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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/8/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Matt Olson, A.J. Ewing, and others!
Happy Wednesday, RotoBaller family! Major League Baseball has a giant Wednesday night slate on tap, with six games starting just before 7:00 p.m. ET and eight more spread throughout the rest of the evening. There's just one matinee, with almost every team available under the lights. The hot, humid summer weather is great for long balls, and there are plenty of options to consider for home run props this last Wednesday before the All-Star break. Let's swing for the fences with the four picks analyzed below.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. Today's four picks are all left-handed hitters in good spots to go yard based on splits, matchups, and environment. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, July 8, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/8/2026)
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+376 Kalshi)
Olson has at least 29 homers in seven straight full seasons (not counting 2020), and he's already sitting at 24 long balls this year. He has been an incredibly consistent source of power in the heart of the Braves' batting order, and he has been heating up lately, coming into Wednesday's matchup against Jared Jones in Pittsburgh.
Olson smashed a pair of homers on Monday and went 1-for-4 with a double in the series opener against the Pirates. He has four homers in his last five games and seven homers in his 24 games over the last 30 days.
Should Matt Olson have been named the NL's starting 1B?
Season Stats:
24 HR
57 RBI
.273 AVG | .344 OBP | .890 OPSPace: 44 HR / 104 RBI#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/PaOkqn4vfC
— PaceBall (@paceball__) July 7, 2026
Olson has an excellent 14.2% barrel rate on the season, and he has hit 15 of his 24 homers against righties with a .920 OPS and .304 ISO. He also has 15 of his 24 homers on the road with a .971 OPS and .328 ISO. He's on the road against a righty on Wednesday, so the splits are definitely in his favor.
It also helps Olson's home run props that he's facing Jared Jones, who has allowed five homers in seven starts, spanning 29 innings. Lefties like Olson have hit four of those five home runs and have a .299 batting average and a 49% hard-hit rate against him. Jones has especially struggled in his home starts, posting a 6.92 home ERA with three homers allowed in 13 innings.
A.J. Ewing OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 theScoreBET)
Let's take a long shot for our second home run prop of the night. The Mets are in a good home run spot against the Royals at Citi Field with the wind blowing out and warm temperatures. On Tuesday, the Mets lost a 16-12 slugfest to the Royals with each team hitting two homers. The Royals are starting Steven Cruz at the start of a bullpen game and will be piecing things together after having to rely on five relievers on Tuesday as well.
Juan Soto and Carson Benge are plays that I like a lot in this spot, but they don't bring the value that comes from backing A.J. Ewing at +800. The 21-year-old rookie lefty only hit three homers in 124 games in the minors last year, but he has been able to find a much better homer groove this season, and he's moved to a premium lineup spot for the Mets while riding his recent surge.
He hit leadoff for the third time this season on Tuesday and went 4-for-4 with four runs scored, three RBI, a walk, and this home run.
A.J. Ewing clubs a two-run homer 🍎 pic.twitter.com/ISsxHtlMVd
— MLB (@MLB) July 7, 2026
Ewing is up to six homers in his 52 MLB games this season, with four in his last 13 games. During that stretch, he's batting .349 (15-for-43) and has adjusted incredibly well to how he's being pitched. The Royals didn't have any answer on Tuesday, and he will look to keep rolling this Wednesday.
Of his six homers, five have been at Citi Field, where he's hitting .310 with a .958 OPS. Ewing brings tons of value at this price in Wednesday night's matchup.
