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Rick Lucks makes 10 Bold Predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Baseball season, including ones for Seth Lugo, Blake Snell, and Tyler O'Neill.
Eric Cross kicked off our 2024 fantasy baseball bold predictions series, and now I'm going to build on that momentum and share 10 bold predictions of my own. As a reminder, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes but long shots with a purpose.
My predictions in particular all do one of two things. If a player has an early ADP, I'll call out why he's too expensive. If a player seems to be an afterthought in fantasy, I'll explain why he deserves more attention.
Without further ado, let's get started!
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Rick Lucks' 10 Bold Predictions for 2024
1. Shota Imanaga Outearns Yoshinobu Yamamoto
This prediction seems insane at first glance. Yamamoto has an ADP of 32.27, while Imanaga has an ADP of 188. Yamamoto pitches for the Dodgers, giving him one of the best team contexts in baseball. Imanaga pitches for the Cubs, a decent team but nowhere near the Dodgers in quality. Yamamoto is also younger at age 25 to Imanaga's 30.
Despite all of that, projection systems see the two arms similarly. Here are Yamamoto's projections:
And Imanaga's:
Their ERA, K/9, and BB/9 are comparable if you exclude THE BAT as an outlier. We know the Dodgers plan on using a six-man rotation while the Cubs don't, so Imanaga should get more starts and an innings advantage. If they're performing similarly on a per-inning basis, the additional innings give Imanaga the edge.
Tommy Hottovy is impressed with Shota Imanaga.
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) February 15, 2024
Notably, this is a pro-Imanaga prediction, not an anti-Yamamoto one. Both arms should deliver for fantasy managers in 2024, but Imanaga is the more attractive option based on his price.
2. Yuki Matsui Records at Least 30 Saves
This prediction is predicated on two factors. First, Matsui is a better pitcher than you think he is. He's projected for a 30 K% by the ATC and Steamer projection systems, with an ERA in the mid-3s. Matsui also pitched in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and looked good against MLB hitters as Japan claimed the championship.
Second, Matsui's major competition is Robert Suarez. Suarez struggled with injuries last year and posted a 4.23 ERA with a 22.2 K% over 27 2/3 IP. Those numbers don't exactly scream "closer!" do they? He was better in 2022 with a 2.27 ERA and 31.9 K% in 47 2/3 IP, but his 11 BB% was high, and his 11.9 SwStr% didn't really support the elite strikeout totals. He also allowed a huge homer to Bryce Harper in the postseason that year.
The Padres haven't committed to a closer at the time of writing, and both Matsui and Suarez are consistently mentioned as candidates. If it's an open competition, Matsui should win and rack up saves all season.
3. Tyler O'Neill Goes 25/25 with at Least a .260 Batting Average
Tyler O'Neill didn't have a great 2023, slashing .231/.312/.403 with nine homers and five steals over 266 PAs. Injuries cost him some time, but the Cardinals also benched O'Neill regularly when healthy. It prevented him from getting into a rhythm and showing what he could do.
O'Neill always hit the ball hard and that didn't change last season with a max exit velocity of 111.4 mph, 94.3 mph of average airborne exit velocity, and a 12.3% rate of Brls/BBE. He also set career bests in a variety of plate discipline metrics: 28.5% chase rate, 11.2 SwStr%, 87.1 Z-Contact%, 10.5 BB%, and 25.2 K%.
Boston acquired O'Neill to play, so he should receive full-time PAs with the Red Sox. Fenway Park is also a great place for right-handed hitters looking to improve their average. From 2021-2023, Fenway has the fourth-highest Statcast park factor for RHB at 106. It's neutral for HRs, but no park holds O'Neill when he gets one.
Instead, Fenway inflates hits with a park factor of 109, singles with a 107, and doubles with a 119. All three figures beat Busch Stadium (102, 107, 101, respectively), so O'Neill should enjoy his new digs.
I don’t think Sox fans understand how electric Tyler O’Neill can be when healthy.
This is a Gold Glove caliber outfielder with a good arm, plus-plus speed and pop in the bat.
