MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (3/28/2026)

March 28, 2026

Kevin Larson's best MLB player prop bets for today (3/28/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Teoscar Hernandez.

Welcome to Saturday, RotoBallers! The first weekend of the season is here, and I’m excited to bring you more home run picks this season. Finding HR picks helped me discover some new favorite players last season (Hello James Wood), and I’m hopeful more players become new favorites this season. We’ve got a lot of time to find those new favorites, so let’s go ahead and start that out today.

I’ll give you four HR bets today, and I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. Also, volatility runs rampant early in the season, so let’s keep a lower bet size to start while we wait for strong trends to emerge.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, March 28, 2026. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (3/28/2028)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, March 28.

Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 Fanatics)

This early in the season, there’s usually not much data to go off of, so we’ll aim for two main drivers to get us rolling: Batter vs Pitcher stats and Spring Training stats. This makes Miles Mikolas a prime target to pick on today. He has not enjoyed his recent time facing the Chicago Cubs and is not doing well in Spring Training.

Busch has a very solid history against Mikolas, hitting three homers against the new National in 16 AB. His .591 wOBA against the 37-year-old is rather true, also with a .514 xwOBA. He sees Mikolas well, and that's going to be important this early in the season.

To say that Miles Mikolas is having a less than stellar July 4 would be an understatement

6 HRs given up including 2 apiece for PCA and Michael Busch. Busch’s 2nd one was a TANK

109.6 mph EV
428 ft 🫣
34° LA pic.twitter.com/Dqfa7O3D1R

— Baseball Unstitched (@BaseUnstitched) July 4, 2025

As for the stats, Busch posted a 20.6% HR/FB rate at Wrigley last season. Mikolas posted his worst numbers on the road, including a 19.1% HR/FB rate. Mikolas relied on his four-seamer against lefties last season, and that did not go well for him. Conversely, Busch crushed four-seamers last season. Give him a chance against Mikolas' four seamer, and we'll have a great shot at cashing this.

Mikolas has also given up nine homers combined in his last two trips to Wrigley Field. He also got demolished by lefties on the road last season, so we’re in a good spot.

It may be cold in Chicago on Saturday, but Busch’s left-handed bat should be hot.

Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 Bet365)

Speaking of left-handed bats at Wrigley Field, no one may be happier to start against Mikolas than PCA. Of those nine homers that Mikolas has given up in his last two starts at Wrigley, Crow-Armstrong has hit three of them.

As for BvP stats, we see even more advantages for PCA. He’s 7-9 in his career vs Mikolas with five homers. Nearly everything he's putting in play is hit hard, and that's something we need to look for in a home run bet.

MLB Hitters To Watch 9/26 (Data: @RotoWire)

Michael Busch - .385 AVG & 1.231 OPS with 2 HR in 13 AB vs. Miles Mikolas

Nico Hoerner - .361 AVG & .806 OPS in 36 AB vs. Miles Mikolas

Ian Happ - .318 AVG & .802 OPS in 44 AB vs. Miles Mikolas

Pete Crow-Armstrong - .857 AVG & 3.571… pic.twitter.com/whT5BN7Lnq

— Tobey Schulman (@tschulmanreport) September 26, 2025

Expect PCA to see some four-seamers here as he didn't hit for a high average against them last season, though he did hit 11 HR off the pitch. Sliders and curves will be the next options Mikolas chooses against Crow-Armstrong. He tallied 21 of his 31 homers last season against those three pitches, so we've got a good shot that he adds onto that on Saturday.

The lefty hasn’t had a great Spring Training, but he did post a .965 OPS in the World Baseball Classic with two longballs. The power’s there, and he should be able to get on the right track in a matchup against the former Cardinal.

Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 FanDuel)

Let’s head to the late slate, where we get a division matchup between the Dodgers and the DBacks. We’ll back Hernandez, who’s been a menace against lefties. He gets a matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, who he’s hit incredibly well in the past.

Teoscar Hernandez takes Tarik Skubal deep for a three-run shot and the Dodgers take the lead! pic.twitter.com/8jd4kAlYgw

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 28, 2025

Hernandez owns a .514 wOBA against Rodriguez and has three homers off the left-hander. He’s also been scorching hot through Spring Training, smashing five longballs already for a 241 wRC+.

That’s good enough for me to back the Dodgers’ lefty, who should have plenty of protection around him in the lineup that makes him a sneaky threat.

But in case you need more convincing, let's dive into pitch mix. Rodriguez attacked righties last season with a trio of four-seamers, changeups, and cutters. Last season, Hernandez did most of his HR damage against four-seamers. He didn't hit any longballs off changeups but posted a 129 wRC+ against them.

That gives me confidence that he'll put a good swing on one of those two pitches and that he'll get one in the air. If it's anything like Spring Training, then there's a good chance he cashes this for us.

Andrew Vaughn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 Bet365)

It's a revenge series for Vaughn in a matchup against Sean Burke that looks pretty solid for the 27-year-old. "King Vaughn" took Milwaukee by storm after his arrival last season, and we're looking for him to smash one out of the park on Saturday.

Let's start with why we're fading Burke. Last season, he had a 47.2% flyball rate on the road against righties. That's immediately a great stat to target. Vaughn posted a 46.6% flyball rate at home against righties, unsurprisingly his best home run scenario.

As for the pitch mix, we're aiming for two pitches from Burke that Vaughn can mash: four-seamers and sliders. Specifically, the pitch that's likely to get punished is sliders. Burke gave up eight homers on sliders to righties last season, his top home run pitch.

Andrew Vaughn's early NFBC ADP in 14 Draft Champion drafts is 312.

Looks like I'm going to be having a lot of Vaughn shares in 2026 at that price.

Vaughn was in the top 33% of hitters in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, AVG EV, BRL%, HH%, Sweet-Spot%, Contact%, and K%.pic.twitter.com/nUHVArV37z

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) November 17, 2025

Vaughn had a .334 wOBA and a .374 xwOBA against sliders last season, meaning as well as he did against them, there's even more in the tank. Burke's slider graded out at an 86 last season according to Stuff+, meaning it's below league average.

If he hangs one against Vaughn, then it's going to go a long way. And that's exactly what we're looking for.

That's it for today's picks. Let's have ourselves a day!

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