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Kyle Larson has never had much prowess on drafting tracks. Although he's gotten a little better on them lately, he's still never won at one and he's only led 36 laps in his career at Daytona (although he might have won the 2017 Daytona 500 if his fuel strategy had played out better). Although he was the best driver in the Cup Series all of last year and for the first third of this year, he's really fallen off in general with many mediocre runs and a litany of self-spins in recent months, which means he is likely to finish worse than any model will predict. Coupling that with his high $9,500 salary and his strong third-place starting position and Larson feels like he's almost a must to avoid since he will almost certainly lose positions from his starting position and won't lead enough laps to come even close to compensating for that.--Sean Wrona - RotoBaller
Source: Racing Reference
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