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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, Sept 11, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a hefty 14-game MLB schedule on this Monday afternoon and evening as we continue to inch towards the postseason!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Logan Gilbert to record a win (+105, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Los Angeles Angels have thrown in the towel on the 2023 season which bodes quite well for Logan Gilbert's win upside tonight in Seattle.
Gilbert enters this contest sporting a rock-solid 3.61 ERA on the season as he's 13-5 on the campaign as well, the second straight season he has reached the 13-win mark. For good measure, Gilbert has also posted a 3.58 FIP, 3.67 SIERA, and an elite 4.5% BB% that has allowed him to get deep enough into ball games to earn a victory.
While the Angels' offense was strong for much of the season, they've been awful of late. In fact, their -0.2 offensive fWAR over the last 30 days is the worst mark in baseball while they sit 29th with a .289 wOBA in that span as well.
There isn't a better matchup for Gilbert to grab a win than taking on the fast-sinking Angels tonight at home.
Mason Miller under 3.5 strikeouts (-110, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Oakland A's and Houston Astros get together in an AL West tilt tonight in Houston as it's youngster Mason Miller getting the start for the road side.
It's Miller's first start since early May as he has once again dealt with injuries this season as he tossed just two innings while facing the minimum six batters in his last outing against the Blue Jays. That appearance came as a reliever and while he's getting the ball to start this one tonight, he will be facing a pitch count and thus will be hard-pressed to rack up many strikeouts.
He did strike out three of the six hitters he faced against the Blue Jays his last time out but this Astros offense has been a different cat of late. Houston not only sits first with a .379 wOBA over the last 30 days but they also sport a tiny 15.9% K% as a team in that time, easily the best mark in the big leagues. This team has long been a tough group to strike out and that has been the case again this season.
A pitch count with an extremely tough matchup should combine to limit Miller's strikeout upside tonight on the road.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Francisco Lindor over 1.5 total bases (+105, DraftKings sportsbook)
The New York Mets take on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight as right-hander Zach Davies gets the ball for the D-backs.
It's been tough sledding for Davies this season as the veteran hurler sports a 6.81 ERA across 15 starts on the season along with a 4.54 FIP and 5.09 SIERA across his 71 1/3 frames on the season. He has been roughed up by both left and right-handed hitters on the season while he sports an unsightly 8.38 ERA across 19 1/3 innings on the road.
As for Lindor, he's had an excellent season at the plate as he's swatted 26 homers, 32 doubles, a pair of triples across 140 contests. The switch-hitting veteran has actually been better against left-handed pitching this time around but he also sports a .273 isolated power and an .860 OPS so far in the month of September.
The Mets should be able to have their way with Davies tonight and look for Lindor to be in the middle of the action at excellent value.
Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+130, DraftKings sportsbook)
I noted Miller's status above and that's a very good reason to like Tucker's total bases prop tonight at home.
Miller has been excellent with a 3.09 ERA on the season but, as noted, he will not be going deep into this ball game. As a result, I'm looking for the red-hot Astros to feast on an A's bullpen that checks in dead last in baseball with a 5.34 ERA on the season.
Also, Kyle Tucker is a pretty good hitter. Indeed, the 26-year-old perennial All-Star is hitting .290 with 26 home runs and an .888 OPS across 140 games on the season. He doesn't strike out much at all with a minuscule 13.1% K% on the season while he's mashed both lefties and righties this season, meaning it doesn't matter who comes out of the A's bullpen following Miller's departure.
It seems awfully appetizing to see one of the game's best hitters sporting +130 odds to take on what will largely be the worst bullpen in the majors tonight. This one is simply too good to pass up on.
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