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As we entered the offseason, Mike Trout held the record for the biggest contract in MLB history at $426 million. Not anymore.
After announcing the signing on his Instagram following a media circus the prior few days with rampart rumors and report, Shohei Ohtani is heading to the Los Angeles Angels, signing a 10-year contract worth $700 million. That not only beat Trout's contract, it blew it out of the damn water.
And while the baseball world is discussing, debating, and feuding about Ohtani deferring $680 million of that to the years 2034-2044, let's dive into the fantasy ramifications of this signing.
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Shohei Ohtani Fantasy Breakdown
The two-way fantasy baseball unicorn will only be a hitter this season after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery, but hitter-Ohtani is still a top-10 player overall.
In each of his last three seasons, Ohtani has recorded at least 90 runs scored, 34 home runs, 95 RBI, and 11 steals. That's basically his floor as long as he plays at least 130 games in a season. The 2023 season was Ohtani's best season yet at the plate, slashing .304/.412/.654 with 102 runs, 44 home runs, 95 RBI, and 20 steals in just 135 games. Every metric in the slash line was a career-best mark and Ohtani would've blown past his previous career-highs in runs, home runs, and RBI if he had another 20 -23 games played as he did in the prior two seasons.
The metrics under the hood were just as impressive. Ohtani ranked in the top 5% of hitters last season in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate, AVG EV, Max EV, xwOBACON, hard-hit rate, and walk rate. He also led baseball in wOBA, wRC+, SLG, and ISO. The fact that he led baseball in wOBA and wRC+ even with what Ronald Acuña Jr did in 2023 is simply phenomenal. And to add, Ohtani even trimmed his strikeout rate to a career-best 23.9% while also posting the highest walk rate of his career at 15.2%.
Ohtani was able to do that with a lackluster supporting cast around him too. Brandon Drury hade a solid season (114 wRC+), but Mike Trout was only on the field for 82 games, Taylor Ward took a step back and missed over 60 games, and the rest of the lineup was filled with a mix of Mickey Moniak, Luis Rengifo, Gio Urshela, and others.
As a team, the Los Angeles Angels ranked 16 in runs, 15th in wOBA, and tied for 14th in wRC+. Very much a middle of the pack offense and a lot of that was due to having Ohtani in the mix. Now, Ohtani moves to a Dodgers offense that ranked 2nd in runs, 2nd in wOBA, and 3rd in wRC+.
Roster Resource projects Shohei Ohtani to hit second in the Dodgers lineup, right behind Mookie Betts and right in front of Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy. Having two of the 10 best hitters in the game directly in front and directly behind you in the lineup along with two solid run producers in Smith and Muncy is absolutely going to aid Ohtani this season. He now has Betts and his 2023 .408 OBP in front of him and elite protection with Freeman which should give Ohtani more pitches to hit in theory.
As long as he can stay on the field for at least 140 games, I'd bank on Ohtani setting new career highs in RBI and runs scored while also flirting with or exceeding 40 home runs for the third time in four seasons. STEAMER projections have Ohtani at 114 runs, 39 home runs, 107 RBI, and 20 steals in 676 plate appearances with a .273/.377/.549 slash line. For me, that slash line is rather conservative (not out of the ordinary). My personal projections for Ohtani in 2024 is a .295/.405/.640 slash line with 116 runs, 43 home runs, 110 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. Part of me does wonder if he runs slightly less with the big bats behind him.
Ohtani's ADP was in the 12-15 range already and likely bumped up a few spots after signing with the Dodgers.
That's not all that we need to discuss with Ohtani though. Even though he's not going to pitch at all in 2024 due to his second Tommy John surgery, the hope is that he can still be a major impact arm on the mound in 2025 and beyond.
Dr. Jesse Morse of The Fantasy Doctors discusses Ohtani's elbow in the above video and it's a highly informative explanation from a medical professional that I would definitely recommend watching.
