RADIO
Nothing grinds a fantasy owner's gears quite like a bust. Well, maybe unpaid league dues, but busts are a close second. It doesn't feel good to stare at your lineup all-season and watch a high draft pick torpedo your team's chances at glory.
Spurned owners tend to avoid the players who've burned them, but a savvy drafter knows that last year's bust is this year's breakout. But before you go running to the bargain bin on draft day, remember that not everything that bust is a rebound waiting to happen, and what appears as good value might be a trap in disguise.
In this article, we go around the horn in the infield to examine a 2019 bust at each position and outline the case against drafting that player. ADP data is taken from NFBC and is accurate as of 3/9/20.
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Rhys Hoskins 1B, PHI (ADP 115)
2019 Stats: .224/.364/.454 triple slash, 29 HR, 85 RBI 2 SB
2019 presented new lows for Hoskins, as he posted career worsts in batting average, strikeout rate, and ISO. On the surface, it’s easy to make a bounce-back case for Hoskins. He’s just 26 years old with an elite power pedigree and plays in an excellent hitters park. Hoskins also bats cleanup behind three All-Star caliber hitters. However, when we dive into the underlying numbers, the rebound seems much less likely for the hulking first baseman.
There are three notable issues in Hoskins’s batted-ball profile that, by themselves, won’t cripple a batter’s ability to maintain a decent batted average. But when combined, these three deficiencies destroy any hope of approaching even a .250 mark. Hoskins had a poor barrel rate at just 9.7%, a weak average exit velocity (for a power hitter) at 89.7 MPH, and an extreme 24-degree average launch angle, the highest in the majors among qualified hitters. Hoskins was a weak fly ball machine last year, which almost always guarantees outs. It’s why he had a nauseating .221 xBA, which was bottom-ten among qualified hitters, a territory mostly occupied by glove-first catchers like Martin Maldonado and Yan Gomes.
Hoskins hit just .226 on flyballs with a .372 wOBA last year, while the league hit .254 with a .401 wOBA. Hoskins also had a meager 388-foot average flyball distance on his home runs, which was the fifth-lowest among players who hit over 25 longballs, behind two Astros and two Yankees that benefit from famously short outfield porches. The more I dig into the Statcast numbers, the more pessimistic I feel about Hoskins heading into 2020.
Hoskins is revamping his swing, and while that could prove to be a promising change, I need to see sustained regular-season production before buying back in with him. He’s going at pick 105 per FantasyPros consensus ADP, and that’s far too high for someone with poor peripherals, drastic mechanical changes, and an oversaturated skillset. For the price, I’d rather turn to Trey Mancini at pick 104, Carlos Santana at pick 141, Miguel Sano at 117, or wait a lot longer and scoop up Hunter Dozier, who is a tremendous value at pick 182.
What’s perhaps most frustrating about Hoskins’s poor 2019 is that it came during a league-wide power explosion. The all-time high for home runs was shattered by more than 600 dingers last season, and Hoskins, who’s only valuable 5x5 skill is power, couldn’t even reach 30 long balls while playing 160 games. Fifty-eight players hit 30 or more home runs, including the likes of Kole Calhoun, Mitch Garver, Renato Nunez, and Dan Vogelbach. And those players all did it in fewer games. If Hoskins can’t do it with a juiced ball, why should we be confident in him rebounding in 2020? Why take that risk when we can get similar or better production at a lower price?
Daniel Murphy 1B, COL (ADP 250)
2019 Stats: .279/.328/.452 triple slash, 13 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB
There was plenty of excitement when Murphy signed with the Rockies last offseason, as he had been one of the most reliable sources of batting average between 2016-2018. The move to Colorado was seen as a way for the aging superstar to prop up his numbers as he entered the twilight years of his career. Things didn’t quite go that way for Murphy, who battled injuries all year en route to a career-worst 86 wRC+ and a modest .279 batting average, his lowest since 2009. Murphy isn't going nearly as high as the other players in this article, but he was certainly one of the biggest busts at second base in 2019. Murphy’s draft stock has tanked as a result of that performance. However, he still has a stranglehold on Colorado’s first base job. With a superb track record behind him, owners could look at Murphy as a potential veteran bounce-back candidate, especially if he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, there were more problems here than just injuries.
