Fantasy Football Breakouts: Running Back Sleepers For 2025

John takes an early look at which NFL running backs will have breakout seasons in 2025. Which RBs are sneaky RB1 candidates in 2025 for fantasy football?

The running back position is in constant flux in Dynasty fantasy football, as depth charts are constantly shuffled around, teams often decide to move on from productive players and replace them with cheaper or younger options, and players have their first good seasons in their careers.

We're mostly concerned with that last point -- RBs who are set to have big seasons in 2025. There are often distinct signs you can read about a player's situation (and their talent) that are excellent leading indicators of a big upcoming season.

Let's break down three running backs that are likely set for much bigger seasons in 2025.

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Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins

While Wright had a lackluster rookie season, there were a lot of factors at play that limited his upside. A crucial tactic for evaluating how players will perform in subsequent years is evaluating the totality of their situations from a 20,000-foot view, setting aside any bitterness or disappointment you may feel.

The Dolphins offense was a shell of its former self in 2024. The injury to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa rendered the entire offense completely ineffective for four games. The offensive line took a big step back, run-blocking wise, when guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams left the team after 2023.

jaylen wright's two carries vs. the cardinals pic.twitter.com/W0kSnMUiiP

— josh houtz (@houtz) October 30, 2024

A few of the offensive linemen deserve a good degree of criticism for their poor play last season. Miami does need some upgrades at the guard position, and with left tackle Terron Armstead seemingly likely to retire, they'll have to pick up someone else as well, though he's a more skilled pass-protector than he is in the run game.

Wright was viewed as raw coming out of college, and that assessment was accurate. Given extra time to develop, he could come along nicely. It also didn't help that RB Raheem Mostert was still on the team last year, which made sense, given his monster 2023 season. But he didn't replicate anything like that in 2024 and was subsequently released.

Mike McDaniel saw Jaylen Wright do this early on and decided to not give him a single touch the rest of the game pic.twitter.com/WV6YGkljnG

— FinsCentral (@FinsCentral) September 23, 2024

Wright is a freak athlete, standing at 5-foot-10 and weighing 210 pounds, yet running a 4.38-second 40-yard-dash. He averaged a ridiculous 7.4 yards per carry in his final season at Tennessee against SEC defenses. And if he occupies even a decent portion of the role Mostert had in 2023, he could have a big year.

A committee backfield is likely what Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel wants to implement, as we saw him do in 2023. Obviously, if Wright can't develop well, then lead back De'Von Achane will continue to take the vast majority of the workload.

But Achane's game is limited by his size, as he weighs at least 20 pounds less than Wright. The goal-line carries will probably go to Wright. And in short-yardage scenarios, the Dolphins didn't have a ton of success when opposing defenses stacked the box and line of scrimmage with defenders. That's where Wright's size can help. I have a feeling we'll see a lot more of the Tennessee product this upcoming season.

Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

The arrival of the new Jaguars head coach, Liam Coen, should work wonders for the Jaguars' run game. Last season, due mainly to poor coaching, the team as a whole averaged just 4.2 yards per carry, and while Bigsby had a stretch of impressive games, he eventually faltered, likely through no fault of his own.

Same but with Tank Bigsby pic.twitter.com/N7LC0i4eLT

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) October 14, 2024

I'm of the school of thought (if there is a school of thought) that many players actually break out in seasons that aren't considered breakout seasons because their breaking out is disrupted into becoming technically not really breaking out because of circumstances that are no fault of their own. Being on a bad offense decimated by injuries is a perfectly acceptable reason why a player's production might fall off markedly.

The Jaguars ranked 25th out of 32 teams in ESPN's Run Block Win Rate, which measures an entire team's offensive line's ability to make and hang on to their run blocks long enough to be ineffective. It wasn't a surprise that a team with a middling OL and very bad coaching wasn't very good in this area.

I firmly believe that Coen completely changes that. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line took a huge step forward under his leadership, and while they deserve credit for their play, it seems that Coen's schemes elevated their ability to succeed. Mediocre position groups can be coached up to play well by elite offensive minds.

This is some FILTH from Liam Coen

Blast Motion to Kickout the Edge + Influence Wham on the Nose 🥵 pic.twitter.com/gTRLV8dYM5

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) December 2, 2024

Bigsby, who was a yards-after-contact monster for portions of 2024, shouldn't have to deal with as many head-on, tough-to-break tackle attempts, which could help him utilize his skillset even more. He'll be able to gain more yards before contact on the average play, affording him more opportunities to thwart less "sure" tackle attempts.

A rising tide lifts all boats, so fellow Jags RB Travis Etienne Jr. should have a bounce-back year of his own. ETN is the better pass-catcher, so I wouldn't think Bigsby will have much receiving upside in the new offense.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers

Last season, Packers RB Josh Jacobs was the unquestioned bell-cow back of his team's offense, finishing as the RB6 overall in fantasy football after totaling 344 touches, 1,671 yards from scrimmage, and 16 total touchdowns. I'm not confident he'll get as much volume in 2025 as he did in 2024, especially if Lloyd stays healthy, though that's a big question mark.

Obviously, Lloyd missing his entire rookie season due to a variety of injuries doesn't inspire confidence in his availability. But I'm more interested in Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur's clear insistence on using a committee approach to his backfield in years past. Even if the talent level of his two backs was significantly different, he'd still feed a ton of carries to the backup.

I'm not convinced that the Packers won't have more of a committee backfield in 2025. They always did (before 2024) under Matt LaFleur, even though AJ Dillon sucks. 2 UDFAs and Jacobs were the only healthy RBs in 2024. And Aaron Jones >>> Dillon. pic.twitter.com/avg43eslFm

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 6, 2025

Much to the frustration of fantasy managers of RB Aaron Jones, LaFleur let backup A.J. Dillon handle a large workload. Many have excused this away as LaFleur only giving Dillon touches because Jones was so injury prone, but Jones played 17 games in 2022, so that doesn't hold. The above stats are from the 2022 season.

Green Bay spend a third-round pick on Lloyd. There have been many in the community that have scoffed at the idea of him getting any volume, because the undrafted free agent backs, Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks, were actually really great, but Jacobs was just so earth-shatteringly elite and incredible, which is why he got all the volume.

I'm not on board with the idea that the Packers would spend significant draft capital on a back they thought was worse than their UDFAs. Nor do I believe that Jacobs' 4.42 yards per carry demands an immediate redux of his huge workload from 2024.

Nor do I believe that Lloyd's seven touches in just 14 percent of the snaps in Week 2 and the Packers' coaches ravings about Lloyd's talent mean they'll just forget about him and give him almost no volume in 2025. Quite the opposite.

MarShawn Lloyd - PFF Grades/Stats - P5 RBs

⚔️ #1 in Rushing
⚔️ #2 in Run Block
⚔️ #7 in Yards After Contact per Attempt
⚔️ #7 in 10+ yard runs
⚔️ #2 in Designed Run Plays of 15+ yards #FightOn✌🏻 pic.twitter.com/FwntAgA0ty

— Arrogant Nation✌🏻 (@FightOnRusty) September 27, 2023

If he had played significant snaps all season and just been garbage, that would be a different story. Instead, I imagine a split much closer to the Jones/Dillon splits of old will be what MLF implements, and it will be much to the chagrin of Jacobs fantasy managers.

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