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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With only a couple of day games today, we're left with a robust 13-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today's matchups feature a surprisingly thin pool of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 6/28/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Blake Snell, SD vs. PIT ($10,300 DK, $11,100 FD)
Snell has evidently turned over a new leaf. Following a rough start to the season, he's surrendered just one run over his past five outings combined. Snell has managed at least six innings in each of those outings, surrendering three hits or less and striking out an average of 10 batters per game during that span.
That all amounts to a 3.22 ERA overall this season. Snell's 4.19 xERA and 11.8% walk rate do highlight his volatility, but he's on an absolute roll right now. Further, his 30.7% strikeout rate reinforces why Snell carries the highest ceiling on this slate.
The Pirates' offense has completely faltered recently. Despite dropping nine runs yesterday, they're only scoring 3.5 runs per game in the month of June, including a .626 team OPS. Pittsburgh is without Bryan Reynolds right now, and they're really starting to suffer. They generally fare better against southpaw pitching, but the Pirates are far from an imposing lineup. The two sides of this matchup are on opposite trajectories. Look for Snell to come out decisively on top.
Kodai Senga, NYM vs. MIL ($10,100 DK, $10,300 FD)
I've been slow to come around on Senga, and I'm still not sold on him in the grand scheme. That said, today presents a worthwhile spot to roll the dice on him. Senga carries a 3.91 xERA through his first 14 starts. His problem, like Snell, is a horrible 13.3% walk rate.
However, if Senga can limit his free passes, then the rest of his optics look good. He doesn't surrender much power, sporting a respectable .359 xSLG, 6.7% barrel rate, and 88.4 mph average exit velocity. Senga also boasts a strong 28% strikeout rate and 29.1% whiff rate, highlighting his upside.
The primary reason I feel compelled to Senga today is his matchup. The Brewers score just four runs per game on the season. That includes a weak .684 OPS and 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. The best part for Senga is that Milwaukee strikes out at a 24.9% rate, the fourth-highest mark in baseball.
There is some talent in the Brewers' lineup, but it's a spot Senga should succeed in. I wouldn't call Senga a safe play, but his ceiling is worth pursuing, especially given the relatively light pitching options on today's slate.
Also consider: Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, Mitch Keller
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mookie Betts – 2B/SS/OF, LAD vs. Kyle Freeland ($6,100 DK, $4,500 FD)
Betts will be the priority among several popular Dodgers bats today. He sports a 131 OPS+ this season, including 19 home runs. Betts boasts a .522 xSLG, .383 xwOBA, 92.4 mph average exit velocity, and 11.2% barrel rate. He's also lighting up left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .634 slugging percentage and 168 wRC+. The best part is that he's playing in Coors today, adding an even greater boost to an already great spot.
Kyle Freeland will have his hands full today. Through 16 starts, he sports a 5.12 xERA, consisting of a .482 xSLG, .281 xBA, .350 xwOBA, and a 41.1% hard-hit rate. Right-handed hitters have been particularly problematic for Freeland, slugging .492 against him with 12 home runs and a .349 wOBA.
Luke Raley – 1B/OF, TB vs. Zach Davies ($4,400 DK, $3,000 FD)
Raley is enjoying a very underrated campaign. He's slashing .270/.348/.562 with 12 home runs and a 158 wRC+. That includes some surprisingly elite underlying numbers, like a .566 xSLG, .388 xwOBA, 92.4 mph average exit velocity, and 19.3% barrel rate. Making contact isn't always a given with Raley's horrible 38.8% whiff rate, but his opponent today generally doesn't miss many bats anyway.
Zach Davies is having an awful season, boasting a 7.82 ERA through eight starts. The advanced numbers suggest he's due for some positive regression, but a 4.70 xERA, 4.97 xFIP, .277 xBA, and .410 xSLG still underscore a mediocre pitcher. Left-handed batters are slugging .489 against Davies this season, up from his .420 career average.
Jordan Westburg – 2B/SS, BAL vs. Luke Weaver ($2,900 DK, $2,700 FD)
One of the Orioles' top prospects, Westburg was promoted to the majors earlier this week. He slashed .295/.372/.567 with 18 home runs across 67 games at the Triple-A level. Westburg has generated three singles during his first two major-league games, but it's only a matter of time until his 55-grade power surfaces. He carries a higher upside than you'll otherwise find in this price range today.
