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Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 20 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Welcome to the home stretch! The fantasy playoffs are going to be starting shortly and you need those diamonds in the rough to help fill the gaps on your roster. You've got your mainstays, and that's all well and good, but a couple complimentary pieces can be the key to success.
So let's find you some of those diamonds in the rough in this article, Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs for Week 20 of the fantasy baseball season. We'll do our best to break down hitters using advanced stats that help indicate to us whether a hitter is getting lucky or not. You don't want to be on the wrong side of that complimentary piece when you need him to come through the most. So let's get you on the right side.
This week, we'll evaluate four hitters -- Coby Mayo, Taylor Trammell, Bryson Stott, and Osleivis Basabe. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, August 9th.
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Coby Mayo, 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
2026 Stats: .711 OPS, 98 OPS+, 15 HR, 42 RBI, 39 R, 2 SB, 2% Rostered (Yahoo!)
It feels like it's been a long time coming for Mayo. The 24-year-old has had sporadic success at the big league level, but since the All-Star break he looks like a player that's figured it out. He's hitting for a .947 OPS in the second half, second on the Orioles behind only Tyler O'Neill. His full season stats are very close to what he did last year, but this hot streak is showing potential.
Since the trade deadline, the Orioles have been putting him at first base, third base, and DH. That's giving him quite a it of versatility and makes him easier to plug into your lineup with this current hot streak. But Mayo is still young. So are we looking at a breakout? Or a fake out? Let's dig in.
Coby Mayo since July 1st:
.259 BA
.306 OBP
.603 SLG (3rd in AL)🔥150 wRC+ (12th in AL)
.345 ISO (2nd in AL)
222 ISO+ (2nd in AL)
52.8% HardHit (9th in AL)5 HR | 11 RBI | 9 XBH #Birdland https://t.co/UIClWaE1yM pic.twitter.com/P2FKf6elRC
— Tyler Barberis (@tylerbarberis_) August 9, 2026
As we look as his plate approach, it looks like he's taking bigger chances this year. His strikeout rate is up from 28.6% to 33.2% while his walk rate is down from 9.2% to 7.0%. Those are obviously trending the wrong direction.
They're actually even more drastic in the second half, though, with his strikeout rate up to 36.5% and his walk rate down to 3.8%. There's obviously been a big tradeoff, with his .947 OPS since the break, but these numbers are certainly a bit concerning in terms of long term stability.
Moving on to his batted ball profile, we do see some slight improvements here. His ground-ball rate is down from 35.2% to 33.7%. His fly-ball rate is also down, going from 50.8% to 48.6%. The good news is these decreases can only mean his line drive rate is going up, which now sits at 17.7% from last year's 14.0%.
Another positive we're seeing is his HR/FB rate. That's up to 17.6% after last year's 12.1%. You honestly can't ask for a whole ton more from a batted ball profile that features a low ground-ball rate and a really solid HR/FB rate.
As we move onto BABIP, he's checking in with a .269 mark on the season. Last year he was at .274 in his 85 game stint in the majors. He was also at .273 in Triple-A Norfolk, so it's looking like this is about the mark for him that we should be looking for. He could creep up to a more traditional .300 mark soon, but around .270 feels like the Mayo milestone we should aim for.
Heading on over to Baseball Savant, we can see that his .307 wOBA is paired with a .302 xwOBA. That xwOBA isn't entirely impressive, sitting in the 25th percentile, but it at least shows us that his results on the season have been rather true.
His second half has certainly looked better, but there may be some luck happening here. His .398 wOBA in the second half is paired with a .319 xwOBA. Is that mostly because his hits are just finding holes? Or is he getting a bunch of soft contact?
From a full season perspective, you wouldn't think that. His hard-hit rate of 48.6% ranks in the 86th percentile while his 11.4% barrel rate ranks in the 72nd percentile. He's not hitting the ball hard as often in the second half, but it's still a respectable 41.9% rate that also has a 12.9% barrel rate. So for the most part, these numbers are staying the same.
The only aspect of Mayo's second half that truly looks like luck is the fact he has a .429 BABIP in this span. That's well above his norms, so there's certainly an element of luck here. But there's nothing concerning in his batted ball profile or contact skills that make me think there's another obvious aspect of luck he's benefiting from.
