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Ben Holmes evaluates starting pitchers to pick up or add off waivers in week three of the 2020 fantasy baseball season. These SP could be sleepers and breakouts worth rostering.
11 days of baseball down, hopefully another 58 to go. For all those who picked up Pablo Lopez, or Matt Shoemaker for two starts, it was a rough way to start the season. That’s just the reality of how this year is going to play out. The schedule will take completely unforeseen turns at a moment’s notice, we've just got to roll with the punches and hope for the best.
That’s why moving forward it would be wise to shift the focus slightly more on a pitcher’s ability as opposed to his matchups. Of course, matchups should still be taken into consideration but in 2020 there is no guarantee that juicy matchup with the Marlins or Orioles will even take place. Therefore it's best to make additions to your roster that are as "matchup proof" as possible.
Speaking of which, as of Friday, the Baltimore ball club is averaging five runs a game. Meanwhile, the Juan Soto-less World Series Champs are averaging 3.4 runs. So, in this upside-down season do we even know what a favorable matchup looks like anyway? With all that being said here are the waiver wire pickups at starting pitcher entering fantasy week three. If the descriptions didn’t give it away, the players are listed in order of waiver wire priority.
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Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
18% rostered
Here’s the story of Cristian Javier so far. He was a bonafide stud in the minors, winning Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2019. He is the sixth-ranked prospect in the Astros organization and owns a 13.5 K/9 across three minor-league stops in 2019. He was then suddenly is called up to face the best lineup in baseball. In his Major League debut, he proceeds to strike out eight Dodgers, a team that even after that start only average 6.86 strikeouts per game. He gave up one earned run, one walk, and two hits. Next up comes a Diamondbacks team who average 2.8 runs a game, are hitting .196 as a team, and are bottom of the league with just two dongs.
Look at that resume, he couldn’t have dreamed for a better start to his career, and yet he is still only 18% owned. Justin Verlander isn’t walking through that door any time soon. As long as Javier keeps pitching anywhere close to how he did in his debut, he will be in Houston to say. His BB/9 was right around 4 in his minor-league career, which is the only concern to be had about the Dominican. However, that’s definitely a bridge to cross if you come to it, the upside his too high to let it hold you back, especially knowing how good the Astros are at developing aces.
Get this guy rostered, his upside is twice as high as anyone’s on this list for this season.
Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
33% rostered
After an off-season and "summer training" of uncertainty surrounding Singer's status with the big-league club, he only went and started their second game of the season. He three-hit the Indians, giving up two runs, walking two, and striking out seven in five innings. That’s quite the debut.
He then followed it up with a similar outing against the surprisingly not terrible Tigers. Again 2 ER, and 2 BB, but just three Ks in five innings. At 23-years-old the sky is the limit for the 2018 first-round pick. He has a great 94mph sinker, 83.7mph slider combo, but unfortunately, that’s all he really has at the moment. He’ll have to develop his change-up and add another pitch to his arsenal in the future, but for fantasy purposes, it should do for now.
Next week he looks to be a two-start pitcher with tough matchups against the Cubs and Twins. That’s if he keeps a regular schedule. Between the COVID-19 uncertainty and the way, organizations treat young arms that’s no guarantee. Singer is a player who should be rostered based on the combination of his current production backing up his pedigree. However, he likely won't scratch the surface of his potential until next season.
Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels
34% rostered
2019 was not the debut season Griffin Canning was hoping for. Shoulder inflammation derailed an otherwise promising campaign. However, this season the L.A native will be looking to stay healthy and put it all together. The 2017 2nd round pick certainly started off on the right track with an encouraging first start of the season against Oakland.
In that start, he gave up three runs in 4.1 innings leaving his ERA a little worse for wear but that will come down in no time. What’s important is the seven strikeouts, five of which came on the curveball. It was also impressive how he didn't seem to rely on one pitch, he threw the fastball and slider 25 times and the curveball 24 times. He sprinkled in the change-up eight times and didn’t give up a hit on it.
It'll be a thought matchup for him on Saturday night against the Astros but don't be to alarmed if he doesn't dominate. Not many do against Houston.
His 15.8% swinging-strike rate in that outing is another great indicator that Canning could be making up for lost time and firing on all cylinders this season. It’s a small sample size but perhaps the fact he did get hit hard and gave up some runs was actually good for fantasy purposes. This way the smart owners can sneak in and grab him now before he gets into form.