Luke Weaver is one of the more vulnerable pitchers to attack on today's slate. He carries a 5.37 xERA through 12 starts, including a .500 xSLG, .282 xBA, 43.3% hard-hit rate, and 11.4% barrel rate. Weaver has been brutalized by hitters on both sides of the plate, but right-handed batters are slugging .611 against him.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Adolis Garcia – OF, TEX vs. Joey Wentz ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD)
Like several Rangers bats, Garcia is in a great position to succeed today. He's homered in consecutive games entering Wednesday and is up to 19 long balls for the season. Garcia's success includes a .519 xSLG, 51.4% hard-hit rate, 92.2 mph average exit velocity, and 15.4% barrel rate.
Joey Wentz has not been able to figure out major-league hitting yet. Through 15 appearances, he sports an awful 5.47 xERA. That includes a .490 xSLG, .274 xBA, 10.8% barrel rate, 44.6% hard-hit rate, .360 xwOBA, and 90.6 mph average exit velocity. Right-handed hitters are slugging .519 against Wentz with 12 home runs.
Nolan Jones – OF, COL vs. Michael Grove ($4,400 DK, $3,900 FD)
The Dodgers expect to dominate the Coors game chalk today, but it's not a bad idea to get some action on the Rockies. Among the Colorado bats, Jones is one of the more desirable. He's slashing .316/.396/.551 with five home runs and five stolen bases through 29 games. That includes a .519 xSLG, 12.7% barrel rate, and 91.6 mph average exit velocity.
Michael Grove is currently slotted in as the Dodgers' expected starter for today, though they may opt for an opener approach as they did his last time out. Grove carries a 5.12 xERA, .492 xSG, .266 xBA, 9.9% barrel rate, and 90.2 mph average exit velocity. Left-handed hitters are slugging .654 against Grove with a .475 wOBA.
Mike Tauchman – OF, OAK vs. Aaron Nola ($2,600 DK, $2,800 FD)
Tauchman is a less exciting player to roster than other names listed here, but if you're looking to fill an outfielder slot for cheap, he's a trustworthy option. Tauchman has been hitting leadoff against right-handed pitching, slashing .276/.392/.378. He doesn't offer a ton in the way of power, but Tauchman boasts an impressive .293 xBA and 15.7% walk rate. He gets on base and finds ways to produce fantasy points, occasionally mixing in stolen bases and extra-base hits.
Aaron Nola is far from the worst pitcher on this slate, but it has been a rockier season for him in 2023 than we expected to see. He's not missing bats as he used to, and left-handed batters are slugging .401 against Nola. I wouldn't advocate for stacking against Nola, but Tauchman as a cheap one-off from the leadoff spot makes plenty of sense.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Texas Rangers vs. Joey Wentz
The Rangers look fantastic in this spot today. They carry a .824 OPS against left-handed pitching, the second-highest in the majors, alongside a 129 wRC+. Overall, Texas scores a league-best 5.9 runs per game for the season. The Rangers' top bats are expensive to roster, but cheaper guys like Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras will help alleviate the salary hit and makes stacking more accessible.
Joey Wentz has been lit up all season, sporting a 5.47 xERA through 15 appearances. That includes a .490 xSLG, .274 xBA, 10.8% barrel rate, 44.6% hard-hit rate, .360 xwOBA, and 90.6 mph average exit velocity. Right-handed hitters are slugging .519 against Wentz with 12 home runs, but lefties have found success as well. Guys like Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe are certainly in play.
Favorite Plays: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland
The Dodgers are the low-hanging fruit on this slate. They were massively chalky yesterday, and I anticipate more of the same today. Los Angeles scores a strong 5.3 runs per game behind big names like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith. It's never a bad thing to get different, especially on a deep 13-game slate, but it's hard to ignore how good the Dodgers lineup looks playing at Coors Field.
Coors Field or not, Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up this season. Through 16 starts, he sports a 5.12 xERA, consisting of a .482 xSLG, .281 xBA, .350 xwOBA, and a 41.1% hard-hit rate. Right-handed hitters have been particularly problematic for Freeland, slugging .492 against him with 12 home runs and a .349 wOBA. Looking beyond Freeland, Colorado's bullpen boasts a 4.79 ERA, the fourth-worst in baseball.
Favorite Plays: Mookie Betts, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy
Also Consider: Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays
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