As we move onto the pitch mix he faces, there's really only one pitch that's expecting some major regression that will make an impact. That will be sliders. He's only hit them for a .280 wOBA to go along with a .233 xwOBA. That's a weakness of his that's going to continue to stay a weakness. Pitchers throw him sliders 20.1% of the time and I'd expect that to continue.
If he faces a pitcher that relies on sinkers, though, he's in a very advantageous spot. He's hit those for a .434 wOBA to go with a .401 xwOBA. He's going to excel against those often.
Verdict: The only real knock I have on Mayo here is his high strikeout rate. His contact stats clearly show that when he puts it in play that he's generally going to do good things with it (.418 xwOBACON). It's just he whiffs way too much.
But, with him being on 2% of rosters, he's still going to grade out as a buy. Is he going to keep up this type of 160 wRC+ production for the rest of the season? No, probably not. But he should still finish somewhere in the 110 range when all is said and done. Find a spot for him on your roster, if you can, and prioritize him in your lineup whenever the Orioles are facing lefties.
Taylor Trammell, OF, Houston Astros
2026 Stats: .741 OPS, 109 OPS+, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 25 R, 3 SB, 1% Rostered (Yahoo!)
Now let's head on down to Houston for a batter who can help you out when he's got a solid platoon advantage. Trammell often gets overlooked in Houston with the other talent on the roster but he can certainly hold his own from the left side of the plate. Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena have led the Astros' offense in the second half, but Trammell has been a solid third option with a .918 OPS and four homers.
In fact, he's leading the Astros in barrel rate since the All-Star break. It's coming in at 17.1%, looking more impressive than Alvarez's 13.6% rate in the same span. All of this is looking like a breakout, but you know the deal by now. Let's find out if he's a breakout or a fake out.
Taylor Trammell (7) GOES DEEP 🚀
103.6 mph · 409 ft · 30°
RHP Michael King · 96 mph four-seam fastball⚾ HOU 1 - SD 1 • Top 2nd pic.twitter.com/aT6ydtsIb7
— PlayPulse HRs (@PlayPulseHRs) August 8, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, Trammell clearly is prioritizing power in a similar way to Mayo was. His strikeout rate is sitting at 29.8% on the season, slightly lower than last year's 30.4% rate. His walk rate is down, though, sitting at 8.8% vs last year's 12.6% number.
Part of this is because he's chasing more this season than he did last year, but a 26.6% rate is fairly close to his 24.8% career mark. Pitchers are also throwing him a lot more first pitch strikes, with this number up to 66.3% compared to 57.8% last year. It's not much, but I think this is impacting his drop in walk rate.
Moving onto his batted ball profile, we've got a mixed bag in terms of results. The ground-ball rate is up to 43.3% from last year's 40.5% number. The fly-ball rate is also up, hitting 46.2% compared to 44.6% in 2025. But that's all adding up to a decrease in line drive rate, dropping to 10.6% from last year's 14.9%.
I'm not huge on the drop here as it's one of the lower line drive rates we've evaluated in this year's Breakouts vs Fake Outs series. However, Trammell is getting the job done when he gets it in the air. His 14.6% HR/FB rate is well up from last year's 9.1% mark.
Moving on to BABIP, Trammell's clocking in with a .313 BABIP this season. That's the highest mark of his career with his previous high being last season's .270 mark. Most of this year's mark came from his first half results, which ironically resulted in just a .664 OPS, well below his second half mark.
Now let's go check Baseball Savant to see what the expected stats say. His .327 wOBA is paired with a .315 xwOBA. That xwOBA would rank in the 43rd percentile, so just a bit below league average. A little bit of negative regression isn't surprising here, especially factoring in the lower line drive rate, but contact skills should help paint the picture.
His hard-hit rate of 35.5% would rank in the 24th percentile, putting him on par with Masyn Winn of the Cardinals. But his barrel rate of 12.1% would rank in the 80th percentile. That's the same rate as Bobby Witt Jr. So we've got a bit of a complicated scenario here where Trammell's not always punishing the ball, but when he gets it he generally destroys it.
For the pitch mix, pitchers have prioritize four-seamers against Trammell. They've thrown him four-seamers 37.5% of the time, which feels quite a bit higher than most hitters see them. You'd assume that's a weakness, but Trammell is actually expecting positive regression here. He's hit them for a respectable .330 wOBA that's paired with a .388 xwOBA.
