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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 13 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 13 of the 2025 fantasy football season. We're close to the fantasy football players, with a large sample of the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 13 sorted alphabetically. There are no teams on bye in Week 13. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded), injured player (red text), and slot coverage (bold text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.
We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows team offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Dallas Cowboys.
The visual below shows offenses from the Denver Broncos to the Las Vegas Raiders.
The visual below shows offenses from the Miami Dolphins to the San Francisco 49ers.
The visual below shows offenses from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Washington Commanders.
Best Projected Week 13 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 13 WR/CB Matchups
Week 13 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Khalil Shakir vs. Brandin Echols
Shakir has been the primary target earner for the Bills' pass catchers among the healthy options. He leads the Bills in target per route rate and first-read target share while being an efficient producer based on his usage. The Steelers' pass defense continues to be shredded, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-8 and the third-highest in Weeks 9-12 to receivers.
They've specifically been more beatable in the slot, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot in Weeks 9-12. That's where Brandin Echols plays most of the time as the Steelers' primary slot cornerback. The Steelers' pass defense plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate while allowing the 22nd-most fantasy points per dropback.
Historically, Shakir has been better against zone coverage, producing 2.31 yards per route run with a 26 percent target per route rate. However, the Steelers' defense allowed the 23rd-most fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage. Specifically, the Steelers deploy Cover 3 at the 14th-highest rate with the fifth-most Cover 1, aligning with them using single-high looks at the sixth-highest percentage.
Shakir boasts a 27 percent target rate and 24.8 percent first-read target share while producing 2.48 yards per route run against single-high coverage, as seen above. Besides Dalton Kincaid's 3.49 yards per route run, Shakir leads the team in other target-earning and production categories versus single-high.
Shakir projects to face Echols, who allows the 15th-most fantasy points per route run and 18th-most yards per route. The coverage data points toward Shakir thriving as the Bills' primary pass catcher. Value Shakir as a WR3 with WR2 upside.
DJ Moore vs. Adoree' Jackson (concussion)
This one might be the riskiest WR/CB matchup upgrade because of the inconsistent usage for the Bears, as they shift to be more run-heavy since their bye week. Since Week 6, the Bears' offense ranks 25th in neutral game script pass rate, as they relied more upon Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift.
Moore ranks second on the team in expected fantasy points per game and first-read target share behind Rome Odunze. He had a spike week against the Steelers in Week 12 after reeling in five receptions for 64 yards and two scores on seven targets. Furthermore, the matchup to attack against the Eagles involves the receiver matched up against Adoree' Jackson, who left with a concussion in Week 12. Jackson was a full participant during their walkthrough on Tuesday since they play on Friday.
The Eagles' pass defense tends to mix in man (No. 14) and zone coverages (No. 21) at a relatively even rate. They've been allowing the 21st-most fantasy points per dropback while using man and the 15th-most versus zone. The Eagles have been more susceptible when using single-high coverage, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per dropback. However, they use single-high looks at the 18th-highest percentage.
The coverage data looks somewhat ugly for Moore, who boasts an above-average Average Separation Score against man coverage. However, Moore struggles to earn targets at a high rate and produce versus man and zone. Luther Burden III has been the new per-route king, who produces at a high rate with limited usage, though we've seen a slight uptick in routes over the past two games.
Against single-high coverages, Odunze leads the team in target rate and first-read target share, yet the third-most yards per route run among the Bears' pass catchers, as seen above. Odunze trails Burden (3.40) and Colston Loveland (2.09) in yards per route run against single-high looks. Unfortunately, Moore's usage and production have been somewhat awful versus single-high, so that reminds us to be cautious.
Jackson allows the seventh-most fantasy points per route run and the fifth-highest yards per route run. Since Quinyon Mitchell probably covers Odunze, Moore should have a friendlier matchup in Week 13.
Troy Franklin vs. Antonio Hamilton Sr.
The Commanders' secondary has been the worst graded team via the coverage data, partly because they've been hit by injuries to Trey Amos, Marshon Lattimore, and Mike Sainristil, taking a step backward. Franklin has overtaken Courtland Sutton as the Broncos' WR1.
