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There are three types of people in this world: Those who continue to push their luck when they're on a heater, those who quit while they're ahead, and those who don't gamble at all. But if you're reading this article, you're probably not in that third group. So which of the first two are you?
Just because a player is on a hot streak doesn't mean it will continue. You can push your luck and roll with some of the players listed below or you can recognize that a past performance doesn't always translate to future success.
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 10, potential fantasy landmines may need to find a spot on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 10 of the NFL season.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!Dak Prescott vs. New York Giants
Dak Prescott has been on fire and is the QB1 over the last two weeks, to the tune of 678 passing yards and seven touchdowns. The next matchup doesn't get much tougher with the New York Giants coming to town.
There are, however, blowout concerns in this contest. That's the story we saw in Week 1 when the Cowboys went to East Rutherford and scored two touchdowns on defense and special teams. Midway through the second quarter, Prescott hadn't registered a touchdown of his own, and the score was 26-0. Two more rushing touchdowns later, the Cowboys win 40-0 and Prescott has a miserable stat line for fantasy football.
That was all done with Daniel Jones under center. He is, as anyone with half of a football brain could tell you, not a good quarterback. Yet, he's still considerably better than undrafted rookie Tommy Devito, who will get the start.
One of two things will happen in this game. In the first scenario, Devito limits his mistakes and the Giants suffer through a series of short drives. That allows Prescott to pick apart the defense en route to several scores. The second, less-than-ideal option has the Cowboys forcing several turnovers, which gives Prescott short fields, or worse, the defense scores on those takeaways. Any early touchdowns that aren't scored by Prescott come with immediate concerns.
Prescott is still ranked in the top five for Week 10 and can be started with supreme confidence. Hopefully, the defense does not pick on Devito early.
Russell Wilson at Buffalo
Russell Wilson has already thrown as many passing touchdowns as he did all of 2022 but his attempt numbers don't represent a player lighting up the scoreboard. The former Seahawk has thrown 31 or fewer passes in every game since their 50-point loss to the Dolphins. When those two facts are combined together, we get a quarterback leading the league in touchdown rate at 6.9%. For reference, Wilson's career touchdown rate, which is tied for 15th all-time, is one percentage point lower.
| Game | Pass Attempts | Touchdowns |
| At Chicago | 28 | 3 |
| Vs. New York Jets | 31 | 2 |
| At Kansas City | 22 | 1 |
| Vs. Green Bay | 29 | 1 |
| Vs. Kansas City | 19 | 3 |
With the defense improving by leaps and bounds, the Broncos are relying on their running game more often. Javonte Williams has 18 and 30 touches in Denver's last two games. Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine are also involved. Wilson tossed just 19 passes in their win over Kansas City, albeit three of those ended up in the end zone.
The Buffalo Bills rank in the top five for fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. If managers are searching for a streaming quarterback candidate to replace Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts, there are better options than Wilson.
Gus Edwards / Keaton Mitchell vs. Cleveland
Running back committees are (in your best Jean-Ralphio impression) THE WOOORRRSSSTTT!
Keaton Mitchell's emergence in Week 9 may have created a logjam in the Baltimore backfield. Gus Edwards was already relinquishing several touches per game to Justice Hill. If the undrafted rookie also enters the rotation, the trio will all have bust potential on a week-to-week basis.
It's crazy to think that a running back with just five carries in Week 9 finished as the RB11 for the week and is the first overall running back across the last three weeks. Six touchdowns in that span propelled Edwards to the top spot. He is finding the end zone with ease and he's still the 1A in the backfield.
The Cleveland Browns are statistically one of the most dominant defenses in recent history. They are just marginally worse against the run than their league-leading numbers against the pass. In this same matchup in Week 4, Edwards' team-leading 15 carries went for just 48 yards. Hill and Melvin Gordon III were each given three attempts. Lamar Jackson poached the two short rushing touchdowns.
If Edwards' opportunities slip with Mitchell and Hill more involved, he's a touchdown-or-bust play against Cleveland.
Jerome Ford at Baltimore
A touchdown vulture has landed in Cleveland.
For the most part, Jerome Ford has maintained his status as the lead back for the Browns. His usage did take a slight dip as he worked through an ankle injury, but he rebounded in Week 9 to lead the team with 20 carries. Unfortunately, Kareem Hunt is taking scoring chances away from the ex-Cincinnati Bearcat.
Hunt has registered a touchdown in each of the last four games. In the game that Ford also scored (Week 7 against Indianapolis), Hunt needed to one-up the young back and score twice. The Browns' coaching staff is leaning on their trusted veteran near the goal line. Neither runner may get a legitimate scoring opportunity against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10.
When comparing talent versus talent, the Ravens' defense is superior to Ford's skills as a running back. Expect an inefficient running game from the second-year back with lower-than-usual touchdown odds.
Devin Singletary at Cincinnati
In non-PPR formats, reserve running back Dare Ogunbowale outscored the man atop the depth chart, Devin Singletary. Singletary was given 15 touches on offense. Ogunbowale had zero. But he did kick a 29-yard field goal in place of the injured Ka'imi Fairbairn, resulting in three fantasy points. Singletary only racked up 26 total yards.
The Texans' running game is abysmal. With D'Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco, Raheem Mostert, and Darrell Henderson Jr. all on bye, managers may be looking at Singletary's usage and thinking that he's a good play for Week 10. The Cincinnati Bengals, after all, are about league-average for fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Don't buy it. Singletary and regular starter Dameon Pierce (who is unlikely to play with an ankle injury) combined for 76 yards against the Panthers' defense just two weeks ago. That is one of the easiest matchups in the book for the 2023 season. If Singletary can't get it done against Carolina (or Tampa Bay), what evidence do we have that he won't bust again against Cincinnati?