That's just one piece of the equation, though. He's been weak against changeups, which is the pitch he sees the second-most often. Given how well they play off of four-seamers, it makes sense why these two are the top two pitches he sees. He's only hit them for a .274 wOBA and it's paired with a .234 xwOBA. At a 12.6% rate, that negative regression is going to be stymied some.
But He's also struggling against sliders. They're a very similar story to changeups with a .286 wOBA and a .226 xwOBA. He also sees them at a 12.6% rate. Combine those and the negative regression between the two will take away from most of the positive regression that four-seamers are going to see.
One pitch he's going to stay solid against is cutters. He's hit them for a .572 wOBA that's paired with a .490 xwOBA. If a pitcher loves his cutter a little too much then Trammell will make for an excellent play against him.
Verdict: A lot of times when it comes down to the buy vs sell conversation, I factor in how many rosters a player is on. With Trammell, he's not overwhelming impressive but he does have appeal at times. That barrel rate is such a key statistic that's giving him fantasy value.
With him being on just 1% of rosters, he makes for a very low-risk add. He does carry some risk as a platoon matchup, but against righties (especially on the road) he's going to provide a ton of value. Don't make any drastic moves to add him, but if you need another outfielder on your bench you could do a lot worse.
Bryson Stott, 2B/3B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies
2026 Stats: .756 OPS, 102 OPS+, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 51 R, 22 SB, 62% Rostered (Yahoo!)
When you think of the 2026 Phillies and their lineup it's obvious that you're thinking of guys like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber first. They're the mainstays that are always going to provide power. Trea Turner's going to provide a mix of average and speed.
But in the second half of the season, it's been Stott who's been the Phillies' most productive hitter. His .996 OPS leads the team among batters that have stepped to the plate at least 40 times. He's been around, but we still have to ask the question: Are we witnessing a breakout or a fake out?
It's a 5-RBI night for Bryson Stott! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/LwtMZ3HbLf
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 27, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, his full season numbers look very similar to how they did last year. His 17.0% strikeout rate is a touch above last year's 16.3% mark while his 9.5% walk rate is nearly identical to 2025's 9.6% mark. No major changes here.
His batted ball profile looks relatively similar too. There are minor drops in his ground-ball rate (40.1% to 39.6%) and his fly-ball rate (40.8% to 39.9%). That's resulting in an increase to his line drive rate (20.4% vs 19.1%). All that's pretty close together.
One major difference during this hot streak is him hitting way more line drives. He's posting a 28.6% line drive rate since the All-Star break. That's well above his career marks but is a huge reason he's succeeding at the rate he is right now.
As we move onto BABIP, we're seeing a decent increase over last year's mark. He's got a .306 BABIP this season while it was at .288 last season. He's posting a .312 mark before, so being right around .300 seems like a good spot for him. This isn't indicating any type of luck quite yet.
As we move on to his Baseball Savant page, we see that his .332 wOBA is paired with a .335 xwOBA. That's in the 67th percentile, giving us a pretty solid hitter from the left side of the plate. It's about 20-points higher than his xwOBA in 2025, which ranked in the 34th percentile.
That's being influenced by some improvements in his contact stats. His hard-hit rate of 40.5% is up from last year's 29.5% mark. His barrel rate is up to 6.6% from last year's 5.1% mark. Both are career highs for the 28-year-old. Neither are going to look all that impressive compared to league average (37th percentile for barrel rate, 47th percentile for hard-hit rate), but the increases are certainly helping to stabilize his production.
As we look at his pitch mix, there are four pitches in the top five he sees that are expecting positive regression. Most impactful will be sinkers (.357 wOBA, .386 xwOBA) and changeups (.316 wOBA, .353 xwOBA). Those are solid numbers currently with floors that are even better.
One pitch he's been lucky with is sliders. He's crushing them for a .434 wOBA but it's got a .337 xwOBA paired with it. The good news is that the .337 number is still a really solid floor. The bad news is that's quite a bit of negative regression.
Another aspect we need to consider with Stott is his stolen bases. At 22 stolen bases on the season, he's nearly a top-ten bag swiper. Add that into the fact that he's getting on base more and it just gives him more opportunities.
Verdict: I'm certainly encouraged by some of the changes that Stott is seeing in his contact skills. While not upper echelon, he's hitting the ball harder and barreling it more. That's all adding up to more chances to get on base and swipe bags. For those in category leagues, stolen bases could be something you really need to factor in, and Stott's certainly a fit there.
