RADIO
Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Bermuda Championship.
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-39-8), netting over 45 units of profit and slightly over a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Free Head-To-Head Selection
Will Zalatoris -110 over Brendon Todd
Reasons I Liked the Play:
A general overpricing on Brendon Todd is taking place because of his victory at the venue last season. I'm never going to be one that places a ton of weight onto course history, but a sample size of just one tournament further decreases the value that goes into that performance. Zalatoris is the deserving favorite at the Bermuda Championship, and one could argue that Todd might be closer to 35/1 without that victory in his back pocket.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
A "fade" candidate occurs for a ton of different reasons. One of those explanations is sometimes a golfer is just listed in the wrong range. Todd is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the world and does great work on Bermuda greens. However, all of that only goes so far when the math doesn't add up for an incorrectly priced golfer. Against a different opponent, I might not be as willing to oppose the 35-year-old for the week, but it is challenging to discredit what my numbers are saying for the three-time PGA Tour winner when he is facing one of the premier players in the field. Essentially, Todd is a fade for me because of where he is being projected, and I have this properly priced at right around -145.
1.10 Units to Win 1.00
Free Top-20
Brian Stuard 3/1
Brian Stuard just missed my premium top-20 card by fractions of a percent but will get his time in the limelight for this article. The 161st-ranked player in the world enters the week off of back-to-back missed cuts, but the overall layout of the tournament should bode well for his chances to find success. Stuard is ranked 15th compared to the field over his last 24 rounds with his irons, and it shouldn't hurt matters that he grades out inside the top-35 of the field in both overall par-three scoring and par-four scoring between 350-450 yards. Stuard's ranking of fifth overall between that crucial distance should help his chances to find success at Port Royal, and the easiness of the layout will only become more amplified since he doesn't have to deal with egregious yardages that will make him uncomfortable.
0.25 Units to Win 0.75
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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (16-12-3)
3.75 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
| Genesis Invitational | Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 | MC (+4) | MC (+6) | Win | 1.44 |
| WGC Mexico | Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 | T53 (+3) | T6 (-13) | Loss | -1 |
| Honda Classic | Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+8) | T11 (-1) | Loss | -1.2 |
| Charles Schwab | Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
| RBC Heritage | Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth | .90 Units to Win 0.62 | T14 (-16) | T68 (-4) | Win | 0.62 |
| Travelers Championship | Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel | 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (-2) | MC (-2) | Push | 0 |
| Rocket Mortgage | Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk | 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 | T12 (-14) | T21 (-13) | Win | 1.17 |
| Workday | Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+14) | T39 (-4) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers | 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 | MC (+1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka | 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -1.15 |
| 3M Open | Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab | 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 | T41 (-9) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.15 |
| PGA Championship | Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed | 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 | T13 (-7) | T13 (-7) | Push | 0 |
| Wyndham Championship | Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | T9 (-16) | T59 (-5) | WIn | 1 |
| Northern Trust | Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 | T58 (-6) | T44 (-8) | Loss | -1.35 |
| Safeway Open | Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 | T14 (-15) | T29 (-13) | Win | 1.32 |
| U.S. Open | Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth | 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 | T23 (+10) | MC (+14) | Win | 1.17 |
| Corales Puntacana | Denny McCarthy -120 over Henrik Stenson | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | T41 (-6) | T21 (-9) | Win | -1.2 |
| Sanderson Farms | Brian Harman +110 over Byeong Hun An | 1.75 Units to Win 1.93 | T37 (-6) | MC (+4) | Win | 1.93 |
| Shriners Open | Cameron Smith -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T24 (-15) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
24-23-0 (+3.49 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Sony Open | Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| American Express | Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Waste Management | Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Pebble Beach | Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Pebble Beach | Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Pebble Beach | Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
| Genesis Invitational | Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | 67th (+10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.1 |