That doesn’t come around often, nor for the price we acquired him for.pic.twitter.com/PtZmbl6EbF
— G.G. (@ggeiss_mlb) February 17, 2024
Between his improved plate discipline and a more friendly home park, O'Neill's average is due for a dramatic increase. The higher OBP should result in more SB attempts, and nobody questions O'Neill's raw pop. This should be one of the better moves of the offseason.
4. Elly De La Cruz Records More PAs for Louisville than Cincinnati
Elly De La Cruz is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy baseball this season. His proponents argue his unique blend of power and speed gives him limitless fantasy upside, while detractors point to an awful plate approach that led to an 8.2 BB% and 33.7 K% last season. Both sides can find evidence in his 2023 season, where he hit an underwhelming .235/.300/.410 with an electrifying 13 HRs and 35 SB.
De La Cruz's underlying plate discipline metrics weren't that bad, so banking on at least some improvement makes sense. The issue arises when you discover that plate discipline wasn't his only fatal flaw last year. He murdered the ball with a max exit velocity of 119.2 mph and an average airborne EV of 95.2 mph, but his rate of Brls/BBE was only 8.5%.
The reason? De La Cruz posted a microscopic 21.8 FB% last year, roughly half of what fantasy managers want to see from a slugger. He only managed a 29.9% rate at Triple-A last season, so it wasn't a small sample size fluke. Adding loft is possible, of course, but it usually accompanies at least a short-term increase in strikeouts. De La Cruz can't afford that.
De La Cruz is too talented to be relegated to the bench, and the Reds have designs for contending in a weak NL Central. If De La Cruz struggles, the Reds won't hesitate to send him back to Triple-A (Louisville) for everyday playing time while their other young guns handle things in Cincinnati.
De La Cruz has an ADP of 44.7, and that's way too high for a guy who needs to dramatically alter his game to approach his admittedly infinite upside.
5. Blake Snell Posts an ERA of 5.00 or Higher
Blake Snell recently signed the San Francisco Giants in March. His 2.25 ERA over 180 IP looks shiny, but his underlying 3.62 xFIP and 3.77 xERA suggest he was ridiculously fortunate. It was also just the second time Snell reached 180 IP in his career, so you cannot rely on his volume.
Most concerningly, Snell set career worsts in Zone% (32.6) and BB% (13.3) in his Cy Young season. He claims that he did it on purpose, which is understandable, considering he's angling for a big contract. Still, putting people on base for free is not a strategy for pitching success.
The best teams are passing on Snell, and he can't take a pillow contract in hopes of doing better in 2024 than in 2023, so Snell will likely sign a big deal with a relatively bad team. He'll also sign late, which could harm his pre-season preparation, and his luck is likely to take a turn for the worse. Add in the "intentional" walks, and Snell seems poised for the worst season of his big league career in 2024.
6. Ryan Noda Posts an OBP of at Least .400
Ryan Noda had a great 2023 for a Rule 5 pick, slashing .229/.364/.406 with 16 HR in 495 PAs. His carrying skill as a minor leaguer was a tremendous eye, and it immediately translated to the big leagues with a 22.3% chase rate and 15.6 BB% in the Show. The now 28-year-old also has a line drive swing, so he should be able to maintain his 23 LD% and keep his .347 BABIP high.
As impressive as Noda was, he did not post an OBP of .400. The reason why could have been a fractured jaw that caused him to miss 27 games and return to action before he could eat solid food, likely contributing to his September swoon (.214/.310/.378 with a 40.7 K%). With proper nutrition and a year of MLB experience, Noda is poised to let his talents shine.
Rookies in 2023 that exceeded a 10% BRL, 90 mph AVG EV, and 45% HH rate.
Gunnar Henderson (11.4%/92.0 mph/52%)
Josh Jung (11.9%/91.8 mph/47.4%)
Triston Casas (13.1%/91.1 mph/46.6%)
Ryan Noda (13%/91.2 mph/45%)
Francisco Alvarez (12.8%/90.1 mph/45.1%) pic.twitter.com/2aYu90A731— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) January 2, 2024
Noda projects as Oakland's leadoff man and their lineup isn't as bad as you might think. He should rack up enough PAs for his OBP to help a lot in formats that use it, and he should score a bunch of runs as well.