Davante Adams / Jakobi Meyers vs. New York Jets
Davante Adams is having one rollercoaster of a 2023 season. Coming into the year, he was being doubted for his age and ability to put up points with Jimmy Garoppolo tossing the pigskin. Then, he started the season strong, including a 13-catch, 172-yard, two-touchdown outburst against Pittsburgh in Week 3. That was the pinnacle of the first drop. We've been waiting for the next thrill ever since.
Since Week 5, Adams has topped double-digit PPR fantasy points just once. Even with a change at quarterback for Week 9, rookie Aidan O'Connell only connected with the All-Pro four times for 34 yards.
Adams may very well break out again at some point this season, but it won't be in Week 10. Regardless of format, the New York Jets hold opposing wideouts to the fewest fantasy points per game. Sauce Gardner is arguably the cream of the crop at the cornerback position and his counterpart, D.J. Reed, also ranks in the top five of PFF's coverage grades.
| Cornerback | PFF Coverage Grade |
| Jaylon Johnson (CHI) | 88.9 |
| Darious Williams (JAX) | 87.8 |
| Paulson Adebo (NO) | 87.0 |
| Sauce Gardner (NYJ) | 86.7 |
| D.J. Reed (NYJ) | 85.5 |
Adams is still in the WR2 range this week. The same case can be made against Jakobi Meyers, who I'm avoiding this week if possible.
Jahan Dotson at Seattle
Jahan Dotson is enjoying a mini-breakout in his second year in the NFL. A disappointment on the season as a whole, the former first-round NFL Draft selection has scored better than 16 PPR fantasy points in two straight contests. It's not a coincidence that his two best games of the season came when Curtis Samuel (toe) was not on the field. He's participating in practices this week, albeit in a limited fashion.
Sam Howell has already earned the reputation of a quarterback who tends to spread the ball around. Dotson, Samuel, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas all average at least five targets per game. Having Samuel off of the field has allowed Dotson to garner 18 targets combined against Philadelphia and New England. Samuel earned four targets in just 19 percent of the snaps before departing the game against the Eagles. Howell looks his way often.
The Seattle Seahawks have become a scarier secondary since being embarrassed to begin the year. It coincides with having safety Jamal Adams in the lineup and the emergence of rookie first-round pick Devon Witherspoon. The unit has allowed the third-fewest yards to receivers since Week 5.
If Samuel is back, Dotson will likely see fewer targets, which caps his upside against an improving Seattle defense.
George Pickens vs. Green Bay
Diontae Johnson is the WR1 in Pittsburgh. In the last two games, when he's played 88% of the snaps or more, Johnson has 15 catches on 23 targets for 175 yards and a touchdown. He's undervalued due to his extended absence with a hamstring injury.
George Pickens has now faded into being the "other guy" in the Pittsburgh passing game. Kenny Pickett isn't good enough to support two fantasy football wideouts. In the same two-game window, Pickens has 10 targets, three catches, 21 yards, and one score. Last week, his one catch went in the wrong direction and he whiffed on what appeared to be an easy touchdown snag.
Oddly, Pickens' two best games came against two of the top defenses in the NFL, Baltimore and Cleveland. Could that trend continue when Pittsburgh faces a solid Green Bay pass defense? The Packers are nearly as bad on offense as Pickett and Co., meaning the Steelers could actually be playing with a lead and not squeaking out a win late in the game. It's a prime opportunity for Mike Tomlin to rely on his two-headed rushing attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Cade Otton vs. Tennessee
Zero. That's the number of touchdowns the Titans have allowed to opposing tight ends this season. They've even played against touchdown magnet Taysom Hill and All-Pro Mark Andrews (not to mention the dynamic duo of Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith).
Cade Otton has been reliable in the last three games, scoring at least 8.7 PPR points, and is coming off of a six-catch, 70-yard, and two-touchdown performance. Fantasy managers may see his TE3 finish for Week 9 and chase the points with Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, and Darren Waller out of lineups.
Don't chase the points. The Tampa Bay offense is below average and there are several better options than Otton on the waiver wire. Logan Thomas, Gerald Everett, and Hunter Henry are safer plays in Week 10.
Evan Engram vs. San Francisco
Fantasy managers are starting two running backs, four wide receivers, two tight ends, and two quarterbacks in this matchup between Jacksonville and San Francisco. Both of these defenses allow under 20 points per game. Something has to give, right? The most likely scenario is that it's one of the two tight ends, Evan Engram and George Kittle.
The 49ers' defense is among the best at limiting fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Plus, in the last three games (all losses), the secondary has been getting torched by their opponent's top wideout instead.
| Wide Receiver | Tight End | |
| At Cleveland | Amari Cooper
4 catches, 108 yards |
David Njoku
3 catches, 24 yards |
| At Minnesota | Jordan Addison
7 catches, 123 yards, 2 TDs |
T.J. Hockenson
11 catches, 86 yards |
| Vs. Cincinnati | Ja’Marr Chase 10 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD |
Irv Smith Jr.
4 catches, 25 yards |
San Francisco hasn't exactly faced murderer's row when it comes to tight ends, so maybe Engram will have enough opportunities to come through. He's not a sit due to position scarcity but could be lower on the totem pole in Jacksonville's game plan this week.
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