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Austin Swaim's UFC DFS lineups picks for UFC Vegas 123 - Moicano vs. Nolan. Top MMA fighter picks this week include Joe Kropschot, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, Jacobe Smith, Tom Nolan, and Mickey Gall.
Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy offers MMA contests featuring the full UFC fight card. The DFS slate for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan locks Saturday at 5 p.m. EST and is available on Paramount+.
Saturday's main event could mark a changing of the guard at lightweight. 26-year-old Tom "Big Train" Nolan from Australia wants a spot toward the top 10, but he'll have to pass the always-difficult test that is brash Brazilian grappler Renato "Money" Moicano.
Here is a full breakdown of my favorite picks in each pricing tier.
UFC Vegas 123 DraftKings DFS Studs to Target
Joe Kropschot ($9,300)
Less than three months from an impressive win on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS), Joe Kropschot's UFC debut comes in a winnable matchup.
His opponent, Nick Klein, is 0-2 in the UFC, and the Wisconsin-based grappler has been destroyed at distance, per a 39% striking defense. His entire style is predicated on getting the fight to the ground, but Kropschot's DWCS bid was all about wrestling defense.
He stuffed just 2 of 4 attempts, but getting a former D1 wrestler at Nebraska, Jon Kunneman, to stop trying was the real win. Kropschot also broke Kunneman's arm in a late submission attempt, trying to secure the finish.
The former LFA middleweight champion is a reliable, 31-year-old pro despite the lack of octagon experience. He's -160 to win by finish at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani ($9,000)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is quickly rising up the rankings at welterweight. He's looking to improve to 3-0 with a win over Farman Hasanov.
"Mufasa" had 6 early stoppages in his first 9 pro fights, but he's run into a couple of tough, durable veterans to begin his UFC tenure. Phil Rowe and Seokhyeon Ko have just 3 stoppage losses in a combined 35 pro fights, so he had to settle for decisions.
Farman Hasanov, with just five pro appearances to his name, might be more prone to a mistake. Hasanov landed a whopping 17 takedowns in his debut, so a matchup with JPL's 100% takedown defense is elite matchmaking, especially given his dangerous front chokes:
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani has strong takedown defense and is a submission threat.
He currently rocks a 100% Takedown Defense Rate through 2 UFC fights and 1 DWCS fight. https://t.co/X54Fcm5fS4
— Clint MacLean (@DieHardMMAPod) October 27, 2026
Whether it be that or via his superior kickboxing, this is a golden opportunity for Lebosnoyani to finally deliver a true highlight.
Jacobe Smith ($8,800)
One of the biggest swings in DFS contests this weekend will be the co-main event. We'll find out if "Cobe" is the real deal.
Jacobe Smith is unbeaten in five UFC-affiliated appearances with video-game-like numbers. He's got a card-best +4.14 striking success rate (SSR) while averaging a gaudy 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's dispatched everyone inside 10 minutes.
But these opponents have a combined UFC record of 11-17 with 2 no-contests. Randy Brown, a formerly ranked 170-pounder, is a 14-8 veteran who's seen it all, but he's also been stopped in the first round three times since the COVID break.
Smith's wrestling foundation is a tough fade in DFS if he can get this fight to the ground and win it in any fashion. Brown's takedown defense (74%) is great on paper, but he last faced someone averaging at least 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes in 2017. This is a new challenge.
UFC Vegas 123 DraftKings DFS Mid-Tier Picks
Rodrigo Sezinando ($8,500)
Rodrigo Sezinando and Theordor Berggren opened their UFC careers the same way: a knockout loss to Daniil Donchenko. Barring a wacky tie, one will get their first career win here.
It's probably a notable one in fantasy, too. These two are currently -275 to not go the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Styles make fights, and while you could argue Berggren fought Donchenko "better", lasting into Round 2, it's because the patient striker is a better fit to last against a powerful marauder with excellent takedown defense. Sezinando sprints from the opening bell and shoots takedowns.
That's a huge problem for Berggren, who lost consecutive regional fights on the mat to Justin Burlinson and Leonardo Damiani. Has he shored up those issues? We really don't know. He's fought three straight guys who never even mixed in wrestling.
Sezinando has roots with Brazil's Nova Uniao gym and Jose Aldo, and he's been working with Daniel Cormier since his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter. With the right approach, he could rinse out the Swede on the mat.
Ode Osbourne ($8,300)
I'm trusting my model here. It has Osbourne at 57.3% likely to win this fight, yet heavy public action has made Cody Durden the favorite during the week. 63% of bets at DraftKings are on Durden in a pick 'em.
I kind of get it. When Osbourne has lost, it has been to better grapplers than Durden -- like Asu Almabayev, Alibi Idiris, and Steve Erceg -- who have landed takedowns. Those three combined for 10 landed in three recent setbacks.
But I just can't buy Durden on that level. He's lost seven of his last nine fights. At 35, he's had a hard time maintaining that pace deep into fights recently.