7. Rhys Hoskins Slugs at Least 40 Homers
Rhys Hoskins didn't play at all in 2023 and fantasy managers may have forgotten about him. In 2022, Hoskins hit .246/.332/.462 with 30 HRs. His game has always been built around hitting tons of flies with above-average pop as evidenced by his career 48.4 FB% and 17.4% HR/FB.
That approach works best in power-friendly parks, and Hoskins has called Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia home for his entire career. Per Statcast, the stadium had a 111 HR factor for right-handed hitters from 2021-2023. Leaving it could've caused problems, but Hoskins smartly chose Milwaukee as his next employer.
Well hello, @rhyshoskins pic.twitter.com/vcoCNJZ9cV
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) February 17, 2024
American Family Field has a 109 HR factor for right-handed hitters, making it nearly as power-friendly as Philadelphia. The Phillie fan base wasn't always kind to Hoskins. Perhaps playing in a more positive environment that still inflates power will propel him to a career-best HR total.
8. Dairon Blanco Steals at Least 40 Bases
"Who is Dairon Blanco?" Blanco is a 31-year-old outfielder who logged tons of time on the farm before getting his first significant big-league opportunity with the Royals last year. He fared well, hitting .258/.324/.452 in 138 PAs. He's currently slated for the short side of a platoon in 2024.
Why should fantasy managers care? Well, Blanco steals bases. Lots of bases. He swiped 71 bags in 82 attempts between Triple-A and MLB last season for a success rate of 87%. Blanco stole 46 bases in 53 attempts between all levels in 2022, also good for an 87% success rate. He went 41-for-55 in 2021, good for a 75% success rate.
Blanco is basically Esteury Ruiz with a cheaper draft price and more of a track record as a hitter. Here's how he did in his post-pandemic MiLB stops:
He doesn't strike out often and tends to hit for a high average, which is precisely what fantasy managers are looking for from Jackrabbits. This is the kind of guy who steals 30 in a part-time role with an upside for 70 or more if he finds everyday playing time, and that kind of potential is worth well more than his ADP of 719.43.
9. Seth Lugo Posts an ERA of 3.50 or Better
Seth Lugo finally got a chance to start in 2023, and it went well. He posted a 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 IP backed by a 3.76 xFIP for the Padres and parlayed his success into a new contract with the Royals. With a full year of starting under his belt, Lugo should be able to approach the 180 IP mark this year.
Lugo's 23.2 K% isn't super exciting in fantasy, but it works with his 6 BB%. Kauffman Stadium suppresses power with an 84 Statcast HR factor from 2021-2023, so Lugo should be able to improve his 13.3% HR/FB last season.
Likewise, the Royals played outstanding defense with 28 Outs Above Average as a team. Lugo received neutral defensive support from the Padres last year, so his BABIP could decline from .298 if his new teammates can help him out.
We're effectively betting on a repeat here which ordinarily wouldn't qualify as bold. However, Lugo's ADP of 348.7 suggests the fantasy community views a repeat as unlikely.
10. The Kansas City Royals Win the AL Central
Every year, I like to pick a sleeper team that I believe will outperform expectations and provide pitchers with more wins than the broader fantasy community expects. This year, I'm going with the Royals.
I like Blanco and Lugo more than the projections, naturally. Bobby Witt Jr. is probably the best player in the division, and ZiPS projects Kansas City to score 4.66 runs per game: the highest in the division. They're still only projected for 76 wins because the computer doesn't like their pitching. I'll take the over.
Cole Ragans looked great last season with a 3.47 ERA backed by a 3.28 xERA and 28.8 K%. The computer expects an ERA near 4.00 and a 24 K% even though Ragans got more Ks on the farm. Similarly, Michael Wacha had an ERA of 3.22 last year and 3.32 the year before, so the computer gives him a projection in the mid-4s. Brady Singer has to be better than last season's 5.52 ERA and had a 3.23 ERA as recently as 2022.
These pitchers have potential, and the offense is the class of the division. It isn't as crazy as you might expect.
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