RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write primarily MLB and NFL on Rotoballer but I play a lot of NHL DFS and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, January 8th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/8/22
COVID continues to wreak havoc on all sports and as always check the news and lineups before lock and have pivots ready to go in case someone is ruled out late. We have six games starting at 7 p.m. EST, two games at 6 p.m. EST, two games at 10 p.m. EST, and one game at 10:30 p.m. EST. If you have exposures to various games at those times, check the news 10-15 minutes before face off to get the latest on starting goalies and any players out due to injury or COVID.
NHL DFS Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy- DK $8.2K || FD $8.6K
Opponent - Boston Bruins
The logic here is really simple. Tampa Bay at home is always a spot I want to roster Vasilevskiy. Boston is implied for 2.4 goals tonight, tied with Arizona for the lowest on the slate, and Tampa Bay is a (-182) money line favorite at the time of this writing. Goalie is always a tough position to project, however, the high chance of winning and going against Arizona-levels of implied goals makes Vasilevskiy my top spend-up option tonight.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Saros (DK $8.5K || FD $8.2K), Lehner (DK $8.4K || FD $8.0K), Nedeljkovic (DK $7.1K || FD $7.0K)
NHL DFS Centers
Auston Matthews-DK $8.6K || FD $9.8K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
Toronto is implied for three goals tonight. Matthews averages 17.5 DraftKings points per game and 20.67 FanDuel points per game on the season. Toronto is No. 3 in Power Play Percentage (30.1%) and Colorado is No. 28 in Penalty Kill Percentage (73.9%). The last time these two teams played, Matthews had a hattrick and scored 47.8 DraftKings points and 50.4 FanDuel points. He has the same ceiling as MacKinnon at a reduced cost on both sites.
Mikael Granlund- DK $5.2K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Mikael Granlund is my top value play at Center tonight. Nashville is implied for 3.8 goals which is the most on the slate. Granlund is on the first line and first power-play line too. The Predators have scored 19 goals in their past five games with a low of three goals and a high of six goals. Going against a historically bad Arizona team, I want a piece of what could be the highest-scoring team on the slate at a much cheaper cost than most of the top options tonight. This is more of a cash game play, as Granlund does not have the ceiling an Auston Matthews or a Nathan MacKinnon has, but he isn't priced like them either.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Zibanejad (DK $7.3K || FD $7.3K), Hartman (DK $5.8K || FD $7.0K), Trocheck (DK $4.9K || FD $5.7K), Rossi (DK $2.7K || FD $3.4K)
NHL DFS Wings
Filip Forsberg- DK $6.7K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
A better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, he is someone to roster for all the same reasons you'd roster Granlund, except he has a 40+ fantasy point ceiling and on DraftKings isn't that much more expensive. On FanDuel I like him more than the 9-10k options for the price, but there are more midrange values if looking for salary relief. In cash, I don't mind pairing Granlund and Forsberg, and in a GPP, stacking that first line is something to consider depending on what the ownership looks like.
Kevin Fiala- DK $4.5K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Fiala is on the top line and top power-play, although Minnesota's power play is one of the worst in the NHL (No. 23) at just 17.4%. Minnesota is implied for 3.2 goals, Fiala is averaging 3.1 shots on goal over his last 10 games. If he can get a point, and get 3 shots on goal, he should not have a hard time making value tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $9.4K || FD $10.2K), Rantanen (DK $8.7K || FD $9.5K), Kucherov (DK $6.5K || $8.0K) Bjorkstrand (DK $4.9K || FD $5.8K), Zuccarello (DK $5.1K || FD $6.4K), R. Smith (DK $4.6K || FD $5.7K), Laine (DK $5.4K || FD $6.0K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
Roman Josi- DK $7.4K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Roman Josi is back from COVID, and always one of the best high floor plays for a cash game lineup. Getting essentially a one point per game type of player from the defensive position is big, and he provides hits and blocks that contribute to his floor as well.
Alex Pietrangelo- DK $6.4K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Vegas is implied for 3.8 goals and Pietrangelo is on the Power Play as well. His fantasy scoring average isn't far off from Josi's but he is more boom and bust in that he is a 0.66 point per game scorer and on games, he does not score a point, his fantasy scoring is below 10 points. Being in a highly favorable matchup is good for Pietrangelo. I would consider him more for GPP than cash games.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Theodore (DK $5.5K || FD $6.2K), Doughty (DK $5.9K || FD $7.0K), DeAngelo (DK $5.7K || FD $6.2K), Ekholm (DK $3.8K || FD $4.4K), Yandle (DK $3.2K || FD $3.9K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
The teams with the highest implied totals are Nashville (3.8), Vegas (3.8), Colorado (3.7), and Columbus (3.5). Boston (2.4), Arizona (2.4), Chicago (2.4), and Detroit (2.6) are the only teams with implied totals of less than three. This means we have 16 teams with implied totals of between 3.0 and 3.8 goals scored. This slate is going to be wide open.
Whenever I am playing a GPP in a wide-open slate, I want to fade chalky stacks. I'd rather make three-five lineups of some of the teams that are in the middle price-wise and projection-wise because their chances of being the top stack aren't greatly different than some of the higher-priced teams.
I expect Columbus, Minnesota, and Vegas to be popular as they are inexpensive to stack and I am likely to fade all three. I would consider one-offs from those teams though. I expect Colorado and Washington to be less popular because they are so expensive. Stacking just Colorado's first line would take up half of your DraftKings salary and about 54% of your FanDuel salary. The only way to make Colorado work is to punt at G and both D spots along with stacking the third line as a secondary stack.
Washington isn't as expensive as Colorado but I think they are a little overpriced. You can get Washington in if you can find a low-priced second line you like pairing them with and hope to hit on a few punt plays at D and G as well. I am likely to fade them though.
That said my top stacks tonight are as follows:
Nashville 1/PP1: Tied for the highest implied total, fully correlated to the power play, and might not be as popular as Vegas. If going four-person stack, add Josi to line 1.
San Jose 1/PP1: Implied for 3.2 goals, fully correlated to the power play as well. I don't mind adding Burns for a four-person stack or adding a cheap Bonino if needing value as well.
Tampa Bay 1: Nikita Kucherov is too cheap on DraftKings at $6,500. He should be more like $7,500 in my opinion. I want to get exposure to that first line while he is underpriced. Tampa Bay is implied for 3.2 goals, they are a heavy favorite, and could be somewhat overlooked tonight. On FanDuel, Kucherov is more expensive, but not overpriced, and I still like stacking them over there too.
