At the halfway point of the year, teams with winning records are starting to look ahead to the playoffs. The old fantasy saying goes that you “start your studs”, but playoff-bound teams can afford to start thinking about playoff matchups. This list is less about buying low and selling high and more about finding players with favorable playoff matchups and targeting them in trades. If you have one eye towards the playoffs, a shrewd trade at this point could pay off and clinch a championship. Players to target are trending up and/or have good playoff schedules.

 

Week 9 Fantasy Football Buys 

Drew Brees (NO)

After tying the NFL single-game record for most touchdowns thrown in a game, Brees has gotten back on track to another top ten finish at the QB position. Last week I had Brees as my #1 buy low candidate overall, and his stock has soared after putting up over 500 passing yards and seven touchdowns. He has a Week 14 matchup at Tampa Bay, who has the second most passing touchdowns allowed. This is followed by two home games against Detroit and Jacksonville, who rank 20^th and 13^th in passing touchdowns and 18^th and 25^th in passing yards allowed per game. Tampa Bay and Detroit are allowing the highest QBR to opposing quarterbacks, and Jacksonville allows the seventh-highest QBR. Even better, the Saints have a porous defense that should lead to high-scoring games between both teams. As I said last week, Brees is effective based on volume alone. His Week 8 performance brought a higher price tag, but a playoff-bound team should have him as their top target.

Andrew Luck (IND)

Even after his near comeback performance on Monday night against the Panthers, Luck hasn’t looked good for fantasy owners. He leads the league in interceptions thrown despite missing two games. Owners should have had low expectations going into the Carolina game, but there may be reasons for optimism down the road. In the playoffs, he faces Jacksonville in Week 14, Houston in Week 15, and Miami in the championship week. Despite injury concerns and spotty QB play, it’s worth remembering Luck’s success in the previous three seasons. He has played 14 regular seasons games against Jacksonville, Miami, and Houston in his career. In those 14 games, he has an average QBR of 94.1 with 27 TD and 7 INT and nearly 275 passing yards per game. While Luck will struggle against teams like Carolina and his upcoming game against Denver, he looks like a sleeper stash for playoff competitors.

Nick Foles (STL)

Nick Foles is owned in less than 10% of ESPN leagues. He is ranked as the 30^th quarterback overall, averaging less than ten points per game. This is good news for teams with shaky playoff QB situations. Foles won’t start in your championship game, but his back-to-back home matchups against Tampa Bay and Detroit could help you get there. His points-per-game is brought down by some dud performances against Green Bay (1 point), Cleveland (6), and Pittsburgh (6). Removing these games gives him an average of 14.75, which is a more respectable number. While he has only topped 200 passing yards once this year, the rejuvenated run game in St. Louis should lead to more efficient passing and touchdown opportunities. You can hold off on rostering Foles for at least a week or two, but playoff teams with an open spot should consider grabbing him before other managers start looking ahead.

Jameis Winston (TB)

The Tampa Bay signal caller just put up back-to-back 19-point games on the road against underrated defenses Washington and Atlanta. He’s not a slam dunk, must-start QB, but his playoff schedule against New Orleans, St. Louis, and Chicago makes him a streaming option. When looking at quarterbacks late in the season, it’s important to consider how well they will be playing. A team giving up on its coaching staff or resting veterans late in the year can derail any chance of a fantasy championship. The Buccaneers are a competitive, young team that is actually building towards something. This can’t be said for all teams. The fact that Tampa Bay has a plan in place and looks competitive in the process encourages me that they will show up in the later weeks of the season, when nothing is on the line, and compete.

Matt Forte (CHI)

I’m trying not to fill out this list with easy picks, but Matt Forte has an intriguing playoff schedule that might make him worthy of a trade. In Week 14, he faces a Washington Redskins team ranked 30^th in rush yards per attempt (4.9) and yards per game (128.4). In his two career games against Washington, Forte has rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries. The next week has what appears to be a tough game on the road at Minnesota. Despite being ranked sixth in total defense, the Vikings are 25^th in rush yards per attempt and FootballOutsiders.com ranks them 24^th in defending the pass to running backs.