While Ohtani is an elite hitter, he's been able to perform at ace or near ace levels for fantasy on the mound as well. Ohtani has an ERA below 3.20 in each of his last three seasons with a strikeout rate above 31% in each of his last two seasons. The arsenal runs six pitches deep (not counting the slider), and Ohtani had a whiff rare above 36% on three of those offerings and an BAA under .180 on four of them. But can this continue at this level once he returns to the mound in 2025?
That's a major question and one we don't really have a lot to go off of. We've seen pitchers come back strong from their first Tommy John surgery, but the list of two Tommy John surgeries is much smaller. Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com wrote a great article last August about pitchers with multiple Tommy John surgeries and how they've fared after returning from the second one. He highlighted five that came back strong and five that didn't. However, the best of the bunch from the "came back strong" grouping is Nathan Eovaldi. Nasty Nate is a good pitcher but nobody on this list is the talent that Ohtani is on the mound.
At least, not yet anyway. We have recent additions to this daunting club over the last year or two which includes Jacob deGrom, Shane McClanahan, Walker Buehler, and Dustin May, but it still remains to be seen how these guys will look when they're fully back.
I'm sure Ohtani will still be a productive pitcher once he's back in 2025, but the uncertainty around just how productive cause me to drop him a few spots in my overall dynasty rankings. However, he's still a no-doubt top 10 player in dynasty leagues though and could get back inside my top-5 if he's even close to the pitcher he was before getting hurt.
Who Else Is Impacted?
Obviously, there aren't as many moving parts in a free agent acquisition when compared to a trade like we saw with Juan Soto, but Ohtani signing with the Dodgers doesn't just impact Ohtani. The immediate beneficiaries are Betts, Freeman, Smith, and even Muncy/Outman as well. Although, Betts, Freeman, and Smith are the biggest beneficiaries of Ohtani's arrival.
After scoring 126 runs with 39 home runs, 107 RBI, 14 steals, and a .307/.408/.579 slash line in 2023, Betts could easily flirt with or exceed 150 runs scored in 2024 with Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith hitting directly behind him. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he replicates his 2023 performance but with 20-25 additional runs scored. Add in his added second base eligibility, and Betts is my #2 player for 2024 redraft leagues and remains a locked-in top 10 dynasty bat.
Outside of Betts, Freeman and Smith receive a nice bump in fantasy value as well. Freeman was already a first round selection in 2024 drafts, and similarly to Ohtani, probably moves up a spot or two as he now has two players that had an OBP over .400 hitting directly in front of him. You can take that one step further for Smith who now has THREE guys in front of him that had an OBP north of .400 in 2023. Smith recorded a career-best 80 RBI in 2023 and could easily flirt with 100 RBI in 2024 as long as he has at least 550-600 plate appearances. This doesn't change his standing in my 2024 catcher rankings, but it puts him much closer to Adley Rutschman for that top spot, and it wouldn't surprise me if Smith was the most valuable fantasy catcher in 2024.
As for Ohtani's former team, it's obviously going to be a slight ding to the lines of Luis Rengifo, Mike Trout, Brandon Drury, and Taylor Ward who were slated to hit directly in front of and behind Ohtani if he were still a member of the team in 2024. However, with Ohtani no longer occupying the DH spot on a regular basis, this means more time there for Trout, Drury, and Ward.
I'm especially excited about this for Trout in particular. Yes, he loses Ohtani and the run production boost that comes with him, but maybe this will help Trout stay on the field more in 2024 if he's able to DH more frequently than he has in the past several years. Trout is still an elite fantasy player when on the field, but he hasn't played in 130 or more games in a season since 2019 and hasn't reached 150 games played since 2016. And over the last three seasons, Trout has averaged 335.7 plate appearances per season. I'm not necessarily looking for 150 GP from him, but Trout getting back to the 130 games played mark would be HUGE for his fantasy value. Hopefully more time at DH helps his troublesome back.
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