced stat, choose two studs and two duds, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. At this point in the season, I will focus on an all-encompassing stat for starting pitchers; […]

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 25

Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 25! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise […]