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Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets on Saturday, 1/10/26. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.
We are closing in on one of the most exciting weekends of NFL football -- Wild Card Weekend! We have six games spread out over three days and some really fantastic matchups.
I'll focus mainly on the games on Saturday and Sunday, which is probably a good thing since I am a Steelers fan who hates wagering on or against my favorite team.
I want to take this opportunity to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for the Wild Card games this weekend!
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus
Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.
You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!
You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NFL Picks Against the Spread
Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline (+100 NOVIG) vs. Buffalo Bills
I will keep this one fairly simple -- I think the wrong team is favored here, and the public is slowly starting to come around to my line of thinking as the line has moved toward Jacksonville as the week has gone along.
The Jags have won eight straight games and have simply been a better, more balanced team than the Bills this year. I know that Josh Allen and his Superman cape are the ultimate equalizer, but I have a lot of confidence in Trevor Lawrence to continue his strong play and that the fourth-ranked Jags defense can slow down James Cook III and force the Bills to beat them through the air.
Chicago Bears Moneyline (+111 NOVIG) vs. Green Bay Packers
I love the home underdogs this week (but refuse to bet on my Steelers), so I have to get my action on the Jags and Bears, who both rate out as the favorites in their matchups in my DVOA model.
There's plenty of skepticism as to whether or not the Bears can step up in a big spot with their lack of playoff experience, and the Packers are really banged up and limped into the playoffs, too.
Ultimately, I love the fact that Chicago can lean on its run game and that it has the momentum working in its favor. This should be a sweaty one, but I like the Bears' chances of moving on to the next round. I mean, they are the No. 2 seed, folks, let's put some respect on the season that they just put together under first-year head coach Ben Johnson.
L.A. Chargers (+3.5) at New England Patriots (+100 NOVIG)
The fact that we can get the Chargers at plus money and the benefit of the extra half point is a beautiful thing. I know the Patriots had a terrific season, but they weren't tested very often, especially down the stretch.
This Chargers team has some holes on the offensive line, but they have a good young quarterback who has plenty of weapons at his disposal and a very talented defense that could create some issues for Drake Maye on the other side of the ball. If the Patriots do advance, I think they do it in a close win. We just need the Chargers to keep it within a field goal, and I think their defense can keep them in this one.
NFL Passing Prop Bets
Jordan Love OVER 220.5 Passing Yards (-116 NOVIG)
The Packers are a run-first team on offense; however, I think this matchup will dictate that they throw the ball to find success against Chicago. The biggest weakness of this Chicago defense is its inability to stop the pass, which has become glaringly obvious toward the end of the season, as Brock Purdy and Jared Goff both threw for over 300 yards in their final two games.
Enter Jordan Love, who had been playing some of his best football late in the year before he got hurt against Chicago in Week 16. Love had thrown for 234 or more yards in three straight games coming into the rematch with the Bears and eight touchdowns.
Jordan Love was perhaps the NFL’s third-best QB before the second half of Week 15, when the Packers unraveled before he suffered a concussion in Chicago a week later.
He hasn’t played since, but Love returns to Solider Field healthy & dangerous.
Story: https://t.co/1M2tKM9b1Z pic.twitter.com/zIp32qJCoO
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) January 8, 2026
With Chicago playing a high rate of man coverage, Love and his receivers should have plenty of one-on-one matchups that work in their favor. Love has been one of the best QBs against man coverage this season in terms of yards per attempt. While playoff games can often be low-scoring as teams play a bit more conservatively, I think this game has the potential to shoot out, with two really good young quarterbacks and two offenses that will be a challenge for the opposing defenses to hold in check.
Rushing Prop Bets
Kyren Williams OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-109 NOVIG)
The Rams are this weekend's biggest favorite as they head into Carolina at -10.5. They also bring the top-ranked rush attack in the NFL into this matchup against a Panthers team that ranks just 24th in DVOA rush defense.
The only reason we get such a low number on Williams here is that he's been splitting carries with Blake Corum for most of the season. But let's not forget why the Rams used that approach. It was to make sure that Williams was healthy and ready to roll for the playoffs, right?
I think we see the Rams exert their will on Carolina on the ground this week, with Williams leading the way. Corum will certainly work in and get his touches, too, but this matchup proved quite fruitful for both backs the first time these two teams met earlier this season, as Williams ran for 72 yards on 13 carries and Corum added 81 on seven totes of his own.
Williams has exceeded this number in eight of his last 10 games, while the Carolina run defense has allowed opposing lead backs to go over in nine of their last 10. This is easily one of my favorite props of the weekend, as the Rams are a total mismatch for Carolina in the trenches and should have their way up front.
NFL Receiving Prop Bets
Dalton Kincaid OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-126 NOVIG)
I think you could make the argument that Kincaid is the best receiver that Josh Allen has at his disposal this weekend without too much pushback. Yes, Khalil Shakir is a very solid slot receiver who helps this offense move the chains in the short passing game. But Kincaid is the type of big, athletic playmaker who can open things up for this offense by getting open down the field.
Kincaid's output has been sporadic this season and tapered off a bit down the stretch. But this is a spot where the Bills are going to need to utilize their tight ends (Dawson Knox is an appealing option, too) against a Jags team that has allowed the seventh-most yards to opposing tight ends this season.
I love targeting some of these lower numbers on good players. Kincaid is a bona fide stud who could crush this number with only a few catches. Don't be surprised if he goes over in the first half!
Ladd McConkey OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards (-120 NOVIG)
McConkey's season trajectory is similar to Kincaid's in that his production spiked midseason and has fallen off in the second half. He's not going to show up on the recent trends data for most bettors, since he has put up 40 yards receiving just once in his last six games.
However, this is a tremendous spot for McConkey and the Chargers pass-catchers in general. The Patriots defense can stop the run, and the Chargers have struggled to run the football consistently. This sets up as a game where Justin Herbert is going to have to throw the ball a lot, and he should be able to find some success against New England's 25th-ranked pass defense.
Believe it or not, the Patriots rank dead last in DVOA against WR1s this season. We usually worry that Christian Gonzalez is going to shut down the opposing team's top option, but McConkey likely won't see him on every snap, as he tends to line up all over the formation. Again, it's a very low bar and a very good player in a plus matchup -- sign me up!
Anytime Touchdown Bets
Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+291 NOVIG)
It's a theme with my touchdown bets this weekend; we are rolling with the often undervalued tight ends! The Rams have an embarrassment of riches at the tight end position, as Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, Davis Allen, and Tyler Higbee have all had big games this year.
Ferguson is out this week, and Allen is a clear third option behind Parkinson and Higbee. I like this number on Parkinson, considering he finished second on the team with a 22.7% red-zone target rate behind only Davante Adams.
Parkinson has been a touchdown machine since midseason. He has eight touchdowns in his last nine games. The Rams have the highest-implied team total this weekend, and I love the odds on Parkinson scoring once if we think the Rams score about four touchdowns in this spot.
Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown (+190 NOVIG)
Goedert enjoyed his best season in terms of touchdowns this year, finding paydirt 11 times -- tied with Trey McBride for the most touchdowns by a tight end on the year.
That's another Dallas (Goedert) touchdown!
Dallas Goedert x #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/NW9ciEZ4Xg
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 14, 2025
He also leads the Eagles in red-zone target share at 30.6%, a full 4% ahead of their WR1, A.J. Brown. With the Niners allowing the seventh-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, and the Eagles implied for 25 points (third most on the week), I like his chances of scoring here. He's proved to be a dependable target for Jalen Hurts down near the goal line all season.
