RADIO
Rick Lucks examines the fantasy baseball viability of SP Zach Plesac (Indians) and OF Mallex Smith (Mariners) for fantasy baseball owners in redraft leagues in 2019. Are they worthwhile fantasy assets?
The calendar has officially flipped to June, which means that your league's standings page now contains useful information. No, it's not time to give up on your sixth-place team. Instead, it's time to pinpoint your unique areas of need and then make trade proposals and waiver wire acquisitions accordingly.
For example, maybe the league-wide dearth of quality pitching has you falling short of your rivals in IP, Wins, or strikeouts. If so, you should be looking for inning eaters such as Zach Plesac, currently available in roughly three quarters of leagues. If your roster's speed hasn't panned out, a burner like Mallex Smith may make more sense for you.
Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their expectations. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're seen as a Tier 3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're perceived as a Tier 1 pitcher. All ownership rates are from Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise noted. Let's take a closer look at Plesac and Smith, shall we?
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Zach Plesac (SP, CLE)
24% Owned
Plesac's big league debut has gone swimmingly, with a 1.46 ERA through two starts (@BOS, @CWS) and 12 1/3 IP. Fantasy owners are probably shying away for two reasons. First, Plesac was never really regarded as a prospect, getting taken in the 12th round in 2016 and not denting top prospect lists at any point in his minor league career. Second, his 4.18 xFIP suggests unfavorable regression moving forward.
While Plesac may not have the hype associated with other MiLB standouts, he's done nothing but put up results since cracking Double-A in 2018. He logged 22 IP in his first exposure to the High Minors, posting a 2.45 ERA and 3.52 xFIP with an above average K% (24.1) and low BB% (4.6).
Plesac continued his success at Double-A this season, compiling a 0.96 ERA and 2.87 xFIP in 37 1/3 IP with virtually identical K% (24.8) and BB% (4.4) rates. The performance earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he posted a 2.25 ERA and 3.84 xFIP with excellent K% (29) and BB% (1.3) rates in 20 IP before his big league debut. Shane Bieber posted similar MiLB strikeout and walk rates, and he's currently making his fantasy owners very happy.
Plesac hasn't generated that many Ks at the big league level (20.5 K%), but his control has translated perfectly (4.6% BB%). His 94-mph 4-seamer has been dynamic, posting a 10.1 SwStr% despite a very high 62.4 Zone%. His slider has also generated a lot of whiffs (21.1 SwStr%), though oddly it's doing most of its damage in the zone (63.2 Zone%) as opposed to making batters chase (28.6% chase rate).
That leaves an opening in Plesac's arsenal for a more traditional wipeout pitch, though neither the change (52.6 Zone%, 5.3 SwStr%, 27.8% chase) or curve (31.3 Zone%, 0 SwStr%, 27.3% chase) he's currently featuring fit the bill. If he can refine a third pitch to go with his fastball-slider combo, Plesac could be an SP3 or better in fantasy for years to come.
Even if Plesac keeps striking guys out at his current rate, there is something to be said for the value of a dedicated strike thrower in today's landscape. Nearly every team has most arms on strict pitch counts now, making it tough to get the five innings needed for a W, to say nothing of the six required for a quality start. Plesac can get there consistently because he wastes so few pitches, making him an attractive volume play.
"But what about his xFIP?" you're probably wondering. If you take a closer look at the MiLB numbers above, you'll note that Plesac's ERA beat his xFIP by a substantial margin in every single campaign. His 47.5% fly ball rate in 2018 suggested that he should have allowed a ton of homers, but his 3.6% HR/FB muted the damage. He didn't allow a Double-A HR at all this season despite a 38.3 FB%, and his 8.7% HR/FB at Triple-A (44.2 FB%) is excellent considering the havoc the new ball is causing at the level.
If a fly ball pitcher limits the long ball, they can ride the lower BABIPs associated with fly balls to contact suppression that allows them to beat their xFIP consistently. Plesac had a .300 BABIP at Double-A in 2018, but .237 at the level this season and .260 at Triple-A. He probably won't maintain the .219 BABIP he's currently sporting in the major leagues, but regressing him all the way to .300 would likely be a mistake.
You probably don't want to start Plesac against every opponent unless and until his K% ticks upward, and his next scheduled start (@NYY) might be a good one to skip. However, he's in a division with three dreadful offenses (DET, CWS, KC) and plays for a club that seemed assured of a postseason spot in February. In short, he's a streamer who will see consistent use on your roster.
Verdict: Champ (based on discrepancy between performance and ownership rate)
Mallex Smith (OF, SEA)
46% Owned
Smith was a sought-after commodity coming off of a .296/.367/.406 2018 with 40 steals, but a dreadful .165/.255/.247 line in April forced the lowly Mariners to banish him to the minors for a couple of weeks to get his head straight. He torched Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .333/.375/.467 line over 48 PAs, and has hit .250 since returning to the big club. His season line (.197/.274/.306) is still bad, but at least it's trending in the right direction.
A deeper dive into Smith's profile reveals that he probably isn't as good as he looked last year but much better than he's been in 2019. One of the biggest problems in 2019 has been a .267 BABIP that's more than 60 points shy of his .338 career mark. The difference is apparent on all of his batted balls. For instance, his grounders have a 2019 BABIP of .214 against a career mark of .264. Smith can flat out fly (29.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed) and his 83.8 mph exit velocity is a career-best, yet his Infield Hit Percentage is just 1.8% (career 11.3%). Smells fluky, no?
Similarly, Smith's line drive rate is down to 16.8%, five percentage points below his career mark. LD% is a notoriously random stat, so correction should be expected moving forward. Likewise, Smith's .611 BABIP on line drives despite a career-high rate of Brls/BBE (still just 3.7%) seems destined to drift toward his career BABIP on line drives (.706).
Smith's 28.6 K% (21.2% career) has also been a problem, and while it's backed by a career-worst 13.3 SwStr%, the increase over his 12.2% career rate isn't enough to support such a massive spike. This problem is already starting to correct itself, as his 30 K% in April declined to 25% in May. All of these numbers are too high to expect Smith to sniff .300, but he should be able to manage .260-.270 over the rest of the season.
Smith has 15 steals (one CS) despite his struggles at the plate, so at worst he's a Billy Hamilton clone to provides steals at the expense of everything else. He should be able to at least get his average into neutral territory though, and Seattle has used him in the leadoff spot in each game he's played since May 28. If you have a need for speed, check to see if Smith is available on your waiver wire.
Verdict: Champ (based on phenomenal speed that demands fantasy attention in nearly all formats)