Franklin leads the Broncos in target rate, expected fantasy points, and air yards share while barely edging Sutton in first-read target share. Sometimes teams adjusted their play calling based on personnel. Other times, teams will stick to their trends, regardless of personnel. The latter seems to be the case with the Commanders' pass defense.
The Commanders deploy man coverage at the ninth-highest rate while giving up the 16th-most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, they allow the most fantasy points per dropback while using zone coverage (No. 26). Like other man-heavy defenses, the Commanders like deploying single-high looks at the ninth-highest rate while opposing offenses shred them for the most fantasy points per dropback.
Sutton remains the Broncos' best weapon against man coverage, besides Marvin Mims Jr., who leads the team with 4.09 yards per route run. Unfortunately, it's hard to predict the usage and boom performances for Mims because the passing offense filters through Franklin and Sutton. However, Franklin boasts a team-high 37 percent target rate, with an above-average Average Separation Score versus man coverage.
The visual above shows the Broncos' top pass catchers against single-high coverage. Franklin rocks a team-high 46.3 percent air yards share and 28 percent target rate versus single-high looks. He has a similar yards per route run (2.12) and first-read target share (25.5 percent), compared to Sutton (2.23 yards per route run and 26.9 percent first-read target share).
Franklin's air yards share might be something to monitor because the Commanders' pass defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback on deep passes of 20 or more yards downfield. One concern might involve the potential game script because the Broncos project as 6.5-point favorites heading into Week 13 against the Commanders.
Week 13 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Jameson Williams vs. Carrington Valentine
It's not ideal, but there will be variance in fantasy production and usage to some extent in a given week. Yes, it's frustrating when a player like Williams is producing well, then tosses up a zero. That's especially true because the Giants' defense deployed tons of man coverage, where Williams tends to thrive.
From Weeks 9-11, Williams led the Lions with 20.1 PPR/G, yet only 10.8 expected fantasy points per game, as seen in the visual above. The usage and expected metrics suggested Williams might regress, though it's hard to sit or expect a zero after elite production as a WR1 in Weeks 9-11.
On the season, Williams has been significantly behind Amon-Ra St. Brown in first-read target share, target rate, air yards share, yards per route run, and expected fantasy points. Besides Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions' offense runs through St. Brown, with Williams seeing an uptick in his horizontally breaking routes with Dan Campbell taking over play-calling duties.
The Packers' pass defense deploys zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate while allowing the 19th-most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, the Packers hardly use man coverage (No. 27), yet give up the fewest fantasy points per dropback. Williams typically wins against man coverage, with 2.59 yards per route run and a 21 percent target rate.
The Packers' pass defense allows the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback when using single-high and the third-fewest while deploying two-high coverages. We would expect the Packers to use more two-high and zone coverage against the Lions since Williams tends to thrive versus man and single-high.
The visual above shows the Lions' pass catchers against single-high coverages in 2025. St. Brown leads the team in target rate (29 percent) and yards per route run (2.44), with Williams trailing him (19 percent, 2.15 yards per route run) against single-high.
However, Williams produced 4.31 yards per route run against single high with a 20 percent target rate in Weeks 9-11, showing us the ceiling-type outcomes. When we filter by two-high coverages, the data shifts toward St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, though LaPorta won't play due to an injury. Meanwhile, Williams has a 12 percent target rate and 1.12 yards per route run versus two-high looks, as seen below.
The Packers' secondary ranks second in team coverage grades, behind the Rams. Carrington Valentine projects to face Williams on Thanksgiving. Valentine allows the 36th-fewest fantasy points per route run and the 13th-fewest yards per route run. Williams can win a week with one or two splash plays, but he faces a tough matchup in Week 13.
Josh Downs vs. Myles Bryant
The Texans' secondary ranks sixth in team coverage grades and remains one of the toughest matchups for opposing pass catchers. Besides Shakir's outlier performance in Week 12, the Texans' pass defense allowed 8.5 fantasy points to opposing slot receivers over the past handful of weeks. Downs remains one of the per-route players who tend to have their usage and production fluctuate since he only runs a route on 59 percent of the team's dropbacks.