Doug Martin/Charles Sims (TB)

I’m putting these two together because 1) most people realize Doug Martin is a top RB option right now and 2) Charles Sims still isn’t getting the respect he deserves. With a porous defense and a strong desire to run the ball (6^th in rushing attempts per game), the Tampa Bay backfield is not only a must own but a must start. That includes Charles Sims, who is seeing the field on 42% of all snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a Week 14 game against New Orleans, who allow the 10^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and rank 20^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense against running backs. The Saints are 28^th in yards per rush, 24^th in rushing yards allowed per game, and 23^rd in rushing touchdowns allowed. Even though this will be a high-scoring game, look for Tampa Bay to continue rushing to provide a cushion for Jameis Winston.

T.J. Yeldon (JAC)

T.J. Yeldon could be a low-end RB1 for the rest of the season. He has a great schedule ahead with only two games against teams in the top ten of rushing defense. Aside from those games, their opponents are ranked 28th, 21st (twice), 11^th, 27^th, and 24^th in rushing yards allowed per game. Those teams have given up an average of 17 fantasy points per game, which would rank them 19^th in points allowed. Yeldon has a surprisingly tough game against Atlanta in Week 15, but it is sandwiched between games against the Colts and Saints, who are giving up the sixth- and 10^th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far. Yeldon is one of 15 running backs with 100 rush attempts or more on the season, and he has already had a bye week. Aside from his bellcow usage in the Jacksonville running game, Yeldon has shown he can also be a threat catching passes. He has 16 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown on the year. With nearly 65% of all offensive snaps and an expected decline in Toby Gerhart’s usage, Yeldon should be a great volume runner with RB1 potential.

Stevie Johnson/Malcom Floyd (SD)

As I prepared this article during the Sunday morning Snoozer Of The Week in London, I listed Keenan Allen as my top WR to buy for the playoffs and the rest of season. Unfortunately, Black Friday took yet another top-notch player out for the season. This bumps up the value of Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd immensely. Each has already shown flashes this year, but the loss of record-setting Keenan Allen leaves tons of targets and receptions for the taking. Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green also get bumps in value, but a WR1 in the San Diego system with Philip Rivers at QB is a fantasy WR2 at worst. Early predictions have Stevie Johnson being the #1 with Floyd as the #2, but it’s likely that it’s more of a 1a and 1b situation in San Diego. They are both probably a 50/50 chance for a touchdown each game after this news. It’s also worth noting that Malcom Floyd has been Rivers’ leading receiver twice, both in 2012 and 2014.

Mike Evans (TB)

Jameis Winston is one of my top quarterbacks to look at, so it makes sense that his #1 WR ill make the list. Despite 30 fantasy points in Week 7, Evans has been a slight disappointment to owners with two missed games and plenty of dropped balls. In the last two weeks, he has had 21 targets. In the remaining schedule, only Week 15 against St. Louis stands out as a game you might bench him. Otherwise, Evans is a very solid WR2 almost every week. Weeks 14 and 16 have him matched up against New Orleans and Chicago, who are giving up the 5th and 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers. With only one big game on the year, his trade value is probably lower than it should be. Evans would make a great second or third WR on almost any team. Expect consistent volume with Vincent Jackson struggling to get back on the field.

Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead (NO)

I'm including two more receivers who will benefit from great QB play down the stretch. With Brees back on pace to finish inside the top ten, Cooks should have ample opportunity to put up some fantasy points. Brandin Cooks is leading the team in targets (66) and receptions (41), but Snead's 537 receiving yards puts him ahead of Cooks. Both of these players could be targeted as flex options, but have potential to put up WR2 numbers most weeks. Snead might be a cheaper target with similar results, but Cooks has had owners scratching their heads all year. After Brees' record-setting game against the Giants in Week 8, Cooks owners are probably holding and congratulating themselves for being patient. It's not an ideal time to buy him, but Snead shouldn't be as pricey, and it's almost a tossup which player will put up better fantasy numbers each week. With a bye coming up, you might be able to delay buying on either of these with hopes that they underperform for a couple of weeks.