| WGC Mexico | Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 | 11th (-11) | T51 (+2) | Win | 1.15 |
| Honda Classic | Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-2) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Arnold Palmer | Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day | 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 | MC (+5) | WD | Win | 0.73 |
| Arnold Palmer | Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 | MC (+7) | T9 (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Arnold Palmer | Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed | 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 | 3rd (-2) | T15 (+3) | Win | 0.76 |
| Charles Schwab | Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson | 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 | MC (+6) | T7 9-13) | Loss | -0.75 |
| RBC Heritage | Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 | MC (+6) | MC (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Memorial | Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T13 (+1) | Loss | -1 |
| Memorial | Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T54 (+9( | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Memorial | Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners | 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -0.88 |
| Memorial | Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (+5) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -1.1 |
| 3M Open | Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman | 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 | T62 (-3) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.5 |
| 3M Open | Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -0.7 |
| 3M Open | Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (E) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston | 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 | T9 (-16) | MC (E) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas | 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | MC (+2) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk | 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | T51 (-6) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson | 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (+2) | T3 (-18) | Loss | -0.65 |
| Northern Trust | Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie | 0.80 Units to win 0.70 | T8 (-15) | T49 (-7) | Win | 0.7 |
| Northern Trust | Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley | 0.77 Units to win 0.70 | MC (+8) | T8 (-15) | Loss | -0.77 |
| Northern Trust | Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson | 0.74 Units to win 0.70 | MC (+3) | T6 (-16) | Loss | -0.74 |
| Tour Championship | Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na | 0.80 Units to win 0.70 | T18 (-5) | T27 (+1) | Win | 0.7 |
| Tour Championship | Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl | 0.85 Units to win 1.20 | T24 (E) | 30 (+4) | Win | 1.2 |
| Tour Championship | Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson | 0.65 Units to win 1.11 | T12 (-9) | 1 (-21) | Loss | -0.65 |
| Tour Championship | Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson | 0.45 Units to win 1.22 | T2 (-18) | 1 (-21) | Loss | -0.45 |
| Corales Puntacana | Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners | 0.7 Units to win 0.70 | T28 (-8) | MC (+2) | Win | 0.7 |
| Corales Puntacana | Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder | 0.70 Units to win 0.77 | T33 (-7) | T52 (-5) | Win | 0.77 |
| Corales Puntacana | Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III | 0.70 Units to win 0.70 | 5 (-14) | MC (E) | Win | 0.7 |
| Sanderson Farms | Hudson Swafford -110 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.25 Units to win 1.14 | MC (+2) | T12 (-13) | Loss | -1.25 |
2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Patrick Reed | WGC Mexico | 50 | 1 |
| Sungjae Im | Honda Classic | 35 | 1 |
| Dustin Johnson | Travelers Championship | 30 | 1 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | U.S. Open | 33 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Abraham Ancer | RBC Heritage | 125 | 2 |
| Billy Horschel | Wyndham Championship | 33 | 2 |
| Justin Thomas | Tour Championship | 6 | 2 |
| Justin Thomas | ZOZO Championship | 12 | 2 |
| Max Homa | 3M Open | 80 | 3 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | BMW Championship | 40 | 3 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Adam Hadwin | Rocket Mortgage | 70 | 4 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Tony Finau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Jason Day | PGA Championship | 66 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Joaquin Niemann | RBC Heritage | 200 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | WGC Mexico | 11 | 6 |
| Xander Schauffele | WGC-St.Jude | 22 | 6 |
| Jon Rahm | Northern Trust | 16 | 6 |
| Charley Hoffman | Sanderson Farms | 66 | 6 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | Sanderson Farms | 80 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Bubba Watson | CJ Cup | 100 | 7 |
| Russell Henley | Honda Classic | 100 | 8 |
| Maverick McNealy | Rocket Mortgage | 100 | 8 |
| Tony Finau | Memorial | 66 | 8 |
| Webb Simpson | U.S. Open | 50 | 8 |
| Luke List | Corales Puntacana | 66 | 8 |
| Patrick Reed | Wyndham Championship | 16 | 9 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
| Dustin Johnson | Genesis Invitational | 15 | 10 |
| Xander Schauffele | PGA Championship | 35 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI
2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI
2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
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