Downs leads the Colts in target per route rate (25 percent), yet Alec Pierce, Tyler Warren, and Michael Pittman Jr. have been the team's first-read target around 22-24 percent of the time. The Texans' pass defense uses zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate while allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Furthermore, the Texans allow the fifth-lowest fantasy points per dropback when using man coverage.
Warren and Pierce lead the team with over 2.00 yards per route run against zone coverage, with Downs being the fourth-best option. When facing man coverage, Downs leads the team in target per route rate (30 percent), yet trails Pierce (2.39) and Pittman (1.66) in yards per route run.
To continue the trend, the Texans use Cover 3 at the 11th-highest rate while using Cover 4 at the fourth-highest percentage. Warren leads the team with a 30 percent target rate and 3.81 yards per route run against Cover 3. Meanwhile, Pierce trails close behind with a 23 percent target rate and 3.25 yards per route run when facing Cover 3, as seen below. That makes sense since Cover 3 can involve single-high looks, where Pierce typically thrives.
Unfortunately, Downs tends to be the third or fourth option against Cover 3, garnering a 20 percent target rate and producing 1.63 yards per route run. Interestingly, Downs rocks a 28 percent target rate and 1.61 yards per route run against Cover 4. However, Warren dominates the targets (34 percent) and yards per route run (3.06) versus Cover 4.
Downs projects to face Myles Bryant, a safety who covers the slot for the Texans. Bryant allows the 19th-lowest fantasy points per route and the second-fewest yards per route run. Could Downs have a spike game like Shakir against the Texans? Possibly, but the difference involves Shakir being the top option, compared to Downs as the third or fourth one in their respective offenses.
Fantasy managers might be better off streaming John Metchie as a WR4 instead of Downs in Week 13.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Renardo Green
Jeudy has been producing seven fantasy points per game, while underproducing his expected fantasy points by nearly six points (12.8). Over the past two weeks, Jeudy has seen the two highest first-read target shares in 2025, with the most recent one being with Shedeur Sanders.
Sanders averaged 8.0 air yards per attempt (No. 13) in Week 12, significantly higher than Dillon Gabriel's 5.9 on the season, ranking last and tying with Aaron Rodgers. That's notable because Gabriel tended to attempt quick passes in the short areas of the field, typically favoring Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku. However, Sanders might be willing to air it out, potentially supporting their receivers.
Jeudy leads the Browns in air yards share (38.1 percent), first-read targets (26.5 percent), and expected fantasy points (12.8). Fannin bests Jeudy in target per route rate, as the second-best Browns' pass catcher on the season. Jeudy faces a 49ers' pass defense that deploys zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate while giving up the 14th-most fantasy points per dropback.
Dylan Sampson (2.27), Fannin (1.99), and Njoku (1.48) lead the Browns' pass catchers in yards per route run against zone coverage while garnering a target on more than 20 percent of their routes. Jeudy averages a brutal 0.86 yards per route run against zone while garnering a 16 percent target rate. Typically, Jeudy has been better versus man coverage, and the advanced metrics support that.
Specifically, the 49ers' pass defense likes to use single-high looks at the 11th-highest rate. However, they've been allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per dropback when using single-high coverages. Theoretically, Jeudy should produce well against single-high looks, especially via his usage.
Jeudy leads the Browns' pass catchers in first-read targets (30.1 percent) and sits second in target per route rate (24 percent) against single-high coverages. The usage suggests Jeudy's production should regress in his favor. However, it's a matter of when, not if, while the team context matters for Jeudy.
The 49ers' secondary ranks 23rd in team coverage grades, with Renardo Green being their best corner. Green allows the 13th-fewest fantasy points per route and the fourth-lowest yards per route run. Besides the Vikings (14.5) and Raiders (15.5), the Browns project for the third-lowest implied team total (16.5). There's some hope in Jeudy's profile if Sanders continues to air it out to him as the Browns' primary pass catcher.
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