Even when on the field, Murphy just didn’t have the same oomph on the ball he once had. His average exit velocity has been on a downward trend since his 2016 breakout, but it reached an all-time low at just 86.3 MPH last season, the exact same mark as players like Adam Frazier, Joe Panik, and Harold Castro. Murphy’s line drive rate also hit a three-year low at 24.2%, and these two factors combined gave him a .250 xBA, a 55-point drop from the year below and the first time since the introduction of Statcast that Murphy had an xBA below .293. That dip is especially disappointing since Colorado hitters routinely outperform their xBA at a greater rate than league average (see below).
| last_name | first_name | pa | bip | ba | est_ba | est_ba_minus_ba_diff | slg | est_slg | est_slg_minus_slg_diff | woba | est_woba | est_woba_minus_woba_diff |
| Arenado | Nolan | 662 | 503 | 0.315 | 0.272 | 0.043 | 0.583 | 0.484 | 0.099 | 0.392 | 0.344 | 0.048 |
| Story | Trevor | 656 | 417 | 0.294 | 0.264 | 0.03 | 0.554 | 0.463 | 0.091 | 0.38 | 0.339 | 0.041 |
| Blackmon | Charlie | 634 | 481 | 0.314 | 0.294 | 0.02 | 0.576 | 0.52 | 0.056 | 0.387 | 0.362 | 0.025 |
| McMahon | Ryan | 539 | 322 | 0.25 | 0.245 | 0.005 | 0.45 | 0.429 | 0.021 | 0.33 | 0.322 | 0.008 |
| Desmond | Ian | 482 | 327 | 0.255 | 0.271 | -0.016 | 0.479 | 0.474 | 0.005 | 0.328 | 0.335 | -0.007 |
| Murphy | Daniel | 478 | 368 | 0.279 | 0.25 | 0.029 | 0.452 | 0.371 | 0.081 | 0.328 | 0.29 | 0.038 |
| Tapia | Raimel | 447 | 326 | 0.275 | 0.259 | 0.016 | 0.415 | 0.376 | 0.039 | 0.307 | 0.287 | 0.02 |
| Dahl | David | 413 | 271 | 0.302 | 0.267 | 0.035 | 0.524 | 0.482 | 0.042 | 0.364 | 0.34 | 0.024 |
| Wolters | Tony | 411 | 299 | 0.262 | 0.244 | 0.018 | 0.329 | 0.316 | 0.013 | 0.29 | 0.281 | 0.009 |
| Alonso | Yonder | 335 | 224 | 0.199 | 0.232 | -0.033 | 0.346 | 0.38 | -0.034 | 0.277 | 0.306 | -0.029 |
| Hampson | Garrett | 327 | 215 | 0.247 | 0.227 | 0.02 | 0.385 | 0.329 | 0.056 | 0.292 | 0.265 | 0.027 |
| Iannetta | Chris | 164 | 91 | 0.222 | 0.231 | -0.009 | 0.417 | 0.415 | 0.002 | 0.303 | 0.312 | -0.009 |
| Reynolds | Mark | 162 | 81 | 0.17 | 0.166 | 0.004 | 0.311 | 0.295 | 0.016 | 0.268 | 0.266 | 0.002 |
| Daza | Yonathan | 105 | 77 | 0.206 | 0.207 | -0.001 | 0.237 | 0.262 | -0.025 | 0.221 | 0.23 | -0.009 |
| 0.256429 | 0.244929 | 0.0115 |
*Colorado players outperformed their xBA by 11.5 points last season, much higher than the league average of 2.1 points (min. 100 PA)
Murphy got the Coors field bump and then some last year, and it still couldn't salvage his rapidly deteriorating skills. Murphy’s draft price is so low that there isn’t much risk in drafting him, but there isn't much to like in this profile. He’s going to be 35 years old on April 1, and when push comes to shove, you probably aren’t going to waste an IL spot on Murphy when the inevitable injury comes. At best, we’re looking at a hitter to stream when healthy and the Rockies have a homestand. Those types of players belong on waivers, and I’d rather burn a late-round pick on a sleeper than this creaky old veteran.
Manny Machado SS/3B, SD (ADP 60)
2019 Stats: .256/.334/.462 triple slash, 32 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
The fantasy community had a split reaction when Machado landed with San Diego last offseason. The park is notoriously pitcher-friendly, and pessimists pointed to Machado’s .760 OPS and 104 wRC+ away from Camden Yards during his tenure with Baltimore as a reason to doubt the former All-Star. The case for Machado heading into his first year with the Padres hinged on his supreme batted ball metrics, five-category contributions, and dual eligibility with shortstop and third base. Unfortunately, Machado’s batted-ball quality took a dip, he stopped running, and his dual eligibility happens to be at the two beefiest positions in fantasy baseball. These factors culminated in Machado posting his worst offensive season since 2017. Right, just two years prior to Machado’s disappointing year in 2019, he was stinking it up for the Orioles in 2017. In two of the last three seasons, Machado has posted an OPS below .800, not something we’d expect from a $300 million supposed MVP candidate. Machado bounced back after 2017, but can the San Diego superstar do it again next season?
There are a few crucial differences between Machado’s poor 2017 and poor 2019 that should make owners approach him with caution in drafts. Machado’s strikeout rate was a career-worst 19.4% last year, which is still above average in this era of baseball, but it’s how the strikeout rate rose that should have owners wary. Machado’s swinging strike rate rose to 10.5% despite a four-year low in swing rate. Machado’s swing rate on fastballs was down, but his swing rate on breaking balls were all above his career average. Below is a heatmap comparison of Machado’s swing rate against off-speed pitches career prior to 2019 (left) and 2019 (right).
