NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Novig (Week 10)

November 13, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 10 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

Another week in the NFL brings us another opportunity to profit on prop bets! I tend to go where the best matchups are, so this week I am a little heavier on running back props because that's where I think some of the best angles are on this slate!

If you're new here, I'd like to introduce you to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL player props for Week 10 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost built into the odds offered on each side of a bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

NFL Passing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Trevor Lawrence OVER 247.5 passing yards (51%)

The game script is the only real concern here, as the Jags are 10-point favorites in this one. However, this is such a great spot for Lawrence and a relatively low number for a QB of his caliber.

Lawrence has eclipsed this mark only twice this season, but the Jags simply haven't needed him to air it out as they've been leaning heavily on their running game and Bhayshul Tuten. But I think this is Lawrence's week to go off, as he'll face a Titans secondary that has been shredded lately.

Tennessee has allowed passers to throw for 260 or more yards in four consecutive weeks, including a whopping 462 through the air allowed to Joe Burrow two weeks ago.

T-Law threw for 255 yards the last time he faced Tennessee at the end of last season. He did that on only 30 attempts, too.

The Titans just need to slow down the running game just enough to force the Jags to air it out. I think they will, and that Lawrence can get there with another efficient day.

C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (51%)

The Browns haven't allowed a passer to throw for two touchdowns in five straight weeks. But Stroud has tossed 10 TD passes over his last three games, so something has to give here!

The Texans are throwing the ball 59% of the time this season, and that number shrinks to only 54.7% in the red zone. I think they'll move the ball at will here against a Browns defense that continues to be a subpar unit this year. Houston is implied for 22.5 points in this game and is coming off their best offensive production of the season last week.

If they score three TDs, I think C.J. tosses two of them; it's that simple. We don't get QBs on good teams with a 2-TD passing prop this close to even money that often.

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Jaylen Warren OVER 64.5 rushing yards (52%)

How in the world do we keep getting such soft props for Warren? In the great words of Will Ferrell in the 2001 classic Zoolander, "I feel like I am taking crazy pills!"

Every Jaylen Warren rush attempt in Week 3 vs. the Bengals:

Warren and the offensive line dominated on the ground. #Steelers https://t.co/2eSl4k9S2v

— Tommy Jaggi (@TommyJaggi) September 28, 2026

Warren has 90 or more rushing yards in five of his last six games. Even with Rico Dowdle returning the last two weeks, Warren has still gone over 100 yards. The Steelers' run game IS their offense, and I expect Warren to be featured heavily in this one.

He had 127 yards on the ground last time he faced the Bengals, and he had a long 80+ yard touchdown run called back, too. He's awesome, and the Bengals defense is pretty darn bad.

Chuba Hubbard OVER 79.5 rushing yards (50%)

Hubbard is a core DFS play on the Sunday main slate, and I'm slamming his rushing props in this matchup against the Saints, too.

He's been a workhorse for this Carolina offense, handling 15+ carries in five of their last six games. In those games, he's cleared this bar four times and just narrowly missed this bar last week with 79 yards.

The Saints' run defense ranks near the bottom of the league, and I expect the Panthers to attempt to exploit that this week with a steady dose of Hubbard.

Zach Charbonnet OVER 62.5 rushing yards (51%)

You know that I love to attack the Vegas run defense, so I am going to be smashing the button on Charbonnet in DFS and props this week.

In only his second game back from injury, Charbs handled 16 rushing attempts last week and turned them into 77 yards rushing. He should burst and broke plenty of tackles. He looked fantastic and should continue to lead this backfield, along with Jadarian Price, this season.

Zach Charbonnet threw him out of the way 😳

AZvsSEA on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/hrkPOBrPtu

— NFL (@NFL) November 8, 2026

This is a low bar to clear for Charbonnet if he sees a similar workload this week. The Raiders are dead last in EPA per attempt, yards before contact per attempt, and explosive run rate. With Drew Lock having to make another start for Seattle, I expect we will see another run-heavy approach from the Seahawks.

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NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Ja'Marr Chase OVER 7.5 receptions (50%)

Chase has been simply unstoppable lately, piling up 22 catches on 28 targets in Cincy's last two games.

He had 9 catches for 98 yards (on 12 targets) the first time these teams met, and a 49.5-point game total tells us that Vegas expects a lot of scoring in this one again.

The Steelers are a pass-funnel defense, which plays right into the Bengals' strength. I expect Chase to see double-digit targets in this one and secure at least eight of those for receptions.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown (30%)

This one doesn't need too much of a case, does it? The Colts traded away both Keenan Allen and Josh Downs this week, leaving Warren in line for a ton of targets. He was already the top target-earner in the red zone with a 23.8% red zone target rate, and the Dolphins have allowed the 6th-most touchdowns to the tight end position.

There might not be too many TDs scored in this one, but I like Indy to punch at least one of their drives in, and I think Warren is a good bet to be the guy who scores. Don't forget he also has a chance at a rushing touchdown on a sneak!

Good luck if you're tailing these props this week. Thanks for reading. Let's crush!

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