MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/1/2025)

August 1, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/1/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Noelvi Marte, Luis Robert, Shea Langeliers, and Manny Machado.

It is a typically large, full-to-be-exact slate for this Friday, August 1, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups. Additionally, we have some warm weather all across the nation as we enter the beginning of August. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 1, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Hard Rock and DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/1/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, August 1:

• Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
• Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
• Shea Langeliers, Athletics
• Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Noelvi Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings)

We are going to kick off our Friday slate with an early game between the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds. They are playing early today to make their way to Bristol, Tennessee, tomorrow for the MLB Speedway Classic. Marte makes for a solid choice against Braves right-hander Bryce Elder. Elder has struggled quite a bit, giving up the long ball, as he has allowed 17 home runs across 87 1/3 IP.

Of the 17 home runs allowed, Elder has given up 10 to right-handed hitters like Marte. He has also been hit rather hard this season. Overall, Elder has allowed an average exit velocity of 82.6 mph, which ranks him in the bottom third of the league. He has also allowed a ridiculous 30.4% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 2.0% of the league.

Additionally, Elder has struggled recently, as he has allowed a home run in six of his previous eight games and a total of nine home runs over that same span.

Enter Marte, who has now crushed seven home runs across his 40 games played. He has done exceptionally well against right-handed pitching, as noted by his .940 OPS. All seven of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching as well. While Marte's power metrics will not blow you away, he does rank inside the top 50% of the league in terms of average exit velocity (89.3 mph) and Barrels/PA (6%).

The fact that Marte will be playing in Great American Ball Park should also help his cause here.

Luis Robert OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)

Luis Robert has a fantastic opportunity to go deep tonight. The matchup is superb, the wind is blowing out, and the weather should be relatively warm. My only concern is that Robert will suddenly go into a funk since he was not traded out of Chicago. That being said, back to the matchup against Los Angeles Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson.

Anderson has allowed a total of 20 home runs this season, 12 of which have come off the bat of right-handed hitters. He has also allowed 1.3 HR/9 in at home, which is exactly where he will be tonight. Surprisingly, Anderson has not given up a ton of hard contact despite the home run totals, but he has allowed 24.9% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom third of the league.

Anderson's recency does not help him out much either. Over his previous four games, he has allowed a total of five home runs. He has also given up at least one home run in 14 of his 21 starts this season. Meanwhile, Robert has been raking against left-handed pitchers, as noted by his .990 OPS and six home runs across 90 PA this season. He has also posted some decent power metrics.

Overall, he ranks in the top half of the league in terms of average exit velocity (89.3 mph) and Barrels/PA (6.7%).

Robert should be in a great spot to go deep in a White Sox lineup that is suddenly mashing left-handed pitching, as they have the best wRC+ mark against them since the All-Star break.

Luis Robert Jr. HOME RUN! pic.twitter.com/ibJqvp29Az

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) July 11, 2025

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Shea Langeliers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+325 Hard Rock)

Shea Langeliers was not someone I thought I would be writing up tonight, but the matchup and park cannot be ignored here. Langeliers has not been too shabby himself, either. Over the previous week, Langeliers has hit four home runs while posting an OPS of 1.181. He has also mashed 18 total home runs this season, and does relatively well against right-handed pitching, as 14 of his 18 home runs have come against them.

Langeliers has also shown great power metrics this season, which should be expected given his home run total. He has posted an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph, which ranks him in the top third of the league. He has also posted a 34.9% hard hit rate and a Barrels/PA mark of 7.8%, ranking in the top 35% and 20%, respectively.

He will be up against Diamondbacks right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who has had his share of issues in limited action.

Thus far in 2025, DeSclafani has pitched just 23 1/3 innings, yet has already given up five dingers. He has also allowed 2.0 HR/9 on the road since 2023, which is precisely where he will be tonight in Sacramento, where the ball flies. Of the five home runs he has allowed this season, four have come off the bats of right-handed hitters, like the aforementioned Langeliers.

Make that 3️⃣ straight games with a home run for Shea Langeliers! pic.twitter.com/2Ic3PNqEq1

— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2025

Manny Machado OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings)

Manny Machado has hit 20 home runs this season and has smacked three home runs over the previous 21 days while posting an OPS of 1.082. He has been even hotter over the last week, posting an OPS of 1.409. His power metrics back up the home runs as well.

On the season, Machado has posted an average exit velocity of 93.0 mph, which ranks him in the top 5.0% of qualified hitters. He has also posted a Barrels/PA mark of 9.9%, which also ranks him in the top 5.0% of baseball. Left-handed pitchers, like Matthew Liberatore, have been hit pretty hard by Machado, as noted by his .895 OPS and 10 home runs. Liberatore has had struggles as well.

Liberatore has allowed a total of nine home runs and a .273 BAA to right-handed hitters this season. He has also given up three home runs across his previous 12 1/3 IP. The hard contact has not been anything to write home about for Liberatore, either. Overall, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 84.5 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 1.0% of the league.

He also has a Barrels/BBE mark of 5.6%, which ranks him in the bottom 20% of the league.

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