February 14, 2016

Ricky Delgado analyzes David Wright as a 2016 fantasy baseball sleeper and draft value. This MLB third baseman projects to exceed his ADP and can be a sleeper.

David Wright spent the majority of his 2015 season on the disabled list with spinal stenosis. Sure, that sounds bad, but Wright was able to return in August and played right through the postseason run and into the World Series. In September, his only full regular season month, he posted solid numbers. Playing in 23 games, he slashed .299/.396/.483 with 26 hits, 12 RBI, three HR and seven doubles. In the postseason, his numbers improved by round, culminating with five hits and four RBI in a five-game World Series loss to the Kansas City Royals.

2016 Fantasy Outlook

Health will be the key to Wright's season. Last year, he played in his fewest games since his rookie year in 2004. The seven-time All-Star should be good to go this year, so fantasy baseball owners shouldn’t be too weary of him. While his most recent full season wasn’t very impressive, this is a whole new world for Wright. After all, this is probably the best team he’s ever played in, and this is his best lineup. He’ll probably once again settle into the number two spot, right behind power hitter Curtis Granderson at the leadoff and power hitter Yoenis Cespedes in the third spot. This should be a breath of fresh air for Wright, and while there’s a good chance he won’t hark back to his 30 HR-100 RBI days, this should be his best season in three years.

In 2013, Wright hit .307, picking up 18 HR and 58 RBI on 132 hits. He pulled that off hitting alongside the likes of Eric Young, Ike Davis, and the great Omar Quintanilla. 2016 will feature the best protection he’s ever had, and it should lead to good things. At 33 years old, he’s still in that zone where he could have a couple of more prime years, but he won’t need a prime year to be productive. Can he be the consistent .300 hitter he once was? Probably not, but don’t expect him to completely fall off, either. While he recovered from his spinal stenosis injury, it still remains a legitimate issue that will surely call for more rest time. The importance of how he gets through spring training cannot be stressed enough, as it will be his first full test after a four month offseason.

Bear in mind that this issue did not affect him in the postseason, as he played every single game. If there are no issues at Port St. Lucie, you can feel better about Wright exceeding expectations. If that turns out to be the case, Wright’s batting average should hover around the same area it was in last year, perhaps slightly down between the lower .280s and upper .270s. His HR total should definitely be bouncing back, creeping back up towards 20, probably somewhere in the mid-teens. Cespedes batting behind him will be a huge coup for the veteran, and expect him to take advantage and post better numbers. As for drafting him, he’s not a top third base option. Wright isn’t a starting option, but he can absolutely turn into one of those players drafted for the bench that ultimately becomes a starter. Our guys currently have him positioned between 13-16 among third basemen, a third-tier starter, which is exactly where he should be.

There are numerous things that must go right for him to have a successful 2016 campaign, there’s no denying that fact. But isn’t that the case with all sleepers? Every season they surprise you, coming out of nowhere to produce enough that they become relied upon by fantasy owners. David Wright might not fit that exact criteria, as he’s a player that will surely be drafted in most, if not all drafts. If you draft a utility player at the third base position, Wright may be a viable option for a strong third baseman coming off the bench. He may also turn into your wisest pick, a mid-draft gamble that pays off in a big way.

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