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Split slate today that is starting at 1:05 p.m. I love it when we get baseball all day long. I feel terrific about the props I will recommend today, and they are my top choices of a couple of options I like. I will get a little different in today's article as I have been into different types of prop bets as of late. My colleagues, especially Thunder Dan, have been crushing some prop bets lately, so let's keep the momentum rolling here at RotoBaller.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, August 30, 2023. I will continue to hone in on pitcher props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow with some hitter props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Reid Detmers OVER 5.5 hits allowed (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Reid Detmers will square off against the Philadelphia Phillies on the road this afternoon. Detmers, for some reason, is my kryptonite as I never get him right, but here we are going right back to the well with him. Over the last 30 days, he has struggled allowing .448 wOBA, .361 ISO, and a 47.7% hard hit. Detmers has allowed seven or more hits in three of his last four starts. The Phillies are on a tear and have a 137 wRC+, .375 wOBA, and a .535 SLG against left-hand pitching in August.
Cristopher Sanchez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings SportsBook)
What the Angels did with their roster yesterday was the end of one of the most incredible arcs of roster turnover I’ve seen. For now, this Angels team just became the most lucrative to attack until the market catches up. The current projected lineup has a 32.9% K% against left-hand pitching this season. Cristopher Sanchez, over his last six starts, has a 3.28 SIERA, 24.5% K%, and a 9.4% SwStr%.
Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+114 FanDuel SportsBook)
I don't typically attack the Guardians for strikeouts, but I think we have mispricing here for the form of Sonny Gray. Over his last five starts, Gray has a 3.31 SIERA, 28.1% K%, and a 13.5% SwStr%. He has struck out seven or more hitters in four of those five starts. The Guardians projected lineup has a 19.7% K% against right-hand pitching on the season and a 19.8% K% over the last 30 days. I will buy into the recent form of Sonny Gray here and take the juice on his over in strikeouts.
Logan Webb to record a win (+180 DraftKings SportsBook)
This is an apparent mispricing by DraftKings. It was at +205 right before I was about to bet it. I still love the +180 here for Webb. The Reds have struggled a bit as of late, and Webb has been the best arm for this Giants staff, pitching to a 3.22 SIERA and a 1.10 WHIP on the season. For example, if the Giants' moneyline for the first five innings is -160, and the game is -166, we can take Webb to get a win at much more value. His opposition, Hunter Greene, has struggled to a .620 wOBA, .622 ISO, and a 58.6% hard hit since his return from the IL.
Bryce Miller UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings SportsBook)
Bryce Miller gets a matchup with Oakland here this afternoon. Yes, that does say under against the Athletics, and yes, I know it may be the first time I've said that this season, but there is a reason. Over his last five starts, Miller has a 4.41 SIERA, 21.6% K%, and a 12.9% SwStr%. He has gone for seven or more strikeouts just once in that span. He has gone for under four strikeouts three times in those five starts. He has thrown 85 or less pitches in his last four starts. The Oakland Athletics projected lineup has a 20.4% K% against right-hand pitching over the previous 30 days. Add all these factors in, and we get a solid bet on the under.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 total bases (-110 DraftKings SportsBook)
Goldy gets a premier matchup against the struggling Rich Hill this afternoon. Hill, on the season, has a .364 wOBA, .220 ISO, and a 50.3% hard hit against right-hand hitters. Over the last 30 days, he's been worse with a .417 wOBA, .311 ISO, and a 44.7% hard hit against the split. Paul Goldschmidt has turned it on since the break, especially in August. This month, he has a 206 wRC+, .474 wOBA, and a .654 SLG against left-hand pitching. Goldy is back.
George Springer OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DraftKings SportsBook)
Regarding hitters who have found their grove, insert George Springer in August. Springer and the Blue Jays will matchup with southpaw Patrick Corbin this afternoon. Corbin, this season, has allowed a .363 wOBA, .194 ISO, and a 50.0% hard hit against right-hand hitters. Since the break, Springer has a 145 wRC+, .379 wOBA, and a .500 SLG in 43 plate appearances. In August, he caught fire against left-hand pitching. In 23 plate appearances, he has a 223 wRC+, a .493 wOBA, and a .714 SLG.
Teoscar Hernandez OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DraftKings SportsBook)
I guess the theme of our hitter's section is hot bats, but let's roll with it and keep cashing these total base props. The Mariners will square off against Zach Neal and the Oakland bullpen. Neal, on the season, has a .447 wOBA, .312 ISO, and a 52.5% hard hit against right-hand hitters. Since August 1, Hernandez possesses a 205 wRC+, .462 wOBA, and a .684 SLG against the split. Look for him to carry the load with France and J Rod on the shelf in the middle of this Mariners order.
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