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Welcome back, RotoBallers! The MLB's All-Star Break was only 4 days in length, but without much else in the sports world to turn our attention to, it felt like a month! The Home Run Derby and All-Star Game provided some excitement, which helped, but now we can officially get back to our daily routine of great MLB action, which will lead us straight into football season. Let's start the 2nd half of the baseball season off on the right foot today! I think I've found four valuable spots to attack on Friday's loaded board.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 14, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BellRoto for all things MLB banter.
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O/U: 10 | Moneyline: MIL -120
MIL: Corbin Burnes | CIN: Graham Ashcraft
Why not get a little contrarian with the first play of the second half of the season? The betting public will likely find themselves on the red hot Cincinnati Reds on Friday night, as they open up a massive weekend series against the 2nd place Milwaukee Brewers who trail them by just one game in the NL Central. Backing the Reds has been a gold mine up to this point, but something tells me these two teams come out of the break in slightly different ways.
The Reds were likely wishing the All-Star Break would never come, as they have been riding this incredible winning momentum since the return of Joey Votto. I would guess players and coaches spent four days twiddling their thumbs itching to get back out there. Milwaukee needed this break more, as they've struggled to have everyone healthy and playing well at the same time so far in 2023. This lineup they'll trot out on Friday will be about as strong as it gets, minus Rowdy Tellez, and I see the offenses about evenly matched despite how hyped up the Reds' bats have been in the last month.
The biggest reason for a play on the Brew Crew though is the pitching discrepancy. Burnes has had his share of walk trouble this year, but he's still worlds more talented than Ashcraft at present time. He held the Reds to just two runs on three hits through six innings in his last start before the break, while Ashcraft was pounded by Milwaukee in early June to the tune of 10 hits, four walks, and 10 runs in four frames. A rested and focused Burnes should allow the Brewers to get out to an early lead where they'll hold a slight bullpen advantage too, according to first half xFIP.
The Brewers, on the road, coming out of the break, down by a game in the standings, are favored over the Reds, who will surely be the public side. The bookmakers may be trying to tell us something here. I'm going to take Milwaukee to win on Friday night, setting up an awesome two-game tilt over the weekend to see how first place in the NL Central will look come Monday morning.
Pick: Brewers ML (-120) - DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TEX -145
CLE: Aaron Civale | TEX: Jon Gray
We'll make the next two write-ups quick, because they fall under the same premise: I like the offenses more than I like the pitching. However, because of all these rested bullpens coming out of the break, I don't love the idea of having to surpass a total in the final two frames. So, let's see if we can exploit a little value and get less work done in the first seven innings, which allows us to target just the starters and maybe a middle reliever instead of the rested back-end guys.
I wrote up a fairly optimistic article about the Guardians' bats from a fantasy baseball perspective over the break. That tells you all you need to know about how I expect the Cleveland bats to jump on Gray in this one. The 31-year-old had a string of strong starts when the calendar turned to June, but he regressed quickly in his last few. I like these Guardians bats against a contact-prone right-hander.
Meanwhile, the Rangers don't need much explaining. They own the second-best wOBA against right-handed pitching this year at .340, and there's plenty to be optimistic about when we look ahead to the second half of their season. Civale has been great on the surface so far this year, but a 4.39 xFIP, backed by a 30.7% hard hit rate despite just a 6.9% HR/FB rate suggests that a few rough outings are on the way soon.
Pick: Guardians/Rangers OVER 6.5 - First 7 Innings (-115) - DraftKings Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Cubs
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -120
BOS: Brayan Bello | CHI: Kyle Hendricks
We have two more contact-prone right-handed starters in Chicago, where the wind will be blowing out and the air will be sticky in Wrigleyville. I'm a big fan of both of these lineups when there's a righty on the bump, as they possess some high-upside lefty hitters all over the order.
While neither Bello or Hendricks allow a ton of fly balls, they don't strikeout many batters either, and the hits they do allow in the air tend to travel well. I like the idea of avoiding late-inning arms like Chris Martin, Kenley Jansen, Adbert Alzolay, and Mark Leiter Jr.. Sign me up for eight runs in the first seven frames in a great hitting environment. I've lost many dollars betting against Kyle Hendricks over the years... Why stop now?
Pick: Red Sox/Cubs OVER 7.5 - First 7 Innings (+105) - DraftKings Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Mariners
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SEA -190
DET: Eduardo Rodriguez | SEA: Luis Castillo
The final play of the day is about as straightforward as it gets from an analytics standpoint. I'll try to keep this short as well. Castillo has been solid all year, eating up innings with a plus strikeout rate and a back-able 3.69 xFIP. He's supported by the best bullpen in the league according to xFIP, and the Tigers hold the third-worst wOBA against right-handed pitchers at .289.
Meanwhile, the southpaw Rodriguez has been strong for Detroit as well, but he shows a clear weakness against right-handed bats as opposed to lefties, where his WHIP nearly doubles and xFIP jumps to an average 3.59. Seattle should be able to trot out all righties except for their lead-off man, J.P. Crawford. I expect Seattle to take an early lead, and the bullpen advantage should be magnified when the Tigers elect to save their best back-end arms for the weekend.
Take Seattle to win by two or more runs here, with a safety blanket if the Tigers score a couple in the ninth or the Mariners need to walk things off late in the game.
Pick: Mariners -1 (-135) - DraftKings Sportsbook
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