The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 3)

August 3, 2020

David Emerick's Baller Ranks are a weekly fantasy baseball rankings list for the top 200 hitters. He ranks and analyzes updated hitter values for Week 3 of MLB.

Welcome to fantasy baseball if MLB's season were more like the XFL. Between injuries, illness, and inexplicable flukes, this season has already shown the potentially disastrous consequences of an otherwise quiet road-trip to Atlanta.

This weeks' news about the Miami-Philadelphia and St. Louis-Milwaukee situations has provided new variables, and managers are scrambling to keep up with everything. Teams are using their players in bizarre and unexpected ways, Sergio Romo earned a save before Taylor Rogers even took the field, and Mike Trout has left for paternity leave (congratulations to him, of course).

In the middle of all that, here is this week's top-200 hitters and The Baller Ranks list itself. If you are new to The Baller Ranks, we have an intro and a guide for you. You can also view the full Baller Ranks here.

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The Top 200 Hitters for Fantasy Baseball - Week 3

Ballers of Note

Corey Seager (SS, Dodgers)

It's easy to forget that Seager looked like an elite shortstop at the start of his career. However, a torn UCL derailed him in 2018, and it's frequently overlooked that a Tommy-John surgery hinders a hitter for about two months after he returns. Seager had started heating up in June last year when he tore his hamstring, but from July 1^st until the end of the season, Seager put up a 118 wRC+ with a  .277 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate. That's right, 50%.

So far this season, Seager owns more barrels (7) than anyone else in the league, and he has a 62.7% hard-hit rate. Somehow, Seager's .452 wOBA is trailing behind his xwOBA of .656. It's hard to project Seager too far up the board too quickly. Shortstop is deep, and it has been only eight games, but another week like this, and he'll be jumping up into the next tier.

Brandon Lowe (2B, Rays)

Among the dozens of things that I never did this spring was to write an article on the criminal under-drafting of the Lowe brothers from Tampa Bay. While Nate Lowe wastes away on the Rays' practice squad, Brandon Lowe has been lighting up the Eastern seaboard. Given his modest ADP, that may come as a surprise, but remember that Brandon Lowe owned a 178 wRC+ at AAA in 2018. In 2019 he put up a 125 wRC+ with 17 HR, 42 R, 51 RBI, and 5 SB in 82 games. His MLB time was shortened by injury, and the projection systems were oddly cool on him.

Lowe has started this season by racking up six extra-base hits in eight games, and like Luis Robert below, Lowe's max exit velocity suggests that he will significantly outperform his projections for this season. Notably, THE BAT X, which relies heavily on Statcast data, is the most optimistic about Lowe for this season.

Second base has a unique cluster between Whit Merrifield and Jeff McNeil, but Lowe looks like he should finish in that neighborhood (maybe better) with a line of 28-9-28-2-.260.

Yordan Alvarez (DH, Astros)

The good news is that Alvarez is through the MLB Covid-19 protocol and able to take batting practice. Unfortunately, Dusty Baker reported that it would be a while before Alvarez rejoins the team.

Given how long Alvarez has been gone, it's not likely that he's going to show up and start cranking out dingers, no matter how much my heart wants it. That's reflected by a drop of $6.5 off his seasonal value. Without knowing his real condition or timeline, it's hard to project him, so I've shaved ten additional games off his rest-of-season value. My hope is that he'll miss fewer games than that, but it's hard to imagine there won't be a bit of hangover from all the missed time.

Fortunately, this is probably the low-point for his value this season. If he makes a quick return, he can reclaim most of that value, but it's hard to go beyond that right now.

Gavin Lux (2B, Dodgers)

Unfortunately, there isn't much good news to write about Lux. The Dodgers were able to designate him for assignment because they have such a glut of talent and ability. Lux isn't blocked, but he is marginalized by Kike Hernadez's solid start. Chris Taylor is there as well, but he's been putrid so far.

It's reasonable to expect the Dodgers to call up Lux any day now, but in a league with tight benches or without an NA spot, he's droppable if you need a body. I'm going to keep holding in both leagues where I own him, but I have space in the one and an NA slot in the other.

Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/3B) and Carter Kieboom (SS/3B, Nationals)

Unless there is an injury, Cabrera's value is inversely connected to Kieboom's. Kieboom was supposed to begin the year as the Nationals' starting third baseman. However, he's only played three games so far while Cabrera has seven starts. On a per-game basis, Kieboom has been better than Cabrera, but if he's only going to play part-time, he's going to be hard to hold for long.

Meanwhile, Cabrera has become one of the most consistent accumulators in the league. He's not great, but he provides multi-position eligibility, a little pop, a steal or two, counting stats, and a batting average that isn't likely to hurt you. He's a placeholder for fantasy teams, but one that minimizes damage to a team that needs a body at second or third base.

The Nationals owe Kieboom and fans the opportunity to see what he can do, but even with the 22-year-old's supreme talent, it will be hard to wait much longer.

Khris Davis (OF, Athletics)

Davis has struggled to start the year. It's difficult to dismiss it as a small sample after last season's unhappy line of  61-23-73-0-.220. So far this season, Davis has struck out seven times in fifteen at-bats (41.2%). What is really worrisome is that the team has already given him two games off in the first six. Either Bob Melvin is giving Davis a breather, or he sees trouble as well. If Davis starts to lose playing time, that's probably the end. Davis did strike the ball well last season, so there is some reason for optimism, but the opening week is worrisome.

Luis Robert (OF, White Sox)

I wrote about Robert last week, but the short version is that we've probably undervalued him given his track record in the minors, his power potential, and his clear success against older players. After Tim Anderson's injury, the White Sox moved Robert into the leadoff spot. That should help his run total, but I'm not sure if the White Sox will give him the same opportunities to run if he has Moncada, Abreu, and Jimenez behind him.

Victor Caratini (C, Cubs)

If you've missed it like me, Caratini is seeing time at DH for the Cubs. Last year, Caratini assembled a 108 wRC+ at a position where the 15 best catchers averaged a 115. However, those 15 catchers average only 110 games (about 68% playing time), while Caratini has now played in six of the Cubs seven games this season. There are plenty of reasons why this might be Caratini's high point, but consider the following comparison:

That's not to suggest that Caratini is going to ascend to Realmuto's production, but he's a definite candidate to move up the rankings. The 25-year-old has a modest defensive skillset, so if the Cubs can get his bat in the lineup more frequently without needing him to catch as often, that's a real benefit to his value. Consider players like Mitch Garver and Alex Avila from a few years ago: catchers who see extra at-bats almost always offer increased value. Even if he assembles middling ratio stats, he should offer an advantage in counting categories.

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