RADIO
We followed up a strong Week 5 with another solid weekend of DFS predictions. Landing on the top stack two weeks in a row is huge, and hopefully a few of you got onto Burrow-Chase stacks as a result of reading last week.
Week 7 is a tricky one, as high-powered offenses like Buffalo and Philly are off the main slate. We have just one game projected for 50 or more points (SEA-LAC). However, there are some capable offenses in better-than-average spots. Let’s dive in.
**Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.**
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Joe Burrow ($6900) + Ja'Marr Chase ($8200) OR Tee Higgins ($6400)
Few feelings are better than giving spot-on fantasy football advice. Last week’s eruption spot for Cincy’s passing game was somewhat predictable if you’re experienced in DFS/football prognostication, but I’m not here to brag; I’m here to tell you why Burrow stacks are once again viable in Week 7.
Up next for Zac Taylor’s team is the Atlanta Falcons. Arthur Smith’s Dirty Birds have allowed the second-most passing yards and the sixth-most total yards per game to this point. Ja’Marr Chase showed us exactly why we should never worry about him in Week 6, dropping 7/132/2 on the Saints. He and Tee Higgins, who logged a full practice on Thursday, should have their way against Atlanta’s secondary.
A.J. Terrell, who boasted a top-five PFF coverage grade in 2021, has been less than disappointing in 2022; the former Clemson Tiger is currently ranked 138th of 179 eligible CBs in PFF’s coverage grade. He has given up a 66.7% completion rate (26-of-39) and a league-leading seven touchdowns to this point. That, combined with the Falcons’ measly sack total (eight), bodes well for the Cincy passing attack on Sunday.
Preferred bring-back: Kyle Pitts ($4300)
Leverage piece: Joe Mixon ($7000)
Joe Mixon ranks No. 1 at the running back position in expected fantasy points per game (19.9; Player Profiler). His 14.3 actual fantasy points per game ranks 16th, creating a 5.6-point difference. To summarize: Mixon is due for a big outing, and Atlanta is ripe for the picking.
The Falcons have surrendered the sixth-most receptions to running backs, and if the receivers are having days like I’m expecting, Mixon could find himself in goal-to-go scenarios quite often in Week 7. Only Nick Chubb and Jalen Hurts have more red-zone rushing attempts than Mixon’s 17.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Justin Herbert ($8100) + Mike Williams ($7800)
Every once in a while, a great receiver is put in their place by a great cornerback. Patrick Surtain put the clamps on Mike Williams during L.A.’s Monday Night Football matchup with Denver in Week 6. It is what it is.
I’m hopeful this will reduce Big Mike Williams’ ownership come Sunday, but DFS players are too sharp nowadays, so I highly doubt it. Week 7 brings a mouth-watering matchup for the Chargers and their offense -- in particular the passing game. Pete Carroll’s circus of a defense is serving up 7.8 yards per attempt, which has only been “bested” by the Titans and Vikings. Justin Herbert should be looking deep downfield for his field-stretching WR early and often on Sunday.
Additionally, injuries are piling up for Brandon Staley’s offense, with plenty of notable playmakers appearing on the injury report ahead of this weekend’s action. Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, Josh Palmer, and Donald Parham are all listed, but Allen and Everett have at least practiced in some capacity.
Monitor the status of Allen heading into the weekend. If he is unavailable, Williams is set up to smash on Sunday. And if Allen does play, that might be the catalyst we need for lower ownership on Big Mike.
Preferred bring-back: DK Metcalf ($6900)
Leverage piece: Austin Ekeler ($9500)
His price is certainly elevated, but the role has been phenomenal for Austin Ekeler -- as he’s commanding a bevy of high-value touches out of the backfield. He currently ranks first in targets and fourth in red-zone touches at the RB position.
Seattle is equally as unimposing against ground-based attacks as they are against aerial attacks; only the Lions have given up more rushing yards per game than the Seahawks. Along with that, Seattle is one of seven teams allowing 5.0 yards or better per carry. The role is just too good right now to not consider Mr. Ekeler.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Tom Brady ($6300) + Mike Evans ($6900) AND/OR Chris Godwin ($6300)
Tampa Bay’s offense has appeared broken in recent weeks, and a 20-18 loss to Pittsburgh last week signals very clear problems for Tom Brady and his cast of fantasy weapons. However, we’re going back to the well here in a strong matchup with lowly Carolina, a team that is so woeful offensively, it could be just what the Bucs need to jump-start their offense.
The Panthers, who just traded Christian McCaffrey to San Fran literally 10 minutes prior to me typing this, currently rank dead last in yards per game at 260.0. P.J. Walker is coming off of an atrocious 10-for-16, 60-yard passing performance against the Rams, and Tampa’s defense is no slouch. Short fields could be the theme for Brady and the boys, and that’s music to the ears of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
When his team is underperforming, Brady gets fiery, as he did last week. This offense could certainly use a morale boost, and the football gods have handed them one here with this matchup. Sporting a 2:8 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, the turnovers could pile up for Walker, along with the extra possessions for Brady. Don’t overthink this -- stack Brady with his top pass catchers and watch the fantasy points pile up.
