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Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and with it, a fresh start to your fantasy leagues and DFS bankroll. With the amount of data out there today, finding an edge in weekly and season-long contests is becoming incredibly difficult. One of the best ways to gain an edge in fantasy and DFS is by paying particular attention to a wide receiver’s cornerback matchup, as this isn’t something that typically factors into DFS and player prop pricing as much as it should.
Matchups for the wide receiver position aren't always as straightforward as they can be for other positions – receivers will often move around the formation, matching up against various defensive backs throughout the course of a game. Nonetheless, primary receiver vs. cornerback matchups can be incredibly useful in helping to predict which receivers will over-perform in a given week.
Each week we will use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are a handful of top WR vs. CB matchups for Week 1. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player-prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
$8,200 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel; vs. J.C. Jackson
Tyreek Hill had an incredible first season in Miami last year, finishing as the WR3 in a new offense with QB Tua Tagovailoa. He looks poised to continue that form in 2023, starting with a juicy matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers which has the highest over/under of the week at 51 points.
While Hill is known to move around the formation more than most receivers, he is projected to match up most often against Chargers CB J.C. Jackson, a defender who ranked near the bottom in PFF’s grading system last year with a paltry 28.7 rating.
Despite being the third-most expensive WR on both platforms, Hill is a great bet to return value in DFS this week. Fellow WR Jaylen Waddle, who comes at a $1,100 and $900 discount to Hill on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, is another great way to get a piece of this offense in Week 1.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
$6,500 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel; vs. Dallis Flowers, Darrell Baker Jr.
Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley will play in his first NFL regular season game since 2021 on Sunday against the Colts. Ridley is projected to play on the outside opposite WR Zay Jones, with Christian Kirk likely to line up mostly in the slot as he has been most of the preseason.
The Colts will be a welcome first opponent for Ridley and the new-look Jaguars offense - Indianapolis ranks as the number one easiest matchup for opposing receivers entering this season according to PFF. Ridley will look to take advantage of an inexperienced Colts secondary whose starting outside cornerbacks have a combined two years of NFL experience.
Without any recent data on Ridley, he has a wider range of outcomes, and DraftKings in particular has priced him cautiously. This is your chance to get him at a discount.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$6,300 on DraftKings, $6,500 on Fanduel; vs. Akayleb Evans
Mike Evans has been the picture of consistency in his nine NFL seasons, finishing with over 1,000 receiving yards every year of his career and not finishing worse than 19th among receivers in fantasy points per game since 2016. His performance is expected to dip this season, however, with Tom Brady retiring and QB Baker Mayfield starting for the Buccaneers to start the season.
The Buccaneers travel to Minnesota in Week 1 to take on the Vikings and their second-easiest matchup for opposing receivers according to PFF’s Strength-of-Schedule metric from last year. As an outside receiver who lines up primarily in the Z-receiver spot, Evans projects to match up primarily against Minnesota Vikings CB Akayleb Evans in one of the most favorable WR/CB matchups of the week according to PFF.
Evans is certainly more palatable in DraftKings contests this week with a $6,300 price tag. With a low projected ownership percentage, he is a particularly good bet for GPP/tournament-style contests.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
$5,400 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel; vs. Donte Jackson
Drake London showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season for the Falcons last year but was largely inconsistent, finishing as the WR43 in half-PPR. Despite where he finished, London’s upside was evidenced by finishing as the tenth-best WR according to PFF’s player grade in 2022 to go along with the fifth-highest target share (29.4%) and second-highest target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers.
London and the Falcons open the 2023 campaign with a matchup against the Panthers, who rank as the third-easiest matchup for receivers according to PFF’s Strength-of-Schedule metric from last year. With London lining up in the X-receiver spot 49% of the time last season, he is projected to primarily match up against CB Donte Jackson, a defender he can beat with his burst or his height (London is six inches taller than Jackson).
With a middle-of-the-road price in both DraftKings and FanDuel, London is a great bet to return value in Week 1.
Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos
$3,000 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel; vs. Jakorian Bennett, Nate Hobbs
With WR Jerry Jeudy sidelined for Week 1 battling a hamstring injury, rookie Marvin Mims Jr. has shot up draft boards as the Broncos WR2 to start the season. He is projected to match up primarily against fellow rookie CB Jakorian Bennett in his NFL debut at home against the Raiders.
New Broncos head coach Sean Payton traded up in the second round to select Mims Jr. in the 2023 NFL Draft, who will get a chance to show off his shiftiness and ability to work underneath as a result of a handful of injuries to the Broncos’ receiving corps.
Mims Jr. is an absolute steal in DFS Week 1 and a great option for managers looking to creatively fit Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill under their cap.
All data is from PFF. Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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