Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates: Expected Stat Underperformers - The Tortured No Hits Department

May 25, 2025

Kevin's fantasy baseball buy-lows, sleepers and trade candidates to target. These hitters have been unlucky and are underperforming their expected stats.

"I think some things I never say, like, 'Who uses Torpedo Bats anyway?'"

Baseball can be a fickle beast. You can hit the ball perfectly on the barrel, and it's hit right at a defender and is caught. You can check swing and hit a dribbler a few feet in front of home plate and get a hit.

Let's take a look at a few players who have been on the wrong side of these situations more often than not this season. These unlucky guys are off to slow starts on the surface but are greatly underperforming their expected stats. If the manager in your league is getting frustrated with them, it's the perfect time to buy low.

Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals

A 35-year-old catcher having the worst offensive season of his career? Maybe he's just washed. Salvy is hitting .223 with only three homers and a 63 WRC+ this season. He has been awful, and despite being selected as a top-5 catcher in many drafts, many fantasy managers are probably looking for other options behind the plate.

However, Salvy has been the unluckiest hitter in baseball so far this season. He has the most considerable negative difference between his wOBA and xwOBA, a difference of 94 points (.265 wOBA vs. .359 xwOBA). His BA is also 69 points lower than his xBA, and his SLG is 175 points lower than his xSLG.

Taking a look at his Savant page, it looks just like you'd expect a Perez Savant page to look. He has a strikeout rate in the low 20s, a very low walk rate, and still has solid quality of contact metrics.

At this point, it's unlikely Salvy will be a profit at his top-5 catcher draft cost. However, he's bound for some positive regression soon. When that hits, he'll likely still be a top 10 catcher for the rest of the season. If you're struggling for production at catcher or in a two-catcher league, I'd be trying to acquire him.

Yordan Alvarez, OF/DH, Houston Astros

There might not be a better buy-low option in fantasy baseball right now than Yordan Alvarez. He's currently on the injured list (hand inflammation), and he's off to a very slow start to the season. His manager in your league might be panicking a bit and willing to deal him to get more active production.

While the Astros are not the most trustworthy organization when it comes to reporting on the timelines of their injured players (see Kyle Tucker last season), a hand injury should not keep Alvarez out too much longer or have a long-term impact on his production.

Regarding Yordan's production, it's been really bad so far. He has a career-low 78 WRC+, but it's safe to assume this won't last, as his career low WRC+ was 137 coming into this season, and he has a 162 WRC+ for his entire career.

He's second behind Salvy in terms of players with the largest negative gap between their wOBA and xwOBA (.278 wOBA vs. .364 xwOBA). He's underperforming his xSLG by 155 points. While he's only underperforming his xBA by 36 points, he has a career low .222 BABIP. He's never had a BABIP below .300 in his career.

Looking at Yordan's Savant page, it's not as red as it usually is (bright red everywhere), but it's still way too red for a player putting up the numbers he is so far this season. He still has an elite approach at the plate, striking out 17.4 percent of the time while walking 13.2 percent of the time. He still hits the ball very hard with a 95th percentile average EV.

While we might not get a vintage Yordan season, bad Alvarez is still better than the vast majority of the hitters in the league. Bad times don't last for elite talents who are still putting up strong plate approach and quality of contact metrics.

Juan Soto, OF, New York Mets

"No one is selling low on Juan Soto. He was a first-round pick." It feels like there have been only negative narratives around Juan Soto, or "Juan Suck-o," in the first month and a half of the season.

When you sign a $765 million contract in the offseason, everything you do gets scrutinized. In the early going, he has not been clutch in a few late-game situations, and Mets and Yankees fans have both been vocal about his "struggles."

Many fantasy players have also pointed out that Soto doesn't get the benefit this season of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and he doesn't get to hit in front of Aaron Judge.

Despite all of the negative narratives, Soto has still been Soto. He has the fourth-highest xwOBA in the league behind only Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Schwarber. His wOBA is 80 points lower than his xwOBA (.354 wOBA vs. .434 xwOBA). He's also underperforming his xBA by 60 points and his xSLG by 156 points.

Looking under the hood, Soto has a bright red savant page. He's still hitting the ball very hard and is not pressing at the plate by swinging at bad pitches. The famous Soto plate discipline is still evident as he's walking more than he's striking out this season.

While a little disappointing, Soto isn't having a horrible start to the fantasy season. He still has eight HRs and five SBs. The .243 BA and career low 129 WRC+ leave a bit to be desired but he's due for some positive regression, especially given his .259 BABIP.

If the Soto manager in your league is frustrating with his slow start and buying into some of the anti-Soto narratives, look to buy low on him. He should still provide first two round value with mid-to-high 30's HRs, double-digit steals, a solid batting average, and lots of runs and RBIs in the Mets lineup.

Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays

At the beginning of the season, I had a bold prediction that Brandon Lowe would be a top-5 fantasy second baseman. That prediction is not looking great so far. While the eight HRs he's given you so far are decent, it has come with a career low .224 BA and 91 WRC+.

Like the above players, Lowe is greatly underperforming his expected stats. There's a 52-point difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (.293 wOBA vs. .345 xwOBA). He's also underperforming his xBA by 44 points and his xSLG by 101 points.

While his strikeout rate is pretty high, it's not much higher than it has been throughout his career, and it hasn't stopped him from being one of the best-hitting second basemen in the league in the past. His quality of contact metrics is all solid, and he's hitting the ball harder than he has in many of his previous seasons.

Lowe has never had a WRC+ below 100 in his career, and I don't expect that to change, especially as he's hitting in the best home ballpark of his career.

His lefty swing is perfectly suited for Steinbrenner Field, and he's making a cognizant effort to pull the ball more as he has a career-high pull rate of 52.1 percent. With his strong quality of contact metrics, we can expect him to continue to hit a lot of HRs, and his ratios should improve as he gets some positive expected stat regression.

In deeper leagues, I'd be looking to buy low on Lowe as he can provide a ton of power upside at the second base position. In some shallow leagues, he might be on waivers, and he's a worthwhile pickup if you're looking for a power-hitting middle infielder.

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