RADIO
Ben Holmes identifies three overvalued and three undervalued starting pitchers to help fantasy owners determine who to target and avoid in drafts.
Spring training is often the time when players start climbing up or freefalling down draft boards. This year, however, without a full spring training to draw from, there is less talk of a pitcher with a new and improved change-up, and fewer managers blowing smoke, influencing fantasy owners. Nevertheless, there is still plenty of value to be had at the starting pitcher position, and some not worth spending such a premium pick on them.
All players listed are universally owned; there are no deep sleepers here. ADP is taken from NFBC and is from April 15th, 2020, to May 21st, 2020. These dates were chosen to avoid the influence preseason injuries of now healthy players had on drafts that took place before or shortly after the original March 26th opening day. Filtering the ADP to less than the most recent five weeks would have limited the sample size too much and skewed the averages.
Let's dive in and take a look at three undervalued and three overvalued starting pitching options to consider when drafting in fantasy leagues.
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Undervalued
James Paxton, New York Yankees
ADP: 119
Few pitchers have benefited more from the delay of Opening Day than James Paxton. The “Big Maple” was going to miss the first few months of the season after having back surgery on February 5th. Before the league was postponed, the Yankees left-hander was often taken after pick 200, due to the injury. Now he’s guaranteed to be picked in the top 10 rounds of a standard draft. However, at his 119 ADP he is still slightly undervalued.
His first season in Yankee Stadium was a moderate success, finishing with the best ERA (3.82), FIP (3.86), and K/9 (11.1) amongst the Bronx Bombers' rotation. After a rocky June and July in which he gave up 38 runs in 48 IP, he finished the season strong. He held opponents to a .174 BA from August to October with seven quality starts in his final 11 regular-season outings.
Paxton relies heavily on his 95.4 MPH heater (59.9% in 2019) so that he can put hitters away on his fantastic cutter (43.3 WHIFF%) and curveball (37.4% WHIFF%). However, the former Mariner needs to do a better job keeping these pitches over the plate this upcoming season. His zone % dropped in 2019 from 54.4 to 48.4. Theoretically, this should help his chase %, however, that also dropped from 31.8 to 30.4. This is a large reason for Paxton’s massive jump in BB% (6.5% -8.7%) and therefore WHIP (1.10 – 1.28).
Essentially, if Paxton can rekindle his 2017 and 2018 form this upcoming season, he will far outperform his 119 ADP. He should definitely be taken ahead of most of the 11 closers currently going ahead of him. He should also be going ahead of a fair few starters as well. For example, the southpaw should provide more Ks, Ws, and likely a better ERA than pitchers like Mike Soroka (104 ADP) and Sonny Gray (95 ADP). Frankly, he has the upside of a top 10 SP and has a great chance to outperform his current ADP as long as there aren’t any hiccups in his comeback from surgery.
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 160
The player on this list with the lowest ADP and arguably the most undervalued is Matthew Boyd. This assessment is based mostly on his immense breakout potential, but worst-case scenario his elite strikeout rate should provide an adequate return at his current 160 ADP even if he doesn't make the leap many expect.
The lefty took a massive step forward last season while playing almost in anonymity for the 47-114 Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. He started the season on fire, striking out 10 Blue Jays in five innings in his first start, then proceeded to throw seven straight quality starts, and nine out of eleven throughout April and May.
In fact, in the past three seasons, Boyd has always come out of the gates hot, until the wheels fall off in June. Perhaps the reality of pitching for the worst team in baseball catches up to him.
The 29-year-old set career highs in every meaningful statistic in 2019. His 11.56 K/9 was sixth in the Majors, and his 2.43 BB/9 was a respectable 25th amongst qualifying starters. A 4.56 ERA looks ugly but the peripherals showed that Boyd was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball last season, as his 3.88 xFIP illustrates.
Perhaps most impressive was Boyd’s SIERA; at 3.61 it was the eleventh best in the Majors. Out of the top 30 players ranked by SIERA, only German Marquez (3.85/176 ADP) and Robbie Ray (4.02/161 ADP) are drafted after the former Toronto Blue Jay. That’s the definition of undervalued.
