X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Mike Soroka Will Not Live Up to Draft Price Expectations

Every year there are polarizing players in fantasy baseball. These polarizing players leave no room for middle ground. They are the catalyst for Twitter debates, articles, videos, podcasts, and by the end of it you are forced to chose a side: are you in or are you out?

For those of you thinking, surely there is a middle ground, the answer truly is no. You may not feel as strongly as the people on the negative side of the player, but unless you are willing to pay the price that those people buying in are, you will never actually acquire that player. 

Mike Soroka is one of those players this season. I inadvertently contributed to that myself.

Featured Promo: Get ANY MLB Premium Pass for 10% off the regular price with code BALLER. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

A Reasonable Question

While digging on starting pitchers I noticed that Soroka and Kyle Hendricks had similar stats. So, I did what any fantasy baseball analyst would do, I took to Twitter: 

That tweet caused a little bit of a stir and led to some people backing the Braves young hurler and some saying they will be avoiding him. That led to me diving deeper into Soroka and his breakout 2019 season. I came away with one simple thought and my hope is by the end of this article you agree with it: Let someone else draft Mike Soroka.

When I say that, I do not mean he is going to be a bust in the sense that he is this year's Nick Pivetta and will absolutely implode. I am simply saying the juice (fantasy production) is not worth the squeeze (cost to draft him).

 

Dissecting The Surface Stats

Soroka's rookie year was a great development for the Braves and fantasy players' rotations last season. He pitched to a 2.68 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 174.2 innings. Looking at those numbers you’d probably think, "I wish there were some more strikeouts, but he's still a very good pitcher." Unfortunately, the ERA is a mirage as the 3.45 FIP shows he was not nearly pitching to that level but instead was a little lucky. The 3.85 xFIP shows that the ERA was not to expected moving forward and one closer to four is what should be expected. Just in case you’re still not sold, his SIERA was 4.28 in 2019. 

But my issue is not just with the ERA. Soroka does not miss enough bats. Last season, he had just a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, which ranked 73rd among pitchers with at least 120 innings. I get what you are thinking: we already know he will not be a huge strikeout pitcher. Well, not only are strikeouts 25 percent of the categories that starting pitchers impact (they do not pick up saves), but the fewer batters a pitcher strikes out the more variance there is with the other stats. Pitchers can certainly work around lack of strikeouts and have successful seasons, but that success just becomes harder to sustain over time.

Soroka was able to put up a very strong 1.11 WHIP last season, but no projections have him anywhere close to that number. Soroka picked up that WHIP last year largely in part to a .280 BABIP. Only once in the minors did we see him sport a BABIP around that number and often it was around or even above .300. But I am not basing my research off of his minor league BABIP.

Since 2016, the first full season in the new juiced-ball era, there have been 91 cases where a pitcher (min. 120 innings) finished with a groundball rate of 50 percent or higher (Soroka was 51.2 percent in 2019). Of those 91 pitchers, only 22 of them, or 24 percent, had a BABIP of .280 or lower. The majority, 46 pitchers or 51 percent, had a BABIP of .300 or higher. And of those 46 pitchers, 23 of them had a BABIP of .318 or higher. Perhaps Soroka really is the second coming of Hendricks and can maintain a BABIP around .280 or so, but I do not want to have to pay a premium to find out. 

 

Dissecting His Repertoire 

Soroka gets by with his spin, rather than his velocity. In fact, his average velocity is below league average on all four of his pitches, but the spin rate is above league average on all of them. 

Pitch

Soroka Avg Velocity League Average Velocity Soroka Avg Spin Rate League Avg Spin Rate Soroka Swinging Strike Rate League Swinging Strike Rate

Two Seam Fastball 

92.3

92.6 2,175 2,176 5.7

5.9

Slider

83.2 84.7 2,779 2,421 16.3

16.6

Four Seam Fastball

92.9 93.4 2,362 2,287 6.8

9.1

Changeup 81.3 84.5 2,177 1,810 22.2

15.2

Based on this, I would say that Soroka has one plus pitch, his changeup. Perhaps he can go the Patrick Corbin route and throw his best pitch a bunch more, but it is hard to do that with a changeup. Soroka threw that pitch only 12 percent of the time last year, the fewest of all his pitches. But, the league average usage of a changeup is 11 percent. In fact, only six pitchers last year threw a changeup over 25 percent of the time, according to Fangraphs. Spin rate is very important for pitchers, but I have difficulty paying up for a pitcher with below-average velocity and swing and miss stuff. 

