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Rob's must-draft fantasy football wide receivers and potential league-winners for 2026. His undervalued WRs and value picks with upside, including Zay Flowers.
Fantasy managers should always be on the lookout for upside and potential. These are the players that we should be targeting endlessly. Now, will they all become "league-winners"? Well, now that is up to your definition of the term. The reality is league-winners are rare.
However, these players provide fantasy managers with plenty of upside based on their cost and the ability to get a positive return on their investment. These are all young, highly talented players with elite quarterbacks on elite offenses. They all possess the ability to outplay their draft slot and maybe, just maybe, become league winners.
That's a trifecta there. These are exactly the kind of players and situations that fantasy managers need to be targeting. This is the second entry into this three-part series. Be sure to check out the first entry here, and look for the final installment coming soon. As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.
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Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
There are some concerns with Flowers related to his touchdown rate, as well as his red zone and end-zone utilization. However, there's no denying the kind of production he displayed this past season despite several challenging circumstances. Before we get to the good - and there's a lot of it - let's touch on the reasons why Flowers won't reach the next level.
Truthfully, there's only one reason - touchdowns. However, other players have struggled with touchdowns, specifically Trey McBride, and he was able to conquer that which held him back. Flowers' touchdown issue is a little different, but the underlying metrics display a much larger problem than just bad luck.
In 2023, Flowers ranked 35th in red zone and 71st in end zone targets among receivers. That was his rookie year, so things have gotten better, right? Well, not exactly. The following season, he ranked 73rd in red zone and 42nd in end zone targets.
This past season, Flowers finished 49th and 64th in red zone and end zone targets, respectively. Simply put, based on his utilization, there's little reason, if any, to believe he's going to score more touchdowns in the future.
Now that we got that out of the way, let's talk about all the reasons Flowers could be on the verge of another career season. Last season, he finished with 86 receptions, 1,211 yards, and five touchdowns on 118 targets. He set career-highs in targets, receptions, and yards. He did this despite the Ravens finishing the season with just 422 pass attempts. The next closest was at 469.
422 was the third-fewest pass attempts in a season since 2010. That's 16 years and 32 teams. 512 different seasons, which puts their passing attempt output below the first percentile. It would not be an exaggeration to assume that Baltimore may end up passing the ball 75-100 more times in 2026.
Not only that, but 119 of those pass attempts didn't come from Lamar Jackson, but rather Tyler Huntley and Cooper Rush. Jackson had a 7.0% touchdown rate. Huntley and Rush were at 1.7%. Jackson averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt. The backup duo sat at just 6.1 yards per pass attempt.
This is going to be something to keep in the back of your mind as you look at where Flowers finished in a number of key statistics last season among 76 receivers with at least 50 targets last season:
- 27.7% Target Share (eighth)
- 71.2 Yards Per Game (11th)
- 36.9% of Team's Passing Yards (third)
- 2.61 Yards Per Route Run (sixth)
- 10.35 Yards Per Target (ninth)
- 5.42 Yards After the Catch Per Reception (10th)
- 33.3% First-Read Target Share (10th)
- 0.23 Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception (seventh)
- 66.7% Contested Catch Rate (12th)
- 12.0 Half-PPR PPG (13th)
- 0.44 Fantasy Points Per Route Run (seventh)
With Jackson fully healthy in 2026 and seemingly highly motivated under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, this offense is bound to bounce back in a major way. Considering what Flowers was able to accomplish despite the dreadful working conditions last season, Flowers may not even need to score more touchdowns in 2026 to get to the next level.
"This is the third time that the Ravens have hired a new OC since drafting [Lamar Jackson] in 2018. The previous two times he won NFL MVP in the first year with the new OC."
—@LauraRutledge on Lamar Jackson working with Baltimore Ravens new OC Declan Doyle 🏈 pic.twitter.com/5cTnahFrjB
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) June 29, 2026
It's quite possible, however, that Flowers finds the end zone more in 2026 simply because of the elevated quarterback play and increased passing volume. The Ravens had 422 pass attempts last year. If we elevate that to 500, which would still rank 23rd in the NFL last season, and use Flowers' averages from last year, he would have added 22 targets.
That would have resulted in 16 more catches, 226 more yards, and one more touchdown. This would have elevated his stat line to 140 targets, 102 receptions, 1,437 yards, and 6 touchdowns. This would have resulted in a 13.6 half-PPR PPG, which would have been WR10. Give him just one more touchdown, and now he's at WR8. Yeah, we're buying!
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson, on a per-route basis, is one of the more effective receivers in the NFL. These are the facts, and they are undisputed. Last year, he was seventh in yards per route run with a 2.45 average among 76 receivers with 50 or more targets. He was sixth in yards per target at 10.44 and fourth in yards per reception at 17.03.
Watson was 11th in first downs per route run and fifth in fantasy points per route run at 0.48. He was tied with superstar Drake London. He averaged more fantasy points per route than Ja'Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Nico Collins. This isn't a new development either. The one thing holding Watson back is field time.
Now, some of that is because of the injuries, but he did make it through last season unscathed. He missed the first half of the season rehabbing from his torn ACL he suffered at the end of the 2024 season. The bigger concern has been his route share when he has been on the field. Last year, among those 76 receivers with 50 targets, Watson was 53rd at 68.6% with 264 routes.
