RADIO
Dave's Week 13 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 13 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
Every now and then, in this crazy business, you have a week that completely defies all expectations. That was certainly the case for us here in Week 12. We went 8-3 on our regular plays, but the really juicy stuff was hitting on two of our longshot plays. I recommended readers place a wager on Jahmyr Gibbs to finish last Sunday’s games with the most rushing yards at 13-1 odds, and also recommended to sprinkle a bit on Jameis Winston to finish Sunday with the most passing yards at 20-1 odds. Well, sure enough, both of those plays cashed, and those who tailed those bets turned a hefty profit in Week 12.
As fun as that was to watch unfold, it’s now in the past. It’s time to turn the page and focus on this weekend’s slate of games. So with that said, let’s do our best to grind our way to a profitable Week 13.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are some of my favorite player props for Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season.
Editor's Note: The FFPC Playoff Challenge #2 is back with a massive $100,000 grand prize and $203,250 total prize pool, paying down to 100th place. Here's the deal: no salary cap, no draft, no pickups, no subs. Choose 8 players, and as NFL teams get knocked out so will your players, so choose your team wisely. The entries will sell out quickly, and registrations will close on Saturday January 17th at 4:30 pm ET . Don't wait - get your team now and end your fantasy football season with a shot at $100,000! Sign Up Now!
Week 13 Passing Prop Bets
Brock Purdy UNDER 208.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .57 Units to Win .5 Unit
Purdy really struggled against the Carolina Panthers' defense last week. That’s not a good sign for this weekend, as the Browns are one of the better defenses in the NFL. Cleveland ranks fifth in FTN Fantasy’s defensive passing DVOA and only allows 170.7 passing yards per game.
Purdy also struggled against the Cleveland Browns when these two teams met in 2023. He only threw for 125 yards in that game. The 49ers have been a middle-of-the-pack team this year in terms of pass protection. With Myles Garrett on a torrid pace to obliterate the single-season sack record, that could mean bad news for Purdy and the 49ers' passing game.
This is just a bad matchup for the 49ers' offense, and it looks like a spot where Purdy could struggle to push the ball downfield. As a result, I will be fading the San Francisco QB1 this weekend.
I played this number for a full unit at 213.5 earlier in the week. I think the current number is still too high, but I am not comfortable playing it for a full unit.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 209.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
Rodgers will suit up after missing Week 12 with a broken wrist. Even though it was just a hairline fracture to his non-throwing hand, this is an awfully quick turnaround for a 41-year-old quarterback.
Mike Tomlin is no dummy, though, and is fully aware that Rodgers will be less than 100%. Still, he gives Pittsburgh a better chance to win compared to Mason Rudolph. We should expect to see Pittsburgh lean heavily on its ground game here and attack the Bills' run defense, which has been a major weakness all season.
I don’t expect Pittsburgh to ask Rodgers to do much outside of managing the game and making a few throws here and there. So I feel pretty comfortable playing this prop even though this is a low number.
Week 13 Rushing Prop Bets
R.J. Harvey OVER 12.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
Harvey’s rookie season has been highly underwhelming thus far. However, this weekend presents one of his best chances to deliver a strong performance as a rusher.
The Washington Commanders rank 22nd in defensive rushing DVOA and allow 137.5 rushing yards per game. Washington has also allowed the eighth-most explosive rushing yards in the NFL per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
While this is a great spot for Harvey to be efficient on the ground, he has not fully taken over as the Broncos' RB1. Jaleel McLaughlin received some carries in the team’s most recent game back in Week 11, so there is a chance Harvey is still splitting carries this weekend.
It’s for this reason that I prefer to play Harvey through his longest rush prop. I don’t mind playing the over on his yardage total, and I do expect him to receive more work as a rusher in this game. It just feels like his longest rush prop is the safest play on the board.
Look for Harvey to break off one or two long runs and post one of his better games of the year.
Bo Nix to RJ Harvey brings the Broncos closer!
DENvsHOU on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/cVvMnJw3VA
— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2025
Rico Dowdle UNDER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Dowdle has started to cool off after a massive hot streak earlier in the year. Carolina leaned into Bryce Young and the passing game this past week against the San Francisco 49ers, but that approach proved ineffective. The Panthers eventually fell behind, and as a result, Dowdle only received six carries in a 20-9 loss.
Now, Dowdle faces a much tougher opponent in Week 13. The Rams' run defense has been among the best in the league this year. Los Angeles ranks fourth in defensive rushing DVOA and second in PFF’s run defense grade. The Rams have also allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this year, and opposing rushers are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry against their defense.
With Carolina listed as a 10.5-point underdog, they are likely to fall behind early again this weekend. That means Dowdle is at risk of being scripted out of the game.
There are multiple ways we can hit this prop, and I just have a hard time seeing Dowdle having success against this run defense. I would play this prop down to 55.5 for a full unit.
Blake Corum OVER 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .53 Units to Win .5 Units
Corum continues to split carries with Kyren Williams and has clearly carved out a role in the Los Angeles offense. He’s played at least 31% of offensive snaps in four of the last five games and has eclipsed the above line in of his last games, too.
