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Free daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for today's slate on DraftKings, FanDuel. Use Kevin's MLB DFS expert picks to build winning DFS lineups on August 4, 2024.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another loaded MLB DFS slate. We're now beyond the trade deadline and staring down the final two months of the regular season. Let's lock in and take down this enticing nine-game slate!
We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix is relatively thin today, featuring few aces alongside uncertain midrange and punt plays, undoubtedly leading to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 8/4/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Skenes vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($10.3K DK, $11.3K FD)
It should surprise nobody that Paul Skenes is the preferred pitching option on this slate. Through 13 starts, the rookie sports an outstanding 2.57 xERA and a 2.59 xFIP. Skenes has been virtually untouchable, limiting opposing hitters to a .200 xBA and a 6.5% barrel rate. His impressive pitching profile is headlined by a tremendous 33.3% strikeout rate alongside a 31.8% chase rate and a 28.5% whiff rate. Skenes has yet to surrender more than three runs in any outing and is averaging nearly eight strikeouts per start. If you can work his steep price tag into your, it will be worthwhile. Skenes is the top floor and ceiling play available.
Paul Skenes plays baseball today.#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/QMxvYHKhPR
— SkenesMuse (@PaulSkenesMuse) August 4, 2024
The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from a dream matchup for Skenes. They lead the majors scoring nearly 5.2 runs per game overall. That said, the Diamondbacks do their best work against left-handed pitching. Against right-handed pitching, they sport a middling 108 wRC+. Further, Arizona is currently without Christian Walker, one of their most dangerous hitters. This matchup offers nothing that should scare us from rostering Skenes.
Nick Pivetta vs. Texas Rangers ($8.5K DK, $9.7K FD)
If you're looking for a discount alternative to Paul Skenes, Nick Pivetta is capable of a similar ceiling, albeit with higher risk. Across 17 starts, Pivetta owns a strong 3.53 xERA and a 3.31 xFIP. The 9.6% barrel rate he's allowed illustrates where things can go wrong, but he generally does a great job at limiting baserunners with a fantastic .296 xwOBA. Most importantly, Pivetta strikes out batters at an elite 30% clip, giving him an upside comparable to that of Skenes.
Unlike Skenes, Pivetta draws a favorable matchup today with the Texas Rangers today. Despite operating one of baseball's most dangerous offenses in 2023, the Rangers are scoring an underwhelming 4.2 runs per game this season. Their struggles are particularly pronounced against right-handed pitching, generating a weak 89 wRC+ alongside a .297 wOBA and a .141 ISO.
Also Consider: Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Simeon Woods Richardson
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Royce Lewis - 3B, MIN vs. Chris Flexen ($5.3K DK, $4.2K FD)
A healthy Royce Lewis ranks among the most dangerous hitters in baseball. Through 32 games played this season, he boasts a fantastic 1.012 OPS with 12 home runs. Lewis's success in 2024 includes a tremendous .586 xSLG, 16.1% barrel rate, and a .388 xwOBA. He is not cheap to roster, but there is an argument to be made that he is underpriced.
Chris Flexen will be a preferred pitcher to target on this slate. Over 23 appearances this season, he sports a weak 4.82 xERA and a 5.19 xFIP. Flexen has been unable to miss bats, generating just a 16.4% strikeout rate and a 21.6% whiff rate. He has also surrendered a generous .454 xSLG, part of a .451 career mark.
Brandon Lowe - 2B, TB vs. Spencer Arrighetti ($4.2K DK, $3.2K FD)
Brandon Lowe is live for a home run today. The 30-year-old sports a strong .862 OPS on the season with 12 home runs and a 143 wRC+. While his strikeout rate does limit his ability to hit for average, Lowe's results are very worthwhile when he does put the ball in play. His batted-ball profile includes a .510 xSLG, 15.1% barrel rate, and a 43.8% hard-hit rate.
Spencer Arrighetti's advanced stats suggest his horrible 5.58 ERA is somewhat unlucky, but he still profiles as only an average-at-best pitcher. Among Arrighetti's issues during his rookie campaign is surrendering power to left-handed hitters, who are slugging .455 against him.
Coby Mayo - 3B, BAL vs. Gavin Williams ($2.3K DK, $2K FD)
Coby Mayo's price won't stay in this punt-play price range for long. His MLB career is only two games deep, but the 22-year-old ranks as the No. 15 overall prospect in baseball. Mayo produced a 1.003 OPS with 23 home runs across 81 games played in the minor leagues this season, illustrating his prolific upside.
On the surface, Gavin Williams' 3.72 ERA through six starts looks great. However, the advanced stats tell a remarkably different story. Williams sports a mediocre 5.02 xERA, consisting of a .280 xBA, .442 xSLG, 45.8% hard-hit rate, and a 91.1 MPH average exit velocity. We won't be blindsided if Williams gets touched up by this Baltimore Orioles offense today.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez - OF, HOU vs. Tyler Alexander ($5.6K DK, $3.8K FD)
Deciding to roster Yordan Alvarez never requires a lot of thought. So far in 2024, he's slashing a predictably outstanding .298/.380/.527 with 20 home runs and a 150 wRC+. His dominance at the plate includes a .586 xSLG, 13.9% barrel rate, 46.9% hard-hit rate, and a 92.8 MPH average exit velocity. There are no bad matchups for Alvarez.
Tyler Alexander is expected to be the bulk reliever for the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. In 13 appearances this season, he has a weak 4.92 xERA and a 4.37 xFIP. The reasoning behind targeting Alexander is simple: he gets hit hard. Alexander has surrendered a .484 xSLG and a 10.7% barrel rate.
Jorge Soler - OF, ATL vs. Edward Cabrera ($4.5K DK, $3.4K FD)
It was a slow start to the season for Jorge Soler, but he has hit his stride lately. The 32-year-old is slashing .306/.452/.490 with a 173 wRC+ in the second half. His power-hitting ability is well-known at this stage of his career and it appears Soler is finally starting to resemble the guy who hit 36 home runs in 2023.
Jorge Soler hit this one 478 feet. That’s the longest home run by anyone of the 2024 season pic.twitter.com/VRVWGFuJPU
— Shayna Rubin (@ShaynaRubin) July 21, 2024
Despite excellent strikeout stuff, Edward Cabrera ranks among the most volatile pitchers on this slate. He carries an awful 6.65 ERA through 10 starts this season. While the advanced metrics suggest Cabrera has been deserving better results, they still make it clear why Cabrera can get lit up. Opposing hitters have generated a .448 xSLG, 11.7% barrel rate, and a generous 47.7% hard-hit rate.
Trevor Larnach - OF, MIN vs. Chris Flexen ($3.7K DK, $2.6K FD)
Trevor Larnach is another great option in the Minnesota Twins stack at an affordable price. He sports a .755 OPS on the season with 11 home runs and a 114 wRC+. While his surface stats aren't spectacular, his underlying metrics paint the picture of a hitter due for positive regression. Larnach's impressive batted-ball metrics include a .498 xSLG, 91.7 MPH average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, and a 43.1% hard-hit rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Minnesota Twins vs. Chris Flexen
- Favorite Plays: Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach
2. Houston Astros vs. Tyler Alexander
- Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
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