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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/18/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! As we head toward the final stretch of the season, more and more teams are throwing subpar pitchers on the mound. This gives us a multitude of spots to jump on for home run bets.
Don’t forget that it’s ok to hedge a home run bet with a bet on total bases or hits/runs/RBI. That gives you a little bit of wiggle room if your guy crushes one but doesn’t quite get all of it. A lot of plays in good spots tonight aren’t in the best hitting environments, and those hedges can come in very handy in situations like that.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/18/2026)
Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+257, Novig)
The frontrunner for the AL MVP has slowed down since his white-hot start to the season, but he’s still one of the best bats in the league and a little slump isn’t going to scare me off of a bet where the numbers are very much in his favor. Angels pitcher George Klassen is among the worst pitchers on the slate when it comes to facing left-handed bats.
He’s allowed a .462 SLG and has struck out just 17.4% of the lefties he’s faced so far this year. Although he’s only allowed two homers to lefties in 14.2 innings of work, he’s walked more batters (15) than he’s struck out (14), and that kind of lack of control will open him up to big innings.
Meanwhile, Alvarez has pummeled right-handed pitching all season. He leads the team with a .669 SLG, a .325 ISO, and 27 home runs. He’s walked more than he’s struck out against righties, meaning he’s getting the bat on the ball and not swinging at bad pitches.
He just keeps MASHING 🚀
Home run No. 36 for Yordan Alvarez! pic.twitter.com/vwYBo2LkPB
— MLB (@MLB) August 15, 2026
When Alvarez puts the bat on the ball, he crushes it with a ridiculous 53% Hard% against right-handers. Along with a home run bet, I’ll be adding in a bet of over 0.5 walks and an over 0.5 RBI bet.
Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300, Hard Rock)
Like Alvarez, Byron Buxton is currently mired in a slump that hasn’t seen him hit a home run in 17 games, but a matchup against Tyler Mahle might be what gets him back on track. In nine career at-bats against the new Atlanta pitcher, Buxton has four hits, including two extra-base hits.
Both Buxton and Mahle are reverse-split players, with Buxton dominating right-handed pitching and Mahle struggling against right-handed bats. Buxton has hit 21 of his 25 home runs against righties, backing that up with a team-leading .573 SLG and .315 ISO. 20% of the fly balls Buxton has hit against righties have left the yard.
That works well against Mahle, who has allowed nearly as many fly balls as ground balls this season. Mahle has allowed a .461 SLG and a 41% Hard% against right-handed bats, putting this matchup right in Buxton’s wheelhouse.