Baseball Savant has a great tool that takes pitcher velocity and movement and compares them to other pitchers' stuff around the league. In 2019, Soroka compared most similarly to: Kyle Gibson, Ariel Jurado, Adrian Sampson, Dakota Hudson and Lance Lynn. Only one of those five pitchers is going around where Soroka is in fantasy drafts. It gets even worse when you look at his stuff, judged by Baseball Savant: 

Lastly, all the expected stats were higher than the surface ones. That is not good for a pitcher. Batters hit just .236, but the expected average against him was .264. Batters had a .340 slugging percent and .272 wOBA, but the expected slugging was .395 and the xwOBA was .304. 

 

Expected Production

Soroka is the 33rd pitcher off the board according to NFBC ADP in the last two weeks. But of those 33 pitchers, five are closers, so he is the 28th starting pitcher off the board. In that same span, Hendricks, the pitcher I keep comparing him to, is the 57th pitcher off the board, going over 50 picks later. I have long been a Hendricks guy because you never have to pay a premium for him. In fact, he is underrated yearly. If you are drafting Soroka this year, you are hoping for him to build off of last year. For Soroka to live up to those expectations, he either needs to start striking a lot more batters out or he needs to be able to duplicate last year's success in ERA and WHIP, neither of which I want to pay up to find out if he can. 

The other issue with Soroka is there are pitchers projected to put up similar numbers, but you do not need to pay for the helium. Here are some pitcher projections from TheBAT and their ADP:

- Mike Soroka: 12-10, 182 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 149 K, 109.76 ADP

- Marcus Stroman: 12-10, 179 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 146 K, 210.70 ADP

- James Paxton: 9-6, 129 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 154 K, 179.11 ADP

- Julio Urias: 10-7, 137 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 140 K, 152.19 ADP

- Carlos Martinez: 10-10, 160 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 146 K, 189.13

- Lance McCullers: 11-6, 139 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 157 K, 190.04 ADP

- A.J. Puk: 10-8, 147 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 162 K, 236.10 ADP

And of course:

- Kyle Hendricks: 11-10, 180 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 141 K, 162.02 ADP

Of those pitchers listed above, only Urias is going within 50 picks of Soroka. You can get very similar projected results out of Stroman but 100 picks later! I am not saying these pitchers listed above will all be better than Soroka, but showing that his skill set is not one worth paying up for in drafts. 

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford6 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White6 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl7 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon7 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter7 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic7 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio7 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday7 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton8 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid8 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray8 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert9 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James9 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez9 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis9 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama9 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards9 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell9 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith9 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks9 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green9 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson9 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson9 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman9 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray10 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar10 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams10 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo10 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres11 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard11 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson11 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer11 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia11 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen11 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers11 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers12 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers12 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar13 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark13 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers14 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB14 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels14 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB14 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby14 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith14 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds14 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti15 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga16 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain16 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim16 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA16 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry16 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox16 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak16 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan18 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg18 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn18 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby18 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin18 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord18 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala19 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark19 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler19 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser20 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder20 hours ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen20 hours ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama20 hours ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin20 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown1 day ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff1 day ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins1 day ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray1 day ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT1 day ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn1 day ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield1 day ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR1 day ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras1 day ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen1 day ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb1 day ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander1 day ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More


Players to Avoid Drafting in 2024 Best Ball

In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More


2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (Post-Free Agency Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

We've now reached the point in the year where the disappointment of there not being any live football until the fall has subsided and hope has begun to renew for each fanbase heading into draft season. The first wave of NFL Free Agency has also passed and the rosters of all 32 teams have begun... Read More


Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Top-200 Fantasy Football Rankings - Post Free Agency Edition

Fantasy football drafts are still five months away, but rankings and how fantasy managers value all of the players are constantly changing. With the better part of free agency in the rearview mirror and the best players on their new teams, we can re-evaluate our rankings to see which players have moved up and down.... Read More


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Deshaun Watson- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

The NFL offseason has been scorching hot. It's been fun to watch. While redraft fantasy football players have been able to put their feet up and relax, dynasty players know their work never stops. With major signings and big names on the move, the start of the offseason is one of the busiest times of... Read More


NFL DRAFT - Bold Predictions Round 2 2024

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 2

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire in this year's edition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the second round of the draft. Don't forget to check out... Read More


UFL SCHEDULE - Fantasy Football, 2024

2024 UFL Schedule (United Football League): Full 10-Game Schedule For Each Team

Check out the full 2024 UFL schedule for each team in the United Football League. The inaugural season of the UFL begins on March 30, and the first year of the XFL-USFL merger should be a fun one to keep tabs on. Each team will play ten regular season games before a four-team playoff consisting... Read More