Which outfielders spring to mind when you think about the 2015 season's biggest busts? Hanley Ramirez? Carlos Gomez? Jacoby Ellsbury? All good choices, but no. Going by the difference between their ADP and final Player Rater ranking (both courtesy of FantasyPros), here's your 2015 All-Bust outfield:

 

Player	ADP among OFs	Final Rank among OFs	Difference
Yasiel Puig	7	121	114
Corey Dickerson	15	115	100
Hunter Pence	33	112	79

 

For my thoughts on Puig, check out Tuesday's post on him. We'll focus on the other two today.

 

Dickerson

Coming off a breakout 2014 in which he hit .312/.364/.567 with 24 homers and eight steals, Dickerson was a hot commodity in fantasy drafts last spring. He was chosen ahead of both established vets such as Starling Marte, other rising stars like Mookie Betts, and both of his teammates in the Rockies outfield, who each checked one of the other two boxes (Carlos Gonzalez the former, Charlie Blackmon the latter).

Unfortunately, Dickerson battled plantar fasciitis all season, and then broke a few ribs diving for a fly ball. As a result, he played in just 57 games not including eight pinch-hit appearances. When he was able to play, though he hit .304/.333/.536, continued making quality contract, and posted similar counting stats on a per-game basis to what he'd produced in 2014. Taken in tandem with his consistently excellent minor league numbers, that bodes well for his future. Steamer agrees, projecting Dickerson to duplicate his 2014 counting stats.

Obviously, though, health is a concern. Plantar fasciitis can be a problem that lingers for years. It is one of the most difficult injuries an athlete can suffer, because essentially the only true way to treat it is rest. Any running or jumping usually offsets the effect of physical therapy or anti-inflammatories, and symptoms often recur even after extended rest. Surgery is regarded as a last resort and carries with it a lengthy recover time - as much as a year, in some cases.

And like almost every Rockies hitter throughout the ages, Dickerson's home/road splits are fairly ridiculous. I'm on record as not putting all that much stock into those, but Coors Field is typically an exception. This is more of a concern in weekly leagues, and on its own isn't particularly onerous. Still worth noting, especially in light of the increased injury risk.

 

Pence

The veteran, on the other hand, had been the picture of health for his entire career. Other than a broken wrist during his rookie year, Pence had never spent a day on the disabled list. He averaged 158 games played over the next seven seasons, and entered 2015 with a consecutive games streak of 383, longest in the league. After being hit by a pitch in spring training, Pence was left with a broken forearm and didn't make his season debut until mid-May. He lasted only 18 games before landing on the DL again with wrist tendinitis stemming from the fracture, and ultimately saw his season end in mid-August after straining his oblique.

Pence's final line of .275/.327/.478 wasn't too far off his .284/.337/.472 career mark, and represented an improvement over what he'd produced in 2014. Prorated, his counting stats would have been right in line with the best seasons of his career, and Pence has long been an underappreciated fantasy asset. Of particular note, and value, has been his consistency:

Season	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2008	.269	25	78	83	11
2009	.282	25	76	72	11
2010	.282	25	93	91	14
2011	.314	22	84	97	8
2012	.253	24	87	104	5
2013	.283	27	91	99	22
2014	.277	20	106	74	13
Average	.280	24	88	89	13

 

Among outfielders during this time, Pence is tied for eighth in homers, fourth in both runs and RBI, and sits just outside the top 30 in batting average and stolen bases. Only six other outfielders played in at least 1,000 games; Pence is the only one who played more than 1,100.

It's easy to look at 2015 as the outlier...because right now, it is. But Pence is also entering his age 33 season, and the corollary to not missing time is accruing a lot of mileage. Maybe Pence deserves the benefit of the doubt, but his durability is more of a question mark than it's ever been.

 

Who Ya Got?

As in yesterday's installment, we're weighing the pros and cons between an ascendant younger player and an established veteran each coming off disappointing seasons. As in yesterday's installment, I'm taking the vet. Unlike yesterday, however, I started writing assuming I would be choosing the other guy. Dickerson should have a nice year and is the better long-term asset, but Pence has been providing similar production for the better part of a decade. He ought to resume being a metronome in 2016.

 

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