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Making predictions for the upcoming season is one of the best parts of the offseason. Like a financial analyst spotting possible trends in the stock market before they happen, we are always trying to spot breakout players before they occur and get in early to maximize our levels of return in fantasy land. Dameon Pierce is one player who has seen a meteoric rise up the ADP charts over the summer to the point where he may no longer be a current value in drafts. If you grabbed him in the 13th Round of your Scott Fish Bowl 12 like yours truly in early July, then the opportunity for value is there.
The key to making solid predictions for the upcoming season is to not get over emotional about wanting some of "your guys" to break out. Instead, it's important to step back and look over all of the data and make some reasonable determinations based on previous trends. It isn't really a bold prediction to say that Justin Jefferson is the WR1 or that Christian McCaffrey should still be the 1.01 as those have become all too common talking points this offseason. Instead, let's think outside the box to spot things analysts haven't been talking about.
Below are my five bold predictions for the 2022 fantasy football season.
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Javonte Williams Finishes as a Top-Three RB in Fantasy
A player with an incredible combination of power and speed, Javonte Williams checks all of the boxes of what we want in a breakout running back candidate. He is young, has all of the athletic measurables, is a viable threat as a receiver, and is in a good offense. Last year, Javonte Williams ranked near the top of all NFL running backs in the following categories per Rotoviz:
- 3.3 Yards After Contact (T-2nd)
- 15.8% Broken Tackle Rate (1st)
- 21% Evasion Rate (T-1st)
In 2021, the Broncos' backfield was mostly in a 50/50 split between Javonte and Melvin Gordon, which has some fantasy managers worried. This fear is holding back Javonte's ADP and allowing savvy managers to get a discount on him. What's important to remember is that Melvin Gordon is now 29 years old and was only brought back on a one-year deal.
Gordon has 1,761 career touches and three previous knee injuries. He was also limited in training camp this summer. While Gordon is no doubt a very good player and was a borderline superstar when he was younger, we know that father time eventually comes for all running backs.
On paper, Javonte feels like this year's Jonathan Taylor. While this is no doubt a bold claim and mostly only a favorable one amongst the dynasty community, all the signs are pointing towards Javonte Williams breaking out this season. There is a new coaching staff in Denver with former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett taking over as Head Coach.
While Hackett was known for splitting time between Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon last year, Javonte Williams is a budding superstar. By Week 4 or 5, the difference between Javonte and Gordon will be apparent to all and the Broncos won't be able to leave him off the field.
Denver is projected for 10.5 wins in the Las Vegas Sportsbooks this year and optimism in Denver is high. With the Broncos having to play against Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr six times in their division this year, AFC West matchups are going to be absolute shootouts! This is obviously great for the fantasy values of Broncos players as we know correlation can be a factor in their weekly upside.
Give me as many pieces of the Broncos' offense this year as possible with the centerpiece in the middle of it all being Williams. Next year at this time, he will be a top-five pick in all of redraft leagues and arguably the RB1 in all of dynasty. The time to get in is now before the Javonte train completely leaves the station.
Chris Olave Leads all Rookie WRs in Receiving
There was arguably no college wide receiver more polished and ready to contribute on day one than Chris Olave and it is easy to envision him being a top two target on the Saints right away. While the hope is that Michael Thomas will bounce back, he is 29 years old and coming off of a devastating foot injury which has caused him to miss 26 of a possible 33 games in the last two seasons.
Alvin Kamara looms as a dynamic receiver out of the backfield and Jarvis Landry will dominate the slot, but Olave's differing skill set will provide the Saints offense with some much-needed versatility.
What's important to remember about Olave is that he is a special threat downfield, something that Michael Thomas and Landry are not at this stage of their careers. We know that Jameis Winston loves to take his shots airing it out and his playing style fits in perfectly with what Olave can bring to the table for the Saints. Back in July, Jameis Winston compared Olave to a former pass catcher of his: Chris Godwin.
The Saints do not have a 2023 first-round pick and traded up to 11th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft to select Olave meaning they are "all in" on this season. Given the strong track record of the Saints' front office at drafting skill players in the first three rounds of drafts in recent years, we should feel pretty confident in Olave this year.
While the 2022 WR class featured some promising prospects, there are certain things to remember about other rookies this offseason. Drake London is coming off an injury, Treylon Burks has struggled to get acclimated to a run-first offense in Tennessee, Garrett Wilson and the Jets have known quarterback issues, and it is unknown how much playing time Skyy Moore will see right away in Kansas City.
On top of his budding talent, these factors open up the doorway for Olave to have a solid rookie season and be the best of the bunch in 2022. He got better every season at Ohio State and finished his senior season with 65 receptions for 936 yards and 13 TDs. Olave and Garrett Wilson were so good at Ohio State that Jameson Williams couldn't get on the field.
Tee Higgins Outscores Ja'Marr Chase
Undoubtedly a spicy take that may draw some heat on Twitter, the gap between Chase and Higgins as talents is not as big as some think it is. While Chase is a generational talent, Higgins isn't far behind. Chase looming as the WR1 on the Bengals has driven down Higgins ADP as well. It's better to have a WR2 in a pass-happy offense with a solid quarterback than it is to take a potential WR1 target on a team without as good of an offense or quarterback to support that receiver.
Due to his impressive rookie campaign, Chase is likely to draw the main focus of defensive coordinators each and every week. This will undoubtedly open up things for Higgins. With his late third/early fourth round ADP on most fantasy websites, he is an obvious league-winner that shouldn't be ignored just because of Chase.
In Weeks 11 through 18 last season, Higgins ranked near the top of all NFL wide receivers in PFF receiving grade (seventh), receptions (14th), yards (sixth), and YPRR (eighth). Higgins featured at least 23 PPR points per game in three of his last six games. He is already one of the best receivers in the league who is only being overlooked for being cast in the shadow of Chase.