Matt Shoemaker, Toronto Blue Jays
20% rostered
Congratulations to all those who read the last starting pitcher waiver wire article, and picked up Shoemaker. The reward for doing so was six innings of one-run ball, four strikeouts, a 0.83 WHIP, and a quality start against a good Rays team. Unfortunately, his second start against the Phillies was postponed due to COVID-19 related issues within the Phillies organization. He’ll likely get his next start against a slumping Ronald Acuna and the Atlanta Braves.
According to Baseball Savant Shoemaker threw his curveball eight times in his first start of the season. In five games last year, he threw it a total of ten times. If the bearded veteran can utilize that pitch to compliment his great Split Finger, he will be making hitters look even more lost at the plate than he usually does.
It’s always been a question of health with the former Angel, but as long as he’s healthy he is an asset on a fantasy roster.
Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians
42% rostered
Wow, 8 IP, 11 K, 0 BB, a 0.38 WHIP, and a 20.4% swinging strike rate against the Chicago White Sox. Take a bow, Zach Plesac. With that being said, don’t expect this kind of start every time out. Adam Plutko tamed the Windy City team with relative ease the day before, and on the 28th Aaron Civale struck out nine in six innings. So perhaps the south-side Chicago squad is just the ultimate swing-and-miss team.
This start came out of nowhere, his track record isn't particular jaw-dropping and he didn't exactly make many 2020 breakout lists. The 25-year-old could definitely be set for an impressive sophomore season but not to this extent. His K-BB% will likely finish a lot closer to the 10.1 it was last season, than the 40.7 it currently sits at.
Luckily Plesac figures to miss the thunderous Twins, but the Reds are no joke either. The Indian's fifth starter is set for a Monday start against Cincinnati and usually would be a two-start pitcher. However, the Indians are scheduled five days off between Thursday the 6th and Tuesday the 11th of August.
The righty featured his slider much more in his previous outing than he did last season. Plesac himself said he is trying to throw more off-speed pitches this season. The fastball did dip one mph in this start, but it still sits at a healthy 92.9 mph.
Sorry to put a damper on the new-found Zach Plesac hype. However, he is still worth picking up with caution in the small chance the 362nd pick in 2016 turns into the most improved player in baseball. Heck, if it is a legitimate indication of what to come, the Indians will have the best rotation in baseball.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
37% rostered
The best way to describe Burnes's first start of the season against the Cubs on the 25th was “short and sweet.” One run on just two hits while striking out six in three and a third is great, especially considering that all but one hit came in the first inning. Let’s be generous and chalk that up to nerves.
Control is the biggest question mark for the hard-throwing righty. It came to be an issue again, giving up three walks. Simply put, however, there is a reason that a pitcher who last year had an 8.82 ERA in 49IP is 37% owned. In 2019 he had a 29.8 K%, to slightly make up for his 8.5 BB% and he was the victim of an astronomical .414 BABIP.
People are excited to see what he can do in 2020 because when Burnes is on, his stuff is lights out. The fastball sits at 96.9MPH, his cutter 94.6MPH, and even his change-up is even 87.8MPH. Whether that’s good or bad is debatable. Maybe he would be better served to differentiate the velocity of his off-speed stuff a bit more.
Another reason for optimism is that the righty has proven he can pitch at this level. In 38 innings of relief work in 2018 he had a much more attractive 2.61 ERA, and there is no real reason he can’t get back to that level but as a starter.
Initially, Burnes was slated to face St. Louis on Friday night but the game was postponed due to two positive tests from the Cardinals. Keep an eye on if his leash extends past the 75 pitches he threw against the Cubies, whenever that start may come.
Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
24% rostered
It doesn’t make much sense to pretend to know when the Phillies will play again. They have played a grand total of three games this season. They won’t be playing their series against the Blue Jays this weekend either as all activities at Citizens Banks Park have been canceled. According to an ESPN article published on Thursday, July 30th, “Major League Baseball said it would coordinate with health experts and the MLBPA concerning the Phillies' return to play.”
It’s likely that Howard will see some playing time this season, the question is when. Who knows how much work these starters are getting in while they are not playing. Not to mention he is simply better than Jake Arrieta, Vince Valasquez, and Zach Eflin at this point.
