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Joey looks at three sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 22 (2026) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.
Welcome, RotoBallers, to another edition of our Sneaky Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Column for Week 22 of the fantasy baseball season. Each week of the fantasy baseball season, we look at pitchers who are in a nice rhythm and determine whether these pitchers can sustain their recent strong production.
This week's edition will look at three pitchers who are trending up. This list will include a pitcher who is putting up solid numbers on his new team, a pitcher who has seen his strikeout rate increase over the last few weeks, and a pitcher in the midst of a nice stretch on the mound. All three of these pitchers are rostered in under 45% of Yahoo! leagues.
Let's take a look at these three pitchers for Week 22 of the fantasy baseball season.
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Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves
44% Rostered (Yahoo)
Starting pitcher Tyler Mahle wasn't on many fantasy managers' radars in the first few months of the season. Mahle was really struggling to be a consistent fantasy option with the San Francisco Giants to begin the year. The 31-year-old right-hander posted a 5.13 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate in his first 18 starts in 2026.
Then, the Giants traded him to the Atlanta Braves at the deadline. This change of scenery has now helped Mahle become that reliable fantasy pitcher. He has a 1.52 ERA and a 24.7% strikeout rate in his first four starts with the Braves. Some of his best outings during this stretch included throwing six shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Yankees and six innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts against the Mets.
In his most recent start against the Milwaukee Brewers, Mahle continued to throw the ball well. He threw five innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts while picking up his second win in a Braves uniform. Although the veteran wasn't as sharp in this contest, he battled through five solid innings. He induced nine whiffs in the game, and his fastball velocity was up 1.3 mph.
There has been a noticeable difference in Mahle's pitch mix since being traded to the Braves. He was throwing his slider around 7.5% to 17% of the time with the Giants from April to June. The Braves have basically eliminated that pitch altogether, as he has thrown only two sliders all month. That has led him to throw more splitters in August.
Mahle's splitter usage is way up this month. He's throwing his splitter 36.1% of the time, which is up 12.6% from his splitter usage in July (23.5%). The results on that splitter have been encouraging, too. The Braves right-hander has a .211 batting average against, a 25.7% whiff rate, and a 22.4% putaway rate on that pitch in August.
It's hard not to pick up Mahle in most 12+ team leagues right now. The results have been there, his offspeed stuff has looked good recently, and he's pitching in front of a much better defense in Atlanta. With an upcoming home start against the Colorado Rockies this weekend, it's a good idea to pick up the veteran before that outing.
Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals
11% Rostered (Yahoo)
Things have been very up-and-down for St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore this season. The 26-year-old left-hander has really been an inconsistent fantasy pitcher for most of the season. He'll usually put together one good start and then string together a couple of poor outings. That's how his year has gone.
However, Liberatore has thrown the ball much better in the month of August. This month, the Cardinals southpaw has a 4.03 ERA, a 2.68 FIP, and a 29.4% strikeout rate across four starts. His strikeout numbers are trending up, his ERA is slowly improving, and he has posted solid numbers on the mound in three of his last four outings.
Liberatore threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Blue Jays on August 2, allowed two runs across 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts against the Cubs on August 14, and threw six innings of three-run ball with nine strikeouts against the Reds in his most recent start last week. Outside of a five-run clunker against the Rockies earlier this month, he has really been a steady force.
The problem with Liberatore, though, is that his recent production may not continue. For starters, his underlying metrics are poor across the board. His expected ERA (4.81), expected batting average against (.264), average exit velocity (90.3 mph), barrel rate (9%), hard-hit rate (41.7%), and pitching run value (-14) all rank in the bottom half of the league.
On top of that, there hasn't been a noticeable difference in his pitch mix during this stretch. There's nothing that Liberatore is doing differently to suggest that he will miraculously be this consistent, solid strikeout pitcher in the final few weeks. He's still leaning on his four-seam fastball and slider the most, while mixing in his curveball, changeup, sinker, and cutter.
At this point, Liberatore is only worth picking up as a streamer in the right matchups. He's not the long-term answer that most fantasy managers are looking for in Week 22 of the fantasy baseball season.
Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals
8% Rostered (Yahoo)
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez has shown some encouraging things on the mound in his second Major League season. Alvarez has a 3.60 ERA across 80 innings pitched this year. The 27-year-old left-hander has really thrived as both a starter and a reliever for this Nationals team in 2026. He has a 3.71 ERA with one save in eight appearances out of the bullpen, and a 3.54 ERA across 11 starts.
After flip-flopping between the rotation and bullpen in the first few months, Alvarez has now settled into a starter role in Washington. He has made four starts in August and has looked good in each of those four outings. The southpaw has given up six earned runs across 22 1/3 innings pitched this month. He has a 2.43 ERA during this stretch and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of these starts.
Although his strikeout rate (18.4%) hasn't been great in August, it's hard to ignore how well he has thrown the ball lately. He threw 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball against the Phillies on August 5, 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Reds on August 8, 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Mets on August 14, and five innings of one-run ball against the Rangers in his most recent start last week.
The key for Alvarez during this stretch has been his increased curveball usage. He's throwing his curveball more this month than he did in June and July, and that has helped his overall numbers. Opposing batters are hitting .111 with a .148 slugging percentage, a .134 wOBA, and a 42% whiff rate. This pitch has a 27.8% putaway rate and has accounted for 10 of his 16 strikeouts this month.
Andrew Alvarez, Filthy Breaking Balls. 😷 pic.twitter.com/8PH0r6ckD5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 15, 2026
If Alvarez can continue to get ahead in counts, he has the potential to remain a reliable starting pitcher option. He can lean on his solid fastball and then get batters to chase outside the zone on his devastating curveball. With a 53rd percentile fastball run value, 57th percentile breaking run value, and a 66th percentile offspeed run value, the Nationals left-hander could be worth a look in some deeper leagues.
Alvarez has two great matchups on deck for this week, with a home matchup against the Rockies on Tuesday and another home matchup against the Marlins. It could be time to pick up this pitcher with two solid starts upcoming.
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