Preferred bring-back: D.J. Moore ($4900)
Leverage piece: Cade Otton ($2700)
Cameron Brate, unfortunately, suffered a head/neck injury last weekend, so the next man up is Cade Otton -- a rookie out of Washington. The 23-year-old already has some NFL experience, as he’s accrued 12 catches through five appearances this season. He likely won’t post a 100-yard game or score a boatload of touchdowns, but slotting him into your lineup will give you some flexibility for Week 7 to fit some high-priced studs.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Jimmy Garoppolo ($7200) + Deebo Samuel ($7700) OR Brandon Aiyuk ($6300), George Kittle ($6600)
As mentioned before, the CMC trade shakes things up for San Francisco moving forward, but nobody truly knows how involved he’ll be this upcoming Sunday. Regardless of whether he plays or not, Jimmy Garoppolo and the passing attack are poised for a breakout game here against Kansas City’s suspect secondary.
No team has faced more passing attempts this season than Andy Reid’s defense (245) and they have allowed the most passing TDs of any team (15). We’ve come to know Kyle Shanahan’s club as a run-first, grind-it-out type of team, but they will drop back to pass when it is necessary. Garoppolo racked up 296 yards and two touchdowns last weekend in a come-from-behind effort against Atlanta.
George Kittle is finally looking like his old self, fresh off of an 8/83/0 game. Brandon Aiyuk flashed his upside with the exact same stat line plus two touchdowns in Week 6. And we know what Deebo Samuel is capable of doing in a projected shootout like this. The Chiefs have yielded the third-most FanDuel points to wideouts this season (33.9).
Vegas thinks points will be scored here, evidenced by the 48.5-point total. OT Trent Williams’ return should also be huge for San Francisco’s offense as a whole. Buy the Niners’ passing attack here.
Preferred bring-back: Travis Kelce ($8300)
Leverage piece: Not too sure (CMC trade throws a wrench into things.)
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Matt Ryan ($5400) + Michael Pittman Jr. ($7400) AND/OR Alec Pierce ($4600)
It was a very different approach versus the previous weeks for Frank Reich’s offense in Week 7, as Indy’s head man asked his 37-year-old QB to drop back to pass 58 times in last Sunday’s 34-27 victory over Jacksonville. The strategy worked, as the Colts claimed redemption after their embarrassing 24-0 loss to that same team back in Week 2.
Heading into this weekend, the Colts would be wise to employ a similar strategy -- even with Jonathan Taylor likely to return. The Titans have operated as a huge pass funnel this season, as they’ve surrendered 287.6 passing yards per outing, to just 103.2 rushing yards. Along with that, Tennessee is responsible for the second-most DK points per game given up to opposing WRs.
Michael Pittman had been relatively quiet since his Week 1 eruption, but the former USC Trojan pieced together a monster performance last weekend (13/134/0 on 16 targets). Indy would be wise to continue to force-feed their talented receiver the ball -- especially in this plus matchup. Rookie Alec Pierce has also flexed his fantasy muscles in recent weeks, as he’s totaled at least 60 yards or scored a touchdown in four straight games.
Preferred bring-back: Derrick Henry ($8200)
Leverage piece: Mo Alie-Cox ($3000)
The last time these two teams met (Week 4 in Indy), Mo Alie-Cox caught all six of his targets for 85 yards and scored twice. Now, I wouldn’t expect a similar stat line this weekend, but obviously the Colts game-planned to exploit a certain matchup that week. At just $3000, Alie-Cox is a cheap TE with upside in a solid matchup.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett ($6500) + Amari Cooper ($7200) OR David Njoku ($5700), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5600)
Due to their getting dismantled by Miami through the air in Week 2, Baltimore still ranks bottom five in completions, passing yards, and passing TDs allowed. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each caught 11 balls, topped 171 yards, and caught two touchdowns in that insane game.
Since that game, the Ravens have been better against the pass, but they also lucked out in certain instances. When they met up with the Bills earlier this year, the weather impacted that game and Josh Allen was not his usual self. In last week’s game, they faced a Giants team with a depleted receiving corps and still lost. DeVante Parker also put it on this team back in Week 3 with 5/156/0.
Cleveland is certainly not a pass-first team, but with Baltimore favored by almost a touchdown, the Browns could be forced into a pass-happy game plan. Amari Cooper has two 100-yard games and four games with a touchdown in a Browns uniform. His role is very strong, as he ranks ninth in targets (55) and fourth in air yards (645). He’s the obvious top option here when stacking with Brissett.
After that, look to David Njoku, who owns top-10 metrics in routes run (No. 8), snap share (No. 6), targets (No. 6), and red-zone targets (No. 4) among tight ends (Player Profiler). If you’re looking for an all-or-nothing guy, Donovan Peoples-Jones fits that bill. He owns four games with 80 or more receiving yards in his three-year career.
Preferred bring-back: Kenyan Drake ($6600)
Leverage piece: Kareem Hunt ($5800)
Baltimore has been very generous to receiving backs thus far in 2022; they have allowed the third-most targets and catches to the position and the fifth-most yards. Game script should be in favor of Hunt this weekend, and we’ve seen his ceiling in the past. Don’t overlook Cleveland’s 1B option in their backfield.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here — @thejacksonkane.
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