Romeo Doubs, who is now in New England, had 423 routes with a 72.9% route share, ranking 46th. The Packers also traded Dontayvion Wicks to Philadelphia, and for the first time since Watson was drafted in 2022, he seems poised to be a true full-time receiver. This isn't perfect mathematics, but in doing so, you can begin to see the potential here for Watson.
If we simply give Watson the 423 routes Doubs had, he would've finished with 1,036 yards. However, even Doubs sat at just 72.9%. What if Watson had run 450 routes? Then he would've had 1,103 yards. It's no mystery that Matt LaFleur has kept the reins on Jordan Love in recent years, but it seems the winds of change are swirling.
Matt LaFleur when talking about whether or not they should run the ball more this season:
“Do you want us to run the ball more?… We’re gonna let him (Jordan Love) cook”
Jordan Love is PRIMED for a Career year this season🧀🔥 pic.twitter.com/0k5QPm7VhW
— Carson Caldwell (@caldwellcorner_) July 31, 2026
In 2024 and 2025, Love averaged less than 30 pass attempts per game. In 2023, however, he averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game. With no Micah Parsons until Week 6 or later, the Packers may need to lean on Love and the offense even more. From 2019-2022, all under LaFleur, Aaron Rodgers averaged 33.3 passes per game. Let's say Love just averages 32 passes per game. That would be 544 attempts.
This year, there is no debate.
The Packers have their "Big 3" at receiver with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed extended, and 2025 first-round pick Matthew Golden primed for more playing time.
"Countdown to Camp" continues with a look at the receiver and tight end positions. pic.twitter.com/Ph442bvToZ
— weston hodkiewicz (@WesHod) July 22, 2026
With reports the Packers are abandoning the receiver-by-committee approach, what if Watson has a 90% route share on 544 pass attempts? That would be 490 routes and on his 2.45 yard per route run average he posted last season, he'd finish with 1,201 yards. Given the changes the Packers are talking about this offseason, it's easy to see why Watson could be on the verge of a breakout season.
Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears
It seems as though everyone is in on Burden, and there's good reason for that. On a per-route basis, Burden showed extreme potential last year as a rookie, and head coach Ben Johnson can't stop gushing over him. During the offseason, it's normal - expected even - for coaches to talk up their players; what Johnson is doing with Burden is going to the next level.
Bears coach Ben Johnson said Luther Burden III has a "destiny" to be great and compared him to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
📸 Stephen R. Sylvanie, Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images https://t.co/gxsLoqJluB pic.twitter.com/oxqNAinr0p
— Bears Wire (@TheBearsWire) August 5, 2026
When you start throwing around words like "great" and "destiny," consider me intrigued, but when you compare him to Amon-Ra St. Brown, you have my complete attention. Johnson played on one of the best offenses in the NFL during his time in Detroit, and you can see a lot of similarities in how they were built and how Chicago is built.
They both have elite offensive lines. They both have great receiving tight ends in Colston Loveland and Sam LaPorta. Rome Odunze and Jameson Williams operate as X-receivers who can win downfield, and then there's the engine of the Detroit passing game, Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Burden, from a skill and size standpoint, has a lot of overlap with the Lions' superstar receiver. Burden, to his credit, showed glimpses of that last season despite his limited snap count.
Burden didn't log a 50% snap share until Week 12. In the remaining six games of the regular season, he averaged 67.2 yards per game, a pace of 1,142 yards over 17-games. If we look at his efficiency stats during this sample and see where he'd have finished among receivers for the season, fantasy managers won't be able to contain their excitement.
- 29% Target Rate (*Would've Been Seventh Among 80 Receivers with 50+ Targets*)
- 67.2 Yards Per Game (*12th*)
- 3.15 Yards Per Route Run (*3rd*)
- 10.08 Yards Per Target (*11th*)
- 7.68 Yards After Contact Per Reception (*2nd*)
- 0.32 Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception (*1st*)
- 0.148 First Downs Per Route Run (*3rd*)
- 0.50 Fantasy Points Per Route Run (*4th*)
Six games isn't the biggest sample size in the world, but even if we look at his entire season, the elite efficiency jumps off the page. He wasn't just a small sample merchant. He did this over the course of the full season. Unfortunately, he just didn't get as many opportunities early in the season, but below you'll be able to see what Burden looked like in the same statistics above, but from Weeks 1-18:
- 26% Target Rate
- 43.5 Yards Per Game
- 2.83 Yards Per Route Run
- 10.87 Yards Per Target
- 7.23 Yards After Contact Per Reception
- 0.23 Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception
- 0.117 First Downs Per Route Run
- 0.45 Fantasy Points Per Run
Like Watson above, the thing that held Burden back was tied directly to his route share, which sat at just 41.0% for the season. Former Bear D.J. Moore ran 512 routes compared to Burden's 230. Had Burden run 512 on his 0.45 fantasy points per route run average, he would've finished with 230.4 half-PPR points and a 13.5 half-PPR PPG average. That would've been WR10 last season.
It's possible that Burden's efficiency drops a bit with an increase to his routes and snaps. However, as illustrated above, there's plenty of room for that to occur and for fantasy managers to still get more from Burden than they paid. It's possible Burden maintains that same efficiency - after all, he was just a rookie last season!
It's not uncommon for rookies to get better, and if that's the case for Burden, alongside the improvement we should be expecting from this entire offense in their second season under the command of Ben Johnson, Burden could ascend to top-10 fantasy football status - a true league winner.
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