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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 15 Saturday Slate
Monday night's injury fest was a harsh reminder that deciding between over and under also includes other variables, such as injury. Obviously, they are unpredictable, but they make taking the over slightly riskier because of the potential for a player to get knocked out of a game. With that in mind, you'll see more bets on the under than on the over.
Josh Allen OVER 22.69 fantasy points
Allen started the season on fire and then suffered a UCL injury in his elbow, which has impacted his production. He's still on the injury report, but he's practiced in full all week for multiple weeks now, indicating he's trending toward being healthy. Additionally, he's one of only a handful of quarterbacks that can supplement that production with his legs, which is beneficial in a four-point passing touchdown format. He's rushed the ball 28 times for 145 yards and two touchdowns over the past three games, providing a baseline of about nine points per week on the ground. He's also thrown for two touchdowns in the two previous games leading into last week against an elite defense that has been shutting everyone down. Plus, he's cleaned up the turnovers, throwing only one interception in his past four outings.
If we start with that nine-point mark from above, he only needs 13.69 points passing, which requires 242 yards and one touchdown. There's a solid chance he has an even better day through the air because the matchup against the Dolphins at home is so good. They're the fourth-best matchup on the season for fantasy quarterbacks, plus their defense ranks 22nd in pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. You can expect Allen to torch this defense and earn a key win in their hunt for the No. 1 seed and the division crown, so take the over.
Justin Jefferson OVER 21.45 fantasy points
If you're asking me to trust a wide receiver in my lineup to have a big game and hit an over, it has to be Jefferson. He's been on an absolute tear. The line is high for a pass-catcher, but he's no ordinary receiver. He currently leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,500 and sits one reception behind Tyreek Hill for the league lead with 99. He's also found the end zone six times.
What's particularly unique about him is he's one of only a few players at his position that could reach this mark without scoring, as evidenced by his 33.3-point output last week. He's the focal point of a potent Minnesota passing attack, taking on a Colts squad they'll be able to score against and defeat. Furthermore, he's cleared the line in four of his past six games, missing it by fewer than three points one of the times he missed it, and the other was against the Cowboys, a ferocious defense, in a game the whole team collapsed. Take the over for Jefferson to continue breaking records and putting up big days.
Gabe Davis UNDER 11.25 fantasy points
Davis is amidst a disastrous four-game stretch, averaging 8.8 fantasy points, which includes a touchdown. He's averaged fewer than three receptions per game while finishing with under 40 yards in three of those contests. He hasn't beaten this line since Week 12 and has given us no reason to believe he's on an upward trajectory.
Everyone in the Bills' receiving corps is healthy, their tight end Dawson Knox remains involved in the red zone, and Allen is more than happy to take off and run. Take the under and another lackluster performance from Davis.
Nick Chubb UNDER 13.65 fantasy Points
It's been tough sledding for Chubb, who experienced a quarterback transition and has failed to receive the number of carries he usually does. Typically, Chubb underperforms when the team is facing a stout defense and a team that is much better than they are, forcing them to abandon the run and throw more. It's problematic for him because he's not utilized as often in the passing game, evidenced by his five total targets during the past three games. However, two weeks ago against the worst run defense in the NFL, Houston, he still only totaled 80 yards on 17 carries, signaling concern with the offense.
Anyone who has watched their past two performances can see Deshaun Watson has struggled, and a date with the Baltimore is not the cure. Since they acquired Roquan Smith and came out of their bye week, they have been very difficult to generate offense against, particularly on the ground.
Over the past four games, they've allowed an average of 45.4 rushing yards per game to the entirety of their opponent's backfield, not just the lead back. In addition, they've only allowed an opposing running back to score once in that stretch. The odds of a touchdown are low, catching several passes to boost his total seems unlikely, and racking up 100-plus total yards is a tall ask. Take the under of Chubb.
Mark Andrews UNDER 12.51 fantasy Points
If you told me earlier in the season that I'd be presenting a case to take the under on this line for Andrews, I would have denied it profusely, but here we are. Between injuries to Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, the receiving corps, and Andrews himself, it's been a terrible experience for the Baltimore passing attack. Over the past five games, they've averaged 180 passing yards per game while passing for fewer than 200 yards three times. It's really hard for any of the receivers to succeed with such a low number of yards split among them.
Additionally, Andrews hasn't been the king of volume or touchdowns as we've come to expect. He's had more than four catches only once since returning from injury and hasn't found the end zone since Week 6, which was also the last time he went over this line. Betting against Andrews to succeed feels backward, but under the current circumstances against the Browns, who are the fifth-worst matchup for fantasy tight ends, it's the correct decision.
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