This weekend feels like a perfect time for Corum to eclipse double-digit carries. The Rams now travel to Carolina to face a Panthers team on a short week following a Monday night loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Los Angeles is a double-digit road favorite here. While the Carolina defense has played better in 2025, they could struggle to defend the Rams' potent offense.
I expect the Rams’ offense to have zero issues moving the ball, accrue a large lead early, and then lean on their running game to close out the win. That should ensure plenty of touches for Corum, and I believe he has a shot at double-digit carries in this game.
Week 13 Receiving Prop Bets
Chimere Dike OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .44 Units to Win .4 Units
With Elic Ayomanor and Calvin Ridley out of action last week, Dike functioned as the team's WR1. Even though he had a tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, Dike turned in a respectable 5-44-1 effort on seven targets.
Cam Ward finds Chimere Dike for a touchdown
SEAvsTEN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/CiQTyMIFT0
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2025
Dike gets a better matchup this week. The Jaguars' passing defense has struggled this year, and Jacksonville allows the eighth-most passing yards per game.
Titans quarterback Cameron Ward started to show signs of life last weekend, and this is a good spot for the rookie signal-caller to post another strong game. That would mean good things for Dike and the Tennessee passing offense.
I like Dike to eclipse this total as this is a matchup where he should have success.
Chris Olave OVER 5.5 Receptions (-140) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .7 Units to Win .5 Units
Olave has been targeted 21 times in the Saints’ last two games. He’s posted a 14-174-1 line over that span. Now he gets to face a Dolphins defense that ranks 30th in defensive passing DVOA and 23rd in DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Olave is clearly a favorite target of current Saints’ QB1 Tyler Shough, so we should expect the rookie to continue to look Olave’s direction early and often in this game. The Saints' WR1 also draws a decent matchup in RotoBaller's Week 13 WR/CB matchup chart, so that is another factor working in Olave's favor.
Even though the juice on this prop is a bit high, I think Olave will once again be peppered with targets. This is a good spot for him to blow past this number, so I am okay with the price point here.
Week 13 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Bhayshul Tuten Anytime Touchdown (+175) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.75 Units
After logging a career high 15 touches in Week 11, Tuten took a step backward against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12. Perhaps that was due to an ankle injury he suffered late in the team’s Week 11 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
We’ll see if that’s the case, but this weekend is a great spot for him to find the end zone. Tennessee ranks 28th in defensive rushing DVOA and has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns this year.
With quarterback Trevor Lawrence continuing to struggle with interceptions and inconsistent play, we’ll likely see head coach Liam Coen lean on the team’s ground game to pick up another win. That should mean plenty of touches for Tuten, and I wouldn't be surprised if he eclipses double-digit carries.
In a game that could get out of hand in Jacksonville’s favor, I like taking a shot on Tuten to score at these odds.
Devin Neal Anytime Touchdown (+280) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.8 Units
With Alvin Kamara expected to miss the next few games with a sprained knee, Neal should function as New Orleans’ lead back. Miami’s run defense has been better in recent weeks, but I am still not totally convinced this is suddenly a good run defense, given the overall lack of talent on this defense.
The Saints' offense is not good, and we do have the annoying Taysom Hill factor working against us, but almost 3-1 odds on a starting running back to score a touchdown is tough to ignore. Additionally, I don’t believe Miami should be a six-point favorite over anyone right now, and think New Orleans will be competitive in this game.
So, having said all that, I like taking a shot on Neal to find the end zone and will happily take a near three-unit profit if he does.
Kenneth Gainwell Anytime Touchdown (+240) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win 1.2 Units
Apparently, we love running back touchdown props this week. We listed this prop as a play last weekend, and Gainwell did find the end zone on the ground, only for it to be called back on a penalty. That was a tough beat, but it did show Pittsburgh is willing to split goal-line duties between Jaylen Warren and Gainwell.
This is a good week to take another crack at Gainwell scoring because the Buffalo Bills' run defense has been awful in 2025. Buffalo allows 148.9 rushing yards per game, which is the third-most in the NFL. The Bills have also allowed the second-most total touchdowns to running backs this year, including a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns.
This weakness in Buffalo’s defense lines up well with what the Steelers want to do on offense, and I am expecting a healthy dose of Warren and Gainwell in this game. I think these odds should be closer to +150, so we are getting a good deal on Gainwell again this week.
I like his chances of scoring in a plus matchup here. Hopefully, this time it will not be negated by a penalty, and we can take this ticket to the pay window.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Bhayshul Tuten Most Rushing Yards in TEN vs. JAX (+800) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .2 Units to Win 1.6 Units
R.J. Harvey Most Rushing Yards - Sunday Only (+3500) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 3.5 Units
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play-calling and thus affect props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 13 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Brock Purdy UNDER 208.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Aaron Rodgers UNDER 209.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- R.J. Harvey OVER 12.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Rico Dowdle UNDER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Blake Corum OVER 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Chimere Dike OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Chris Olave OVER 5.5 Receptions (-140) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Bhayshul Tuten Anytime Touchdown (+175) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Devin Neal Anytime Touchdown (+280) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Kenneth Gainwell Anytime Touchdown (+240) FanDuel Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