This is your official mythbuster for engagement farmer slop that Osbourne "can't defend takedowns". His 66% takedown defense is above the flyweight average (57%), and it's 64.6% over his last 37 attempts faced. I think he might be able to stuff the shots and land another one of these:
Ode Osbourne knocks out Luis Gurule https://t.co/M3dJxpTs9T
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) April 6, 2025
Tom Nolan ($8,200)
It's a terrifying bit of deja vu from last week for me here. My model likes the younger, upstart contender against an extremely popular veteran in the main event. Alexander Volkanovski turned the clock all the way back. Will Renato Moicano?
Well, Moicano hasn't had anywhere near the sustained greatness of Volkanovski, given that he's lost two of his last three fights. He's the only one of Beneil Dariush's last five opponents that didn't knock him out in Round 1, and Moicano lost outright due to endurance problems.
At 37, has he solved them? Well, we didn't get a great look in March when he "club-and-subbed" teammate Chris Duncan, who he's trained with extensively, in the second round.
Tom Nolan has been dropped twice in the UFC with porous striking (48%) and takedown (58%) defense, but that's the cost of being a raw project. He entered the UFC at just 22. Clearly, with a dominant win over Fares Ziam (8-4 UFC), he's made massive strides.
That's been with a new gym at City Kickboxing, too.
I'm a believer in my model's process, which heavily favors Nolan's 11-year age gap, superior punching power, and lower career attrition. Moicano slowed down against Dariush, so I think "Big Train" is in business the longer he can avoid Money's patented chokes.
UFC Vegas 123 DraftKings Underdog Plays
Julian Erosa ($7,600)
I'm permanently banning fighters in announced retirement fights if this one doesn't work out.
Julian Erosa is 37, and his best days are undoubtedly behind him. He's got seven UFC losses by knockout. You might think I'm insane, but this betting line has inched toward him this week. It's because JeongYeong Lee isn't very good.
Notably, Lee hasn't dropped any of his three UFC opponents, so they are giving Erosa's fleeting chin every opportunity to hang on. I also think it's an overstated issue, too, given the Las Vegas resident just went the full distance with a ranked contender, Melky Costa, two fights ago.
Lee's one win has been cut from the roster, and he's managed a pitiful 3.38 significant strikes per minute for someone with next-to-no wrestling offense. He's stuffed takedowns through the Road to UFC program in Asia, but that's about it.
Erosa is a dangerous, diverse striker who lands 6.18 significant strikes per minute -- nearly double that of "Korean Tiger". Plus, he's cashed four UFC wins by submission to Lee's zero.
My model has him a slight favorite (51.2%) in the bargain bin. Niko Price retired with a win three weeks ago. How about another?
Mickey Gall ($7,100)
The people's main event is Zach Reese and Mickey Gall's duel at middleweight. These meme artists are a combined 10-11 in UFC with some of the goofiest losses in promotional history, but that might make it even as they square off.
Gall hasn't won a fight since 2021, so I get some apprehension about taking him, but a shift to middleweight is intriguing. He's always been tall, at 6'2", for 170 pounds and sapped his energy to make the weight cut. Do we see a stronger, more voluminous version?
He'll have to prove he can take punches at middleweight, but at least that's a question mark. Reese definitely can't. He's been KO'd inside five minutes in three of his last five completed bouts. Look how quickly this sat him down:
RYAN GANDRA ONLY NEEDS ONE SHOT 🤩
He's taking home the R1 TKO back to Brazil!
[ #UFC329 | LIVE ON @ParamountPlus ] https://t.co/YkopURSHZZ
— UFC on Paramount+ (@UFConParamount) July 11, 2026
Reese's four UFC wins are against foes with a combined 9-19 record with the promotion, and he needed a comeback in two of them. This fight should be closer to a coin flip, meaning Gall -- with any victory -- is major value as salary relief on this chalky card.
Tainara Lisboa ($6,600)
Look, I get it. Tainara Lisboa isn't even as good as her 2-2 record suggests, but what are we doing here?
Lisboa's -0.87 SSR is below average, and her striking (45%) and takedown (53%) defense are poor, but none of those metrics are outliers that justify making a total unknown and newcomer, Lucia Szabova, the highest-salaried fighter.
It gets worse when you consider Lisboa's experience extends beyond the UFC, going the full distance in two kickboxing matches with Valentina Shevchenko prior to 2012.
Perhaps a series of injuries has left Lisboa completely and totally dusted, but her average fight time in the UFC is still 13:27. She hangs around.
A quick review of Szabova's last effort against a UFC alum, Lucie Pudilova, was somewhat unimpressive. She was in bottom position early and often before the Czech bantamweight veteran faded. Pudilova lost seven of her last eight UFC bouts, so losing any minutes to her is a red flag.
I'm punting this fight and just praying it goes the distance. If Lisboa's Muay Thai background shows up so that she can just lose competitively at distance, her salary relief will be worth more than any Szabova win.