The 45th overall pick in 2017 had a 2.35 ERA, 11.15 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, and 0.59 HR/9 in 30.2IP in Double-A last season. Those were all career-worst numbers by the way. He pitched 35 innings at High-A and had better stats in every category. Also, in 2018 he pitched 112 innings in A ball so a pitch count wouldn’t be much of an issue in a normal season, let alone this condensed one.
It’s unclear how much “catch-up” teams with postponed games will have to do. By being forced to miss so many games there could be a lot of doubleheaders in the Phillies future. In which case Howard will be needed to step up.
The chances an owner has roster space to stash a prospect in such a short season isn’t that high. On the other hand, take a chance, and have some guts. Cut bait with a mediocre hitter, or perhaps one of the handful of struggling closers. Pick up the 24-year-old and be rewarded when the time comes.
Chris Bassitt. Oakland Athletics
27% rostered
With AJ Puk still on the injured list with a shoulder strain, and Bassitt doing a solid job against the Angels, he looks to have strengthened his grip on a starting job in the A’s rotation. He was pulled after four innings after reaching a pre-determined pitch count of 70. He struck out five, walked one, and allowed just five hits. Meaning he's still the proud owner of a pristine 0.00 ERA after his first outing.
Bassitt shouldn’t be overlooked on the waiver wire. He pitches for a good, young A’s team, and while he relies heavily on his sinker, he does have four other pitchers to keep hitters honest. He was a late bloomer due to various injuries including having Tommy John surgery in 2016, maybe some owners hold that against him. Fair enough, last season at the ripe old age of 30 was the first time he threw over 86 innings in a season. However, a 3.81 ERA, 8.81 K/9, and 10-5 record in 144 IP is no joke.
He should pad his stats even further on Sunday against the Mariners. Although to be fair, Seattle is in the top ten in the league in OBP, SLG, OPS, and as high as third in AVG. It's worthwhile adding that as of Friday, in true Seattle fashion, they have a 3-4 record to show for all that success at the plate.
If the A’s schedule is not interrupted, the righty is scheduled to face the Astros. Don’t start him in that matchup no matter how good his stats look after two games. Unless of course it’s a daily lineup league and it’s a desperation play.
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
12% rostered
If people were to predict which pitcher would take a no-hitter the deepest into a game thus far, it would be a long list before getting to Kelly. However, that’s what he did into the seventh inning against the Rangers on Tuesday. Frankly, the 31-year-old looked dominant, mixing up his pitches well. With that being said, don’t overreact to this start.
Tread lightly with the Houston native. Kelly has a track record of mediocracy (at best,) he also plays for a team that currently has the worst offense in baseball and the chances of him breaking out at 31 aren't exactly favorable. Oh, not to mention the D-backs next opponents after the Dodgers are a murderers row of the Astros, Rockies, Padres, and A’s.
The priority level of picking up Kelly is fairly low, which is reflected in his ownership percentage even after his great start. However, he is a veteran coming off his first full major league season. Perhaps he picked up a thing or two in 2019 and he’s at least guaranteed to provide innings. Be extra careful in leagues that factor wins and losses while the D-backs struggle to put runs on the board.
Daniel Ponce De Leon, St. Louis Cardinals
3% rostered
Most of the players that feature on this waiver wire entice fantasy owners with dazzling starts the week prior. Well, try this on for size, 3 ER and 3 BB in 3.2 IP. Calm down people, don’t everyone run out to put in claims at once. Okay, sarcasm aside there was more to this start than meets the eye.
First of all, it was against the Minnesota Twins; they still have a deadly lineup even if they haven’t yet recaptured the powerful form they had last season. Also, eight strikeouts is a great total for the player that’ll affectionately be called DPDL. Granted, his control is basically none existent, the reason he was pulled after 3.2 IP is because it took him 85 pitches to make it that far. In 48.2 IP last season his BB/9 was an alarming 4.81.
The fact he walks and strikes out so many batters is even more remarkable considering last season he threw his fastball 70% of the time. That seems almost impossible, but the encouraging part is if he is able to bring that down and improve the curveball that he featured in his last start, things may turn around. Miles Mikolas is out for the season so if DPDL is given the chance to prove himself with another start he’ll have to really bring his A-game.
This is a speculative, upside based, deep-league pick-up. Unfortunately now with news of the Cardinals having to postpone games due to COVID-19 it probably isn’t worth spending a roster spot on DPDL at the moment, but definitely keep an eye out for when he will make his next start.
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