Consider Stott a buy, especially with him being on just 62% of rosters. There are other options that have been more intriguing on Philly this season, no doubt, but there is a lot to love with Stott's profile. With some versatility on the positions you can plug him in at, there should be a spot on your roster for him. As with the others, don't make drastic moves. But if he can fit, try to make it work in a way that makes sense.
Osleivis Basabe, 2B/3B/SS, San Francisco Giants
2026 Stats: .853 OPS, 134 OPS+, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 1 SB, 6% Rostered (Yahoo!)
In what felt like an overnight turn of events, the Giants all of a sudden found themselves short on infielders. Both Matt Chapman and Casey Schmitt were lost to injuries while Luis Arraez got traded away to Philadelphia. That created some openings and Basabe has been taking advantage.
In ten games, he's posted an .853 OPS and has already knocked three homers out of the park. There's not much left for the Giants to play for this year, but the 25-year-old looks like he may just be that diamond in the rough that can help out your fantasy team in the playoffs. So is this outburst looking like a breakout? Or a fake out? Let's see what's in store for Basabe.
WHERE WERE YOU FOR THE OSLEIVIS BASABE GAME 🫨 pic.twitter.com/Is741eNksy
— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) August 2, 2026
Starting with the plate approach, He's coming in with an 18.2% strikeout rate that's pretty similar to his numbers he posted in Triple-A Sacramento in 2025 for the Giants. This season it was down to 10.9% in Triple-A, so we can consider 18.2% a rather true number.
He's yet to draw a walk, though. That's a bit surprising, especially since in Triple-A this year he had a walk rate of 9.6%. Could be some nerves at the major league level after not having any PAs in the majors since 2023, but I'd have expected at least one walk in ten games.
With his batted ball profile, he's clocking in with a 42.3% ground-ball rate, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and an 11.5% line drive rate. The main difference here between the majors and minors is what he's doing with balls in the air. The last two seasons at Triple-A featured 26.3% and 31.1% fly-ball rates tied with line drive rates in the low 20s.
The ground-ball rate was also a bit higher, but I think the larger impact is going to be reflected on the line drives. I would believe that over time we'll see him decrease his fly-ball rate and increase the line drive rate. That may take away from some of his homers, but at the minor league level he wasn't exactly a huge power hitter anyways.
Checking in on his BABIP, we see he's got a .217 mark on the season. Part of what's going to influence this is his homers tied in with the small sample size we've seen so far. He's been around a .280 mark in the minors, so expect him to get closer to that number going forward as power decreases.
Heading on over to his Baseball Savant page, we can check on the expected stats. So far he's posting a .354 wOBA that's paired with a .319 xwOBA. That xwOBA would rank in the 47th percentile, putting him on par with a hitter like Xavier Edwards.
Moving onto his contact stats, his hard-hit rate is coming in at 38.5% with a barrel rate of 16.0%. The number that's true here is the hard-hit rate. He was at 34.0% in Triple-A this year while it was at 38.1% in 2025. The barrel rate, however, is well above what he did in the minors. That number was at 4.1% this year and 4.0% in 2025. Don't expect the homers to continue happening in the same way.
As far as the pitch mix, it's hard to take much from such a small sample size. He's done most of his damage against sinkers, hitting them for a .643 wOBA. Four-seamers have been solid for him as well as he's hitting them for a .361 wOBA.
He hasn't had much success against other pitches, but I think a lot of that is simply us looking at a ten-game sample size. I'd expect pitchers are going to try to use more breaking balls against him, especially if he continues hitting well against fastballs.
Verdict: There's a bit of overachieving happening with Basabe early on. The homers are great for those that have already cashed in, but it's not likely to continue to happen. At the same time, he's getting unlucky on balls in play with such a low BABIP. That batted ball profile needs to get closer to his minor league performance in order for that to increase.
And I think it will. When all is said and done, I think we're looking at someone who performs closer to a 100 OPS+ compared to his current 134 OPS+. He's a little more about contact than power, which should work fine at Oracle Park anyways. At 6% rostered he's considered a buy, but the other three batters we've discussed should be higher priority adds. Take a shot if you feel like it. He's a very low-risk add, as are two of the other three, but he's already reached his ceiling.
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