Boyd fell victim to a 3.07 BABIP, an 18.2% HR/FB, and a league-high 1.89 HR/9, all drastic outliers in his five-year Major League career. Expect those to regress back towards their averages of .297 BABIP, and 13.8% HR/FB rate respectively.
The southpaw has a devastating slider (1.89 XBA, .250 WOBA) that stuck out 118 of the 237 batters Boyd sat down on strikes last season. However, he runs into trouble by giving up too much offense off his fastball. He threw the heater 49.8% of the time in 2019, sacrificing 25 homers, a .269 BA, and .359 WOBA. All worse than the season prior.
If Boyd can revert back to the success he had with his fastball in 2018 while still making hitters look silly with his slider, 2020 could be the year it all comes together for the Tigers ace.
Clearly, he’s most valuable for fantasy purposes in a league that values quality starts over wins. The worst-case scenario is that he follows his usual trajectory and an owner can sell him sky high when he gets out to his typical hot start.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 123
After signing a five-year deal worth $118 million, the newest member of the Philadelphia Phillies will be looking to justify his price tag in 2020. The former sixth-overall pick in 2009, has always had a lot of potential and hopefully a change of venue will help him realize that. Citizens Bank Park isn't necessarily any more pitcher-friendly than Citi Field, but sometimes a change of scenery and coaching staff is all it takes for a former highly regarded prospect to make a big jump forward. Case in point, Gerrit Cole.
After missing two and a half seasons due to Tommy John surgery, the 30-year-old is only entering his fifth full season. The flamethrower will be a nice number two behind Aaron Nola, as the Phillies try to live up to the hype they couldn’t reach last season. If they do, Wheeler has a great chance to surpass his career-high win total (12).
If Wheeler can replicate what he did in 2019, he’ll end up as a top 100 player in fantasy. His 2.30 BB/9 was by far the most control he showed in his career, and his 195.1 IP and 96.8 MPH heater shows he is all the way back to his old self. His ERA did jump from 3.31 to 3.96 in 2019, but that can be attributed to his BABIP increasing from .279 to .311.
The former Met is seemingly a jack of all pitches. He doesn’t have one go-to, put-away pitch, like Matt Boyd and his slider. Rather, he throws five highly effective pitches. He even sprinkled in a split-finger 32 times.
The four starters drafted most closely ahead of Wheeler are Dinelson Lamet, Shohei Ohtani, Zac Gallen, and Lance Lynn. It’ll be surprising if Wheeler doesn’t outperform all these other starters, barring injury. He’s already done it three out of his four full seasons after all.
Overvalued
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 13
The first of the overvalued high-end starting pitchers is Walker Buehler, who is currently the third SP taken behind Cole and Jacob deGrom. In dynasty leagues, this ADP would be a no brainer; in fact, it would be too low. However, for this upcoming, shortened season it feels like a reach. It’s understandable to take the young aces first in a full-length season. However, with fewer innings to go around and rumors of six-man rotations across the league, the risk of selecting the old-timers like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander is nullified. Meaning they should probably go ahead of the Buehler as they are more proven commodities
There is no denying that 2019 All-Star is an absolute stud, but there are many great pitchers to choose from. It shouldn’t be so clear cut that Buehler is the unanimous third-best SP in baseball.
For example, his 3.26 ERA (14th), 1.04 WHIP (ninth), 29.2 K% (13th), and .221 BA against (13th) are all amazing numbers to put up over 182.1 IP but they aren’t close to being the best in the league. In fact, Jack Flaherty, whose ADP is nine spots lower at 22, outperforms him in all of those categories.
It’s basically impossible to knock the Vanderbilt product, but it should be noted that he did beef up his numbers against poor opposition last season. He only had three starts against playoff teams, two against the Nationals and one against the Braves. Giving up ten earned runs across 19.1 innings, still great, but not 13th overall great.