*2012-2018
*2019
He swung more in every quadrant, and as a result, Machado hit .189 with a .319 SLG against off-speed pitches last season. Machado’s always been a fastball assassin, and last year was no different, but he spent too much time chasing breakers and watching juicy fastballs go by in 2019.
Of course, Machado could recover from something like this, but this development has coincided with, or perhaps caused, notable drop-offs in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xwOBA for Machado last year. His poor 2019 was more than bad luck, and it will take some tweaking for Machado to rebound. In today’s fantasy baseball climate, the upside doesn’t seem worth the risk. It would be tough to envision Machado reaching even ten steals next year, and 30-35 home run power at third base just ain’t what it used to be. Seven shortstops and 13 third baseman hit 30 or more home runs last year, and only two of them had a worse batting average (Paul DeJong and Miguel Sano). It’s not that Machado can’t bounce back, but he has more problems than simply a low BABIP. It’s hard to take him at his current ADP when Eugenio Suarez can be had at 76. You could also wait even longer to scoop up bankable power with Max Muncy (71), Josh Donaldson (94), or Mike Moustakas (96). Those players don’t have Machado’s ceiling, but they present much better value at their current ADP.
Adalberto Mondesi SS, KC (ADP 38)
2019 Stats: .263/.291/.424 triple slash, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 43 SB
Mondesi was arguably the most controversial player heading into 2019, and while injuries plagued his second half, Mondesi did deliver with 43 steals in the 102 games he did play. His steals rate was a bit down last year (10.3 per PA in 2019 compared to 9.1 in 2018), but is it really fair to call him a bust? It depends on how you look at it because the real issues lie in Mondesi’s bat, not his legs.
Most owners should’ve expected Mondesi’s power to regress in 2019, but he took a pretty far step back with the stick. His ISO fell from .222 to a pedestrian .161, his hard-hit rate fell over 3%, and Mondesi posted a pitiful .282 wOBA. It would be convenient to blame this regression on Mondesi’s shoulder injury, but his hard-hit rate was actually higher after he returned from the injury. However, he only played in 20 games before hitting the IL for good. Mondesi’s famous poor plate discipline was on display last season, as he struck out 29.8% of the time and drew just 19 walks in 443 PA, making him only one of nine players with over 400 PA and fewer than 20 walks last year. These flaws aren’t news to those interested in Mondesi, but they aren’t weighted heavily enough when considering his draft-day value.
Those who draft Mondesi do so with the intention of getting a steals source who can contribute in other categories, but Mondesi is walking a fine line with this approach. His 2018 power surge was built on an increase in launch angle and hard-hit rate, two metrics that went down in 2019 while the rest of the league saw their power numbers skyrocket. The rest of Mondesi’s profile is also dependent on an incredibly volatile metric, BABIP. Since 2018 Mondesi has a .268 AVG thanks to a .348 BABIP, and while we can expect a speedy player like Mondesi to maintain an above-average BABIP, a drop within normal variance could tank his batting average. And since he rarely takes a walk, a drop in BABIP would also severely hinder his ability to reach base, and you need to reach first before you can steal second. It would be difficult to pile up steals with an OBP under .290.
Of course, the previous paragraph outlines a worst-case scenario; any player can experience a drop in BABIP, but when a hitter has such an aggressive and extreme profile like Mondesi, they are more susceptible to the whim of the baseball gods. A good comparison might be Carlos Gomez. At his best, Gomez could be great, but as we saw, the swing-heavy approach made consistent success nigh impossible. Even worse, Mondesi’s plate discipline metrics look more like late-career Gomez than peak Gomez. He swings just as much and takes fewer walks than Gomez in his last few years.
One final issue I raise with Mondesi is a question of durability. He is coming off shoulder surgery and has never played more than 125 games in a season at any level, and that was back in 2013 at Single-A. All of these factors make me wonder why Mondesi is going ahead of Jonathan Villar. Mondesi has an average ADP of 38, while Villar is at 42. A negligible difference sure, but for some reason, Mondesi has an ADP of 96 in ESPN drafts, well below his ADP on other sites. If we eliminate ESPN for both players, Mondesi is going 43rd while Villar is still going at 52nd. Isn’t Villar what we want Mondesi to be? He doesn’t steal bases at Mondesi’s rate, but he’s topped 35 steals in three different seasons, hitting .260 or higher with double-digit home runs and a walk rate of at least 8% during those seasons. He also played over 140 games in three of the last four seasons. Villar’s abysmal 2017 seems to have left a bad taste in owners' mouths because he seems like a much more bankable multi-category contributor at the same position for a slightly cheaper price.