In 2022, Higgins followed up a solid rookie campaign by raising his target share from 19% to 24% and his yards per game rose from 56.7 to 77.9 and he finished as a WR2 in just about all formats.
The Bengals made some significant upgrades to their offensive line this offseason by bringing in La'el Collins from Dallas. Higgins is good in the red zone with his 6-foot-4-inch height and could become a dominant force there for Cincinnati.
Joe Burrow is just 25 years old and ascending into his prime. As he continues to get even better, this is the year that Higgins has a monster season for fantasy and wins leagues for some people.
Kyle Pitts Finishes as the TE1 and There Will Be an Outcry Over His TE Eligibility in the Offseason
A pretty vanilla take as many analysts have been screaming about Kyle Pitts from the rooftops all offseason, he is simply a generational talent that is too great to ignore. While many of you are probably sick and tired of hearing about him, the landscape is just too ripe for Pitts not to have a breakout this upcoming season.
Here is a little glimpse of why Pitts will forever change the tight end position as we know it based on his 2021 stats:
- 78% of snaps lined out wide or in the slot (1st among TEs per PFF)
- 1188 air yards (2nd)
- 11.2 ADOT (1st)
- 4th in TE routes run
- Pass blocked on just 2.7% of passing plays
- 4.44 forty-yard dash time
At the end of the day, Pitts is really just a wide receiver who happens to qualify as a tight end. While he is a very good blocker, Pitts is simply too great of a downfield threat for the Falcons to feature him all that much in the trenches.
One of the biggest reasons the naysayers have been saying to fade Kyle Pitts this year is because of his quarterback in Atlanta. While Marcus Mariota was replaced in Tennessee, it is easy to forget that he was still the number two overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and has supported tight ends for fantasy purposes in the past.
Delanie Walker had three straight seasons of 800+ receiving yards from 2014 to 2016 with Mariota in Tennessee. Walker's best season was in 2015 when he had 94 receptions for 1,088 yards and six TDs, which was good for an overall TE2 finish in full PPR leagues. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how much more athletic a young Kyle Pitts is compared to a then 31-year-old Walker!
While it has been 2+ seasons since Mariota has been a starter, he is already familiar with head coach Arthur Smith's system in Atlanta and is still just 28 years old, which as we know is still prime age for an NFL quarterback.
The Falcons drafted USC wide receiver Drake London with the eighth overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. London is a big-bodied receiver at 6 foot 5 inches and will be an asset for Pitts as he will help draw attention away from him. It will be nearly impossible for defenses to cover both Pitts and London at the same time.
While the Vegas sportsbooks aren't projecting much for the Falcons in terms of wins for 2022, there is a chance they can catch lightning in a bottle with Mariota and we know the pass-happy game scripts will be there in the second halves of games for fantasy production. The only thing that could derail Pitts' fantasy breakout in 2022 is simply an injury or a late-season transition to Desmond Ridder that doesn't go so well.
One year from now, we will be looking back on 2021 as "the good ole days" of when Pitts was readily available in the third round of fantasy drafts. He is likely a first-round pick come the 2023 draft season. Pitts will be such a cheat code for fantasy this year that those who missed the boat will be petitioning for their league's commissioner to eliminate the TE position this offseason and add a W/R/T spot instead.
Trevor Lawrence Finishes in the Top-12 of QBs
A generational prospect many had been salivating about since 2018, Trevor Lawrence came into the NFL with as much hype and pedigree as the likes of Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning.
While his rookie campaign was mostly a disaster, we should be looking at the prior season and giving Lawrence a free pass for the continued dysfunction and lack of talent on the Jaguars that led to Urban Meyer's dismissal. Lawrence threw for 3,641 yards but had just 12 TDs and 17 INTs in 2021.
Running back Travis Etienne has returned from a prior Lisfranc injury that sidelined him for all of 2021, and the Jaguars were active in free agency signing Christian Kirk to a monster contract of $72 million over four years. They also brought in tight end Evan Engram and signed wide receiver Zay Jones. While this is not an elite group of skill players, it is a solid upgrade for Lawrence compared to what he was previously working with.
Doug Pederson was brought in to be the new head coach and is expected to be a good mentor for Lawrence. Nick Foles was a Super Bowl champion under Pederson and Carson Wentz had some of his best seasons under his tutelage as well. As RotoBaller's own Michael Florio mentioned in an offseason article, Pederson's offenses have a history of being successful at the NFL level.
Pederson-lead offenses finished inside the top-12 in scoring in each of his first four seasons at the helm in Philadelphia from 2016-19. Pederson's Eagles offenses also only finished outside of the top-10 in pass attempts just once, finishing 13th. In the average of Pederson's five seasons, his teams also passed 60% of the time. All of these factors should give us a degree of confidence in Lawrence being a much better quarterback for fantasy purposes going forward.
Lawrence is also a much better athlete than he gets credit for. During his three seasons at Clemson, Lawrence rushed for 943 yards and 18 touchdowns, including a sophomore campaign where he added 563 yards on the ground and nine scores. As we have seen in recent years, running quarterbacks have become a relative sort of cheat code for fantasy purposes and Lawrence can provide some rushing upside to your fantasy lineups in 2022 as he rushed for 334 yards and two TDs last season.
Trevor Lawrence has all the physical traits of an NFL franchise quarterback and has plenty of upside for fantasy as well. We should all be thrilled that we are able to get him at such a discount in 2022 which allow us to beef up our rosters at RB, WR, and TE while we wait on quarterback!
Happy drafting and feel free to use these bold predictions to help you win your leagues or keep these receipts for December in case I am wrong. Best of luck this season!
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