You really have to grasp at straws to find fault with Buehler's game; he is a no-doubt SP1. It’s just that there are a handful of pitchers that could outperform him this season, and he likely won’t be tasked to go deep into games because of the Dodgers lethal offense. Taking him 13th overall and as the third pitcher of the board seems a little steep.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 41
Another preseason, another overvalued Luis Castillo. Yes, if everything clicks for the Reds ace, he will certainly live up to his current ADP, but at this point, that is a bigger "if" than fans realize.
Since getting traded to the Reds in 2017, fans have been waiting for the right-hander to become a consistent top-tier fantasy pitcher. After dominating in 2017 across Triple-A and the Major League, he took a step back in 2018. Now, after a fairly impressive 2019, the hype train is traveling full speed ahead into the upcoming season.
Castillo has one of, if not the, best change-up in baseball, and he leans on it a lot. In 2019 it became his primary pitch, throwing 32.5% of the time; 2.8% more than his fastball. It yielded fantastic results; hitters simply couldn’t get the pitch in play. Castillo leads the league in Wch (29.4) and opponents hit a measly .128 off it and had a 48.0 WHIFF%.
The baseball and fantasy community are so enamored by his changeup that they forgive the fact he doesn’t have much else in his tool kit. His four-seamer and sinker are below average for a pitcher of his caliber.
The 2019 All-Star’s second-best pitch his slider. It has been the least utilized of his four pitches in the last three seasons, even though the numbers show that it is clearly his second-most effective pitch. However, Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson told the Athletic that they are “developing the slider because guys are going to start looking for the changeup more.” Castillo featuring the slider more is one way he could possibly live up to his lofty ADP.
Castillo’s ADP is based on his stellar 2019; a 3.40 ERA, 28. K%, and 1.14 WHIP will get people excited. On the other hand, the ace had the fourth-highest BB% in baseball (10.1) and sixth-lowest BABIP (.262).
As is the case with Walker Buehler, Castillo will be a stud and an ace on any fantasy pitching staff. However, 41st seems too high to grab a player who struggles to find the zone so much. If his changeup isn’t literally the best in baseball this season, his numbers will take a hit. There isn’t really enough margin for error for a pitcher taken that high, he doesn't have anything to fall back on.
Last season his 3.95 SIERA was 19th in the league, his 1.14 WHIP and 3.70 FIP were both 20th, and yet he is the eleventh pitcher off the board. That’s just a little too much reliance on potential upside, especially in a shortened season.
Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres
ADP: 49
The Padres haven’t had a reason to be this excited about a pitcher in over a decade since Jake Peavy was winning Cy Youngs and Triple Crowns. It’s been 14 years since the California club last made the postseason so people are eager for Paddack to succeed. An ADP of 49 however, is premature at best, and could possibly derail a fantasy owner's season before it even gets started.
There are so many amazing pitchers on the board at that point in the draft, it isn’t worth the risk on a player who doesn’t have truly elite upside. The former 236th overall pick seemingly came out of nowhere in 2019 with a 3.33 ERA in 140.2 IP. However, it may be the most misleading ERA in all of baseball (well, outside of Mike Soroka).
He only really throws two pitches, a 93.4 MPH fastball, and an 84.5 MPH changeup. He sprinkles in a curveball 10.4% of the time, but he’s going to have to put one, if not two, more pitches up his sleeve if he is going to maintain success. A .395 FIP, .237 BABIP (second-lowest by a starter), and hard-hit rate of 42.1% screams that regression is coming, the question is how much?
It’s quite alarming that the 6’4” Texan is going ahead of players like Aaron Nola, and there is a chance he won’t even be the best Padre this upcoming season.
Castillo and Buehler will likely finish the season ranked below their current ADP, but they’ll still be a tremendous asset to a fantasy team. In Paddack's case, on the other hand, there is a distinct possibility that he will be taken in the first four rounds and provide a mid-round, German Marquez-level (175.80 ADP) return.
