MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/16/2026)

April 16, 2026

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/16/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jesus Sanchez, Yandy Diaz, Cam Smith, and more!

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a decent-sized slate for us on this wonderful Thursday. We don't usually have this big a slate, as Thursday is a usual day off for a lot of teams. That being said, there are a few spots that have my interest.

On this slate, I have four home runs to cover for y'all today. Three of them have really good odds to take advantage of as soon as possible! Anytime we can get a few guys with +500 or better odds in really good spots, I try to take advantage of them as fast as I can. Let's dive into this slate, why don't we!

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, April 16, 2026. All odds are going to be what was available at the time of writing this, so make sure to shop around and see if you can find better odds on other books.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/16/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, April 16.

Jesus Sanchez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 Fanatics)

It's about time we have a decent-sized Thursday, which gives me more options to choose from, and I'm going to attack Brandon Sproat to start us off.

Sproat had a solid year last season for the Mets before being traded in the offseason. This year, it hasn't been as kind to him. He has already given up four home runs, two to each side of the plate. It's unfortunate to see, but he hasn't even made it out of the fourth inning in any of his three starts.

Looking at this Toronto offense, there was really only one guy who stood out to take against Sproat. Jesus Sanchez has been the clear power bat against righties so far. He has two home runs and is already sporting a 12.5% Barrel% and a 47% HardHit%. The biggest shock has been that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still doesn't have a home run against righties this season.

Both sides of the plate have hit Sproat hard, but it's been the lefties who have a whopping .789 SLG, .368 ISO, 12.5% Barrel%, and a 56.3% HardHit%. He has also struggled to strike out lefties as well, which gives me even more reason to focus on Sanchez in this spot.

The big reason I love this play is the pitch mix. Both of Sproat's home runs against lefties have come off his cutter, which Sanchez has demolished so far this season. The sinker, changeup, and cutter have been his main pitches, and Sanchez has done well against them all. This is a great play, especially when we can get him at +500 odds!

Sanchez is batting fourth in Toronto's lineup on Thursday.

Yandy Diaz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+389 DraftKings)

This Tampa Bay Rays offense has been very lackluster to start the year, particularly in home runs, where they rank in the bottom three in the league. They are going up against Anthony Kay, whom I went against last week with the Royals, and he came out and pitched a solid game. So, that sounds like my luck there. I still think it's a good spot, especially for hard-hitting righties.

So far this season, right-handed hitters have a .474 SLG, .237 ISO, 17.1% Barrel%, and a 57.1% HardHit%. The righties have quite literally done all the damage against him. He hasn't given up a single hit to a lefty in his three starts so far.

Yandy Díaz goes the other way for a 1st-inning homer 💪 pic.twitter.com/vyTgeCM6zo

— MLB (@MLB) April 10, 2026

I'm going with Yandy Diaz today, despite his lack of a barrel against lefties so far this season. That lack of barrels against lefties hasn't stopped him from putting up an absurd 71.4% HardHit%. If he can get under the ball more, he is due for some big home runs.

Against lefties so far this season, he has seven batted balls of 102 mph exit velocity or higher. Last season, Diaz hammered 11 home runs to the tune of a 15.3% Barrel% and 59% HardHit% against southpaws. He also gets a slight edge with 10 mph winds blowing out to left field, which should give the righty an extra bump. The big thing is just getting them in the air rather than the lasers he's been hitting lately.

Cam Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+540 FanDuel)

It wouldn't be a home run article if I didn't pick on Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano last year gave up 34 home runs. Both sides of the plate pounded him, but it's been the righties this season that have crushed him. He is already sporting a 22.2% Barrel% and a 51.8% HardHit% in his first three starts of the season.

The advantage here is that the Astros have a very righty-heavy lineup, which gives us plenty of options to hit one into those short Crawford Boxes. I went back and forth between Christian Walker and Cam Smith and eventually landed on Smith because of how hard he has been hitting the ball in recent games. On top of that, we get quite a bit better odds at +540 compared to +370 for Walker.

Across his last five games, he has 11 batted balls of 98 mph or faster. Just before that five-game stretch, he hit a towering 462-foot home run with an exit velo of 111 mph! Smith is leading the team in Barrel% against righties this season at 21.6% and has a 56.8% HardHit% to go with it.

WATCH IT FLY!#ChaseTheFight pic.twitter.com/m3njz2Iss6

— Houston Astros (@astros) April 7, 2026

The only real downside to this play is that Smith has hit relatively lower in the lineup this year, so he might not see as many at-bats as someone like Jose Altuve or Isaac Paredes. But that's also why we are getting better odds on him, too.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 Fanatics)

Julio Rodriguez is getting the batted balls. He leads the team in average exit velocity across the last 10 games against right-handed pitching at just over 92 mph.

That includes two batted balls that he hit over 102 mph in last night's loss to the Padres, one of which was robbed for a homer in the middle of writing this article. There is no doubt that the power is there for Rodriguez. It is locating the pitch a bit better.

He is going up against Walker Buehler, who is someone I liked to pick on for home runs quite a bit last year. He has some reverse splits as righties have hit him much better to the tune of a 2.10 HR/9.

That being said, it is really just Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena as the two righties in the lineup. So far, right-handed hitters have a 44% HardHit% against Buehler on the season with one home run.

Jackson Merrill ROBS JULIO RODRÍGUEZ OF A HOMER! pic.twitter.com/ZMWtLlmhjC

— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2026

The odds are too high for me not to take a shot here on Rodriguez. Last season, he had a Barrel% of 13.5% and a HardHit% of 47.6%. He has been off to a slow start, but he has shown flashes this season of hard hits, and it's only a matter of time before he starts firing on all cylinders.

More Fantasy Baseball Advice