RADIO
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence had a disastrous rookie season and was a huge letdown in fantasy football as a rookie. Michael Florio breaks down his draft value among quarterbacks for 2022.
Have you ever had an awful boss? I am not talking about a boss that is a little annoying, I am talking about one that you dread seeing and that seemingly makes life harder for you and all your coworkers. I am talking about a boss that makes you react the way Stanley reacts to Michael Scott in The Office when he tells him off and says “everything you would do, I would do it the opposite way.”
If you have ever worked in a toxic workplace, you understand that it can make even the simplest of tasks so much harder. And you also understand what a change of environment can mean for an employee. As someone who has worked in a toxic environment - take my word for it!
There may not have ever been a more toxic environment, at least in the NFL world, than what the Jacksonville Jaguars had to deal with in 2021. I mean, it was an utter failure from the very beginning and one that placed Trevor Lawrence in a position to fail rather than succeed. But, does that mean we should just be buying back in for 2022, or does Lawrence himself deserve some of the blame?
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What Went Wrong in 2021
The short answer here is well, everything. But it was a failure from the start. To give a Sparksnote version on some of what happened under Urban Meyer: Lawrence was forced to split reps with Gardner Minshew all offseason and preseason to build some illusion of competition. Minshew was traded to the Eagles before the season even started. The Jaguars signed Tim Tebow to play tight end, which isn’t really bad but did cause some media distraction and he did not make the roster. They broke CBA rules and the Jags had to pay a fine.
Meyer also seemed overwhelmed from the start, comparing an NFL season to playing Alabama each week. He talked about stopping a player that was not on the opposing team. After a Jaguars loss, he did not travel back with his team, and then a video was leaked of him dancing with a woman who is not his wife. He called himself a winner and all his assistants losers, while making them defend their resumes, just months after Meyer himself hired them. He benched James Robinson and then publicly blamed his assistant coach and Lawrence had to plead with Meyer to not take Robinson off the field. He literally kicked his kicker during a practice. And then he was fired in the middle of the night. As if that all wasn’t bad enough, there is a chance I am forgetting something. To call his tenure a failure would be sugarcoating it.
Any player put in that position would struggle to succeed. But a rookie QB, with all the pressure of being a “generational talent” and the first overall pick, well it is easy to see why Lawrence and the Jaguars struggled.
Still, there is no denying that Lawrence failed to live up to expectations in his first year. As a rookie, he threw for just 3,641 yards with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He had just a two percent TD rate, which was lower than his 2.8 percent interception rate. Lawrence threw multiple passing touchdowns just twice as a rookie. He averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt, which was the lowest of all QBs but was actually more than the air yards per throw he averaged (5.2). He was also sacked 32 times. He did show an ability to add value with his legs rushing for 334 yards and two scores. His 334 rushing yards ranked eighth among all QBs.
The rushing is really the only big positive from Lawrence’s rookie season - but there are reasons to believe that production is sustainable. During his sophomore year at Clemson, he rushed for 563 yards and nine scores. As a junior in the Covid shortened season, he rushed for 203 yards and eight scores in just 10 games. After watching every play from that season, I came away thinking Lawrence is a better runner than he gets credit for, especially near the goal line.
What Will be Different in 2022
The biggest change in 2022 starts with the head coach. Lawrence will have Doug Pederson now working with him, which is a big change from Meyer. Pederson has a reputation as a strong quarterback developer. Carson Wentz had his best season under Pederson and then he turned Nick Foles into a Super Bowl champ and had Jalen Hurts playing well in a small sample size.
His offenses also have a history of being successful at the NFL level - at least when it comes to passing. They have finished inside the top-12 in scoring in each of his first four seasons. The Eagles finished just one time outside the top-10 in pass attempts, and that one time they finished 13th. Three of the five seasons they finished 12th or better in passing touchdowns, including the 2017 Super Bowl season when they led the league. In his five seasons, the Eagles passed the ball on 60% of their plays. It would be a huge step up if the Jaguars finished in the top-10 in scoring, but they definitely can do so in passing attempts and potentially yards. We have already started to see Pederson’s impact as Lawrence is getting every rep with the ones this training camp.
The Jaguars also added more talent around Lawrence this year. First, they brought back left tackle Cam Robinson, who was a free agent and then signed right guard Brandon Scherff. The protection up front for Lawrence should be improved. But they then signed Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Laquon Treadwell to join Marvin Jones Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., and Jamal Agnew in the receiver room. They also signed Evan Engram to pair a solid pass-catching tight end dup with Dan Arnold. Not only is this more talent than the Jaguars had last year, but they now have depth as well. That was another area that was greatly tested last year. As the season went on, Lawrence had less and less talent around him. Additionally, last year's first-round pick Travis Etienne is reportedly healthy and regaining his old form. He has a strong connection with Lawrence from Clemson and should allow Lawrence to make some safe, short throws and add yards after the catch.
Lawrence finds himself in an all-around better situation than he was just a year ago. Not only does he now have some NFL seasoning under his belt, but he has a much better coach and play-caller leading his offense, with more talent around him. If you believed in Lawrence coming into the NFL, and honestly pretty much everyone did as he was the most hyped QB prospect since Andrew Luck, then you should not be writing him off after one season with an all-time bad set of circumstances. I know we all like to point to stats and stuff, but context matters, and no matter how you shake it, Lawrence was not set up for success as a rookie.
If you are now considering giving Lawrence a second chance in fantasy football, the only other question becomes one of cost. Currently, in FFPC drafts, Lawrence is the QB20 going off the board at pick 124 overall. In NFFC drafts, he is currently QB19 at pick 130 overall, and in Underdog drafts, he is the QB19 going off the board with pick 147 overall. Basically, you do not have to draft Lawrence to be your starting QB; in fact, you can wait on drafting a second QB and still end up with Lawrence late.
To me, there is a tier of upside QB2s which includes Lawrence, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston. Lawrence possesses just as much upside as any of these QBs and is the perfect pairing as an upside shot to go along with a QB such as Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, or Kirk Cousins. The truth is, he remains a strong upside shot worth taking regardless of who you draft as your first QB.
Due to both the better coach, improved talent around him, and the fact that he is heading into his second season in the NFL, all things point to that he has the potential to take a big step forward. Add in that he is going dirt cheap across all fantasy sites, and he is easily a shot worth taking in fantasy this season.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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