Jordan Matthews (PHI)

I’ve been touting Jordan Matthews as a top buy low candidate for a couple of weeks now, and it has yet to pay off. Coming off a bye week, Matthews is tied for 20^th in targets and 24^th in receptions. There are rumors of a hand injury, but the hope is that he will have healed up with a week of rest. The Philadelphia Eagles are looking at the 3^rd easiest schedule for wide receivers. It toughens up in the playoffs, with games against Buffalo, Arizona, and Washington. Although these defenses are ranked 20^th, 11^th, and 5^th in passing yards allowed per game, you’re buying Jordan Matthews with the hope that he can be a solid flex fill in.

 

Week 9 Fantasy Football Sells 

Tony Romo (DAL)

No doubt many owners are holding onto Tony Romo with the hopes that he'll have a strong finish to the season, but I advise them to sell Romo once there is serious talk about his return. Romo's schedule turns absolutely brutal starting in Week 12 - Carolina, @ Washington, @ Green Bay, New York Jets, @ Buffalo. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting Romo in any of those games. With added uncertainty about how he'll play after missing over five games, it would be hard to count on Romo putting up QB1 numbers at this position. We have seen Romo put up good fantasy numbers in the past, but a Romo returning from injured reserve is not a must-start in any one-QB league.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

With the eighth-toughest strength of schedule for quarterbacks and tough playoff games at Cincinnati and against Denver, Roethlisberger has gone from a must-start to a matchup-based QB. If you have Big Ben, you're probably starting him due to lack of choices at the position, but the loss of Le'Veon Bell and a disappointing Week 8 performance against Cincinnati at home has Ben owners worried, and rightfully so. After missing four games, it would be unfair to expect a huge game in his return to action, but Pittsburgh looked shocked and hesitant when Bell left the game. It remains to be seen if the team can rally behind the very effective D'Angelo Williams.

Carson Palmer (ARI)

As the third-ranked QB in fantasy points, Carson Palmer is red hot. Unfortunately, he has played many bad defenses. The first half of his schedule is filled out by New Orleans, San Fransisco, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cleveland. The second half of his schedule includes Seattle, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Green Bay. Palmer should still be effective, but his numbers will likely drop off due to better competition. In the playoffs, he has games against Minnesota, at Philadelphia, and at home against Green Bay. These aren't ideal matchups for your starting QB in the most important three weeks of the year. Fortunately for Palmer owners, his value is about as high as it can get right now, and I wouldn't hesitate to trade him.

Matt Ryan (ATL)

I don't want any part of the struggling Matt Ryan right now or in the playoffs. He is a borderline QB1 but failing to put up great numbers with one of the most dangerous receivers in the game. He has been turnover prone, averaging two turnovers per game in the last four weeks. In the playoffs, he faces a dominant Carolina Panthers defense twice. With how ineffective Atlanta has looked at times, it's no stretch of the imagination to expect at least one dominant performance from the Panthers defense. If Josh Norman can shut down Julio Jones, Atlanta will struggle to find an answer. Their best bet may be to run the ball, and this will take it out of Matt Ryan's hands.

Justin Forsett (BAL)

Coming off his second-worst game of the year, Justin Forsett may have hit a wall with the season-ending injury to Steve Smith, Sr. Teams can stack the box and dare Joe Flacco to throw it. Baltimore has shown that they will, in fact, throw the ball when teams dare them to, but there are no receiving threats to sustain drives. When things heat up, Flacco can really struggle. Speaking from experience, owners will be reluctant to trade away a running back averaging almost 17 carries a game, especially in the barren RB field, but it might be time to jump off the train before it derails.

