Statcast Hitter Risers, Fallers - xwOBA Rolling Windows

Statcast hitter leaderboard for xwOBA entering Week 20 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Pierre Camus reviews the expected statistics for key batters of interest.

After an insane trade deadline that saw pretty much everybody in the league changes teams (hyperbole intended), we must collect ourselves and focus on the numbers again. The intent of this series is to identify the top risers and fallers for various Statcast metrics each week, not focus on the players who are in the news. It just so happens that a few of the players who find themselves on new teams are also at the top or bottom of this week's chosen stat - xwOBA.

I've chosen to focus on a 50-plate appearance rolling window since that is fairly close to the sample size for many players since the second half kicked off. This might give us a good sense of who has benefited from the time off or gotten off to a slow start.

All Statcast data is current as of August 1, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com

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xwOBA Risers

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

You'd be forgiven for not knowing that Miggy was still around. While fellow future HOF first baseman Albert Pujols has been in the headlines this year because of his home run total and move to the other L.A. team, Cabrera has quietly toiled in Detroit. He's only rostered in 7% of Yahoo leagues and hasn't been worth discussing all year due to thoroughly uninspiring numbers that include a .250/.308/.378 slash line, 10 HR, 48 RBI, and 35 runs scored. He seems reinvigorated after the All-Star break, though.

In 61 post-break PA, Cabrera is batting .294 with three HR, 16 RBI and a 6-7 BB-K rate. It helps that he's faced teams like the Twins, Rangers, Royals, and Orioles but it's not as if the Tigers aren't going to see similar opponents the rest of the year from the AL Central. There isn't a sense of whether Cabrera will decide to hang it up after this season, but he is now 38 and on a team that is a long way from contending. Whether he's looking to go out with a bang or simply refreshed after a few days off, he's shown enough to become stream-worthy for the time being.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Votto is hot lately? You don't say. If you haven't heard, he is on the heels of a historic run with at least one home run in seven straight games and a total of nine in the last week of July. He'd put together a mediocre season to that point, but something ignited a spark in him and now he's among the NL home run leaders, and tied with teammate Jesse Winker at 21.

Joey Votto's last 7 hits:

Home run
Home run
Home run
Home run
Home run
Home run
Home run pic.twitter.com/nPm7GeohCC

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 29, 2021

The bigger picture is that Votto has been excellent at the plate in terms of underlying metrics and the counting stats are now catching up.

His .403 xwOBA is at its highest point since 2017 and his exit velocity and barrel rate are the best of his career, at least as far as Statcast tracks back to 2015. Now, the obvious question is whether he'll see regression back to the levels of the past two seasons since his HR streak is over. It's hard to imagine he'll sustain a hard hit rate 15 points above his career average, after all. That said, the way he's making contact begs for him to stay in fantasy lineups the rest of the season unless he crashes hard into a prolonged slump, but that's not his style.

Jorge Soler, Atlanta Braves

Did Soler's recent resurgence play a part in the Braves' decision to acquire him at the deadline? Probably not, but the timing doesn't hurt.

Just a week ago, I identified Soler as one of the biggest xHR underachievers and he proceeded to go deep twice in a game for the second straight day. He now finds himself in Atlanta after the trade deadline, which provides a more favorable home park and better lineup than he had in KC. He's taken a liking to the ATL so far, collecting four hits in his first two games with the club. That brought his season average to the .200 mark for the first time since May 15. It's the little victories.

Going back to his KC days, Soler had been on the rise with six homers in the week before he was traded. He was also seeing more walks and has a 7-9 BB-K rate in the second half, compared to 31-88 BB-K in the first half. This has buy-low/pickup written all over it.

xwOBA Fallers

Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants

Yaz has been adequate in the power department with 17 HR and 43 RBI, but his .227 average has been a drag. His .212 xBA is in the seventh percentile and his .313 xwOBA is in the 35th percentile, a full 50 points lower than last year. A lower walk rate isn't to blame for the massive OBP drop – he's just not able to hit breaking balls or offspeed pitches anymore.

It's astounding to see his xBA cut in half for breaking pitches and his batting average drop even more for offspeed pitches. As a late-bloomer who was looking like a career minor leaguer before breaking through in 2019, maybe we should start tempering expectations for him if he has already peaked. The addition of Kris Bryant could provide a boost if he starts seeing more fastballs, but I don't know that we'll ever see a full rebound to last year's production.

Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

Now we know why the Nats traded him (again, kidding). Turner is nearly leading the league in batting average, has an xBA in the 95th percentile, and has a .381 wOBA in the top 8% of the league. His presence on the bottom of the rolling window leaderboard seems absurd considering he has seven hits in his past 15 at-bats, but it's just a testament to how hot he was in his previous 50 PA.

The reason Turner is worth discussing here is the move to L.A. He will move to second base to accommodate Corey Seager's return from IL. He is also currently dealing with COVID, so we won't see him in a Dodger uniform for a few more days. In the midst of such a great season, could the confluence of changing teams, positions, lineup spot, and the aftereffects of the virus throw him off course? I won't pretend to know the answer, but it is worth considering that his value might be at its peak, so perhaps fantasy managers should take the same approach as Mike Rizzo in Washington and deal him away now for a bigger haul.

Joey Gallo, New York Yankees

Another player who finds himself with a new team, anything that happened before July 31 might as well be thrown out the window. Then again, Gallo wasn't just the biggest faller in xwOBA over the past 50 PA, he was by far the lowest. Gallo only hit .167 in July and that includes two hitless contests as a Yankee before going 1-for-4 on August 1. The move to Yankee Stadium will surely help his left-handed power bat, but he'll have to resist the temptation to sell out for power and sacrifice his average in the process.

Who are we kidding, this is Joey Gallo! He will never help your average, but he is powering up as always and has a career-high 19.1% walk rate. His .375 xwOBA on the season is in the 89th percentile and his .500 xBACON is also among the best, so there's no need to worry about his recent slump. That's just what he does. The deal should boost his value slightly even if it doesn't change his profile in any way.

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