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Happy Opening Day, RotoBallers! I'm sure I can speak for all of you when I say that I'm thrilled to have a full season of baseball on tap to grind through this spring, summer, and fall. What a refreshing feeling!
If you missed my intro article on Tuesday, my name is Tommy Bell (@BellRoto on Twitter), and I'll be publishing a daily article with premium MLB betting analysis and plays every day of the baseball season, barring some days off.
I'll be posting my plays by 10 am each day, and I'll update and add any plays as needed on Twitter @BellRoto. I'll also keep a running tab there and banter with my followers whenever possible, so come join the fun (and I recommend turning on alerts)!
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MLB Opening Week Intro
Before we jump into a few plays to start of the 2021 MLB Season, keep in mind that the first couple of weeks of the MLB grind are very much a time of learning and adjustment to the trends and analysis we used from last season. A lot of what I lean on in the first handful of plays is how my gut says a team will look, what I know hasn't changed much from last season, and how the market seems to be treating a team. Then, as we begin to get a larger sample size of statistics and performances from 2021, we can factor those things in more and more. PLEASE always bet responsibly, especially early in the season, and NEVER wager more than you're comfortable losing.
If you EVER have any questions on a specific game or just my process in general, don't hesitate to reach on Twitter @BellRoto. Getting to throw different stances, angles, and opinions back and forth with followers and fellow sports bettors is by far my favorite aspect of incorporating Twitter into this series. Let's play ball!!
As a reminder, this series will be free access for all readers for the first three days of the season. Starting Sunday, only Premium Betting subscribers will get access to Bell's Best Bets. To sign up, follow the link here, and be sure to use the promo code BELL for 10% off. Reach out on Twitter with any questions or concerns!
MLB Plays for 4/1/2021
New York Yankees -1.5 (+112) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Risking 1 unit
Gerrit Cole is a star, and if it weren't for Jacob deGrom, he might be the best pitcher in the league. It should be a pitcher's paradise up north for the first few days of the season, as temperatures will barely touch 50 degrees and the breeze will make it feel much colder than that. Hyun Jin Ryu has become a solid ace of the Blue Jay's staff, but asking him to get through this deep Yankee's lineup three times unscathed is tough, and that's what he'll need to do against Cole.
On top of the Yankee's bottom of the order as a distinct advantage in this one, I like the Yankees bullpen better as well, especially considering that the Jays are shuffling things around at the back end with Kirby Yates done for the year. While I'd feel better having Aroldis Chapman or Zack Britton around, I'm confident that Cole can cruise for seven innings before handing it over to Darren O'Day and Chad Green, two very polished back end guys. I see something like Yankees 5-2 in this one.
St. Louis Cardinals (Even) at Cincinnati Reds
Risking 1 unit
We saw a crazy opening line favoring the Cardinals up in the -170 range when this first came out, and the Reds backers went crazy bringing it down to even money. Now there's some buy back happening with St. Louis, and while I couldn't fathom -170, I do think the Cards are the better team, and better teams tend to win more often than not on Opening Day.
With the addition of Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals batting order has become a nightmare up top. They are not nearly as dangerous as, let's say, the Yankees in the 5-8 spots, but there are some quietly potent bats in names like Tyler O'Neil and Dylan Carlson waiting to take the next step. The Reds have plenty of potential in their lineup as well, but I don't see the star power anchoring them quite like I see for the Cards. I also like the way the Cardinals stack up on defense for fielding purposes much better than Cincinnati.
The pitching matchup is where I look when I make this more like a Cardinals -120 favorite personally. I'm not ready to put Luis Castillo in front of Jack Flaherty just yet, as I much prefer Flaherty's mix and approach. Castillo can rack up strike outs, but I think St. Louis is patient enough to make things interesting, especially in his first start of the year. While I like the addition of Sean Doolittle for Cincy, I think the rest of the 'pen has a lot to prove still, and I side with St. Louis there as well. Give me the Cardinals in a close one.
Chicago White Sox (-120) at Los Angeles Angels
Risking 1.2 units
I've said more than I planned to in the first two games, so I'll make this one quick. Lucas Giolito is a HUGE advantage over Dylan Bundy, who has always had the breaking stuff to be an ace, but can never seem to put it together.
While the Angels are extremely dangerous in the 2-4 spots of their order, I don't see much punch outside of that, so I'm penciling in Giolito for 2-3 runs given up to the combo of Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon, and nothing else for the rest of the order for 6-7 innings. Meanwhile, the White Sox are littered with young and veteran studs from top to bottom, even after the departure of Eloy Jimenez in Spring Training due to injury. Bundy could be in for a long day if the HR/FB and BB/9 rates start to regress from the improvements we saw in the small sample size last year.
Reminders:
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