DeMarco Murray (PHI)

While I’m bullish on DeMarco Murray finishing as an RB1 the rest of the year, his playoff schedule includes two teams ranked in the top six in rushing yards allowed per game (Buffalo and Arizona). Adding in his Week 16 matchup with Washington, the rush defenses he’ll face in the playoffs have only allowed nine rushing touchdowns all year. Four teams have given up nine or more touchdowns on the year individually. With a struggling 19^th ranked passing game and a 15^th ranked rushing offense, DeMarco Murray could be a fantasy dud in the playoffs. If you can trade Murray for an established RB2 like T.J. Yeldon or Doug Martin, those are trades you have to strongly consider.

Jeremy Hill (CIN)

In the playoffs, Jeremy Hill will face the 8^th ranked Pittsburgh rushing defense, 4^th ranked Denver, and 23^rd ranked San Francisco. Many are holding Hill with the hope that he can have a second half similar to his rookie year last year, but regular season games against St. Louis and Arizona will hamper his production. Of course there is also the threat of Giovani Bernard, who is back to his old ways as the 18^th ranked RB in PPR. Hill has struggled this year with only two games over 15 points, which coincidentally are the only two games he’s scored a touchdown. It’s realistic to expect RB2 production from Hill at some points this season, especially in his upcoming games against Cleveland and Houston at home, but owners should look to trade him if he has a breakout performance against these bottom-tier rushing defenses.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR)

Jonathan Stewart is 15^th in rushing yards and 7^th in rushing attempts, but his double dose of the 3^rd best rushing defense in the playoffs makes him a questionable start down the stretch. He finally has the backfield to himself, and he has been very effective this year, but he still fights for carries against Cam Newton, who ranks as the 38^th leading rusher in the NFL. In 12 career games against Atlanta, Stewart only has four touchdowns on 128 attempts. He isn’t a bad flex option in his two weeks against Atlanta, but he has borderline RB1 value right now, and an upcoming game against Green Bay could cause a slight dropoff in value. Target an RB1 with a better schedule and see if you can make the trade.

Julio Jones (ATL)

Start your studs. It would be nearly impossible to ever bench Julio Jones, and that’s why you should look to trade him before you’re stuck with awful matchups in the playoffs. It doesn’t help that Atlanta has the 15^th hardest strength of schedule for wide receivers. As I pointed out in the Matt Ryan analysis, Julio had 10 catches for 117 yards and no touchdowns in two games against Carolina last year. We are seeing Atlanta’s offense start to struggle after offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan looked to have things figured out to start the year. With Julio’s incredible value as a top three WR, you have the ability to target anyone you want. You can probably fill two holes by trading Jones.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)

Few that drafted the aging superstar expected such a great first half from him. The great play of Carson Palmer has Fitzgerald ranked as the 3^rd WR in PPR leagues with nearly 20 points per game! This can be attributed to the passing defenses he’s played in the first eight weeks, who have an average ranking of 21 in passing yards allowed per game. In the remaining eight weeks, the average of his opponents will be 14. In the playoffs, that average ranking is 15. Fitzgerald is clearly valued as a WR1, but there is a chance he has WR2 production for the rest of the year.

Travis Benjamin (CLE)

I continue to go back and forth with Travis Benjamin, who ranks 14^th in receiving yards and 19^th in receptions while also holding the coolest nickname in the league. Unfortunately for Benjamin and the Cleveland Brown offense, it looks like management is throwing in the towel on this season after going 2-6 through the first eight weeks. With Josh McCown injured, Johnny Manziel is set to start in Week 9. Although Benjamin has performed well with both quarterbacks, his games in Weeks 15 and 16 on the road at Seattle and Kansas City don’t have a positive outlook. His value has taken a hit the last two weeks with disappointing performances against Arizona and St. Louis. It doesn’t look to be any better in the next three weeks, with games on the road at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh before a bye week. Rabbit is likely to put up flex numbers in most games this year, so consider any trade that could net you a WR2.

 

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