Biggest Quarterback Surprises - Fantasy Football Year In Review

James Costanz breaks down the biggest surprises at quarterback from the 2022 fantasy football season. Who has seen their ADP affected heading into 2023?

2022 was an interesting year for fantasy football quarterbacks and managers strategizing where to take them. The popularized method of waiting until the later rounds to take a QB may have backfired for some. You were sorely disappointed if you drafted Russell Wilson or Matthew Stafford with hopes of a late-round gem.

Some fantasy managers may avoid this problem next year by drafting Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen early in 2023. That is a strong strategy that can lead to many breakout games at the QB position but will lead to missing out on early-round RBs, WRs, or any additional depth. 

Some gems at the position either did not get enough hype or weren’t even drafted by fantasy football managers. These players come from teams with mid to low expectations coming into the season. Despite those expectations, these QBs had excellent production, and all finished in the top 10 ranked fantasy QBs for 2022. Let’s examine some of the biggest surprises from the QB position in 2022.

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Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Pre-Draft ADP: 142 (QB17)
2021 Final Rank: QB31
2022 Final Rank: QB6

Some fantasy players may have targeted Justin Fields as a breakout candidate coming into 2022. His rushing ability has been highly regarded since he got drafted in 2021. The main question was whether the Bears would tailor the offense around him.

It took some time, but the Bears bought into the idea of building an offense built around Fields’ rushing ability. From Weeks 1-5, Fields only had one game with at least 10 carries. Fields had seven games from Weeks 6-17 with 10+ carries. 

Two games in particular stand out, as they show that Fields' ceiling truly can be up there with players such as Mahomes or Allen due to his rushing ability.

In Week 9, Fields had 15 carries for 178 yards (NFL rushing record for a QB) and one touchdown. Then the following week, he rushed 13 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns. For both of those games, he was the #1 fantasy QB on the week.

Despite all the rushing success, Fields still has room to grow as a passer. He finished with 200+ passing yards in just two of his 16 games. He has an outstanding arm but tends to hold onto the ball too long, which could lead to more inaccurate throws.

If he can grow as a passer, Fields will develop into one of the elite fantasy QB options due to his rushing upside. 

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Pre-Draft ADP: 195 (QB27)
2021 Final Rank: QB24
2022 Final Rank: QB10

The Detroit Lions developed into America’s team by the end of the season with a ton of support and respect throughout the league. Despite this, it does not seem like their QB receives the same affection. Jared Goff was cast aside by LA a few years ago and was expected to be nothing more than a bridge QB for Detroit in the post-Stafford era.

The narratives were proven to be inaccurate, as Goff put out a top 10 fantasy season and played well enough to keep Detroit in playoff contention through Week 18. Goff's best performance came in Week 4 at home against Seattle, finishing with 33.22 points and four touchdowns.

Goff's turnovers also significantly decreased as the season went on. From Weeks 1-9, he had 10 total turnovers but only turned the ball over once after Week 10.

The improvement of Goff behind an elite offensive line may cause Goff to be viewed as more than just a streaming option going into 2023. Also, watch for how this passing attack can further develop with the addition of Jameson Williams for an entire year.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Pre-Draft ADP: 241 (QB35)
2021 Rank: QB40
2022 Rank: QB5

If only one quarterback surprised you in 2022, it had to be Geno Smith. Geno helped the Seahawks transition from the Russell Wilson era right back into the playoffs.

Geno’s season wasn’t just an example of a QB getting carried by a good team. Geno proved on many occasions that he was good enough for both the Seahawks and your fantasy team.

His most significant attribute as a fantasy option was his consistency throughout the season. Geno finished with 2+ touchdowns in 12 games and had at least 17+ fantasy points in 11 games. He also finished eighth in total passing with 4,282 yards through the air. 

Since 2015, Geno has started in just five games for three different teams. Now, he is the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year and can command a starting QB salary going forward. To go from being a perennial backup to finishing as a top five fantasy QB is a testament to Geno’s persistence and ability. 

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