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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Wednesday, April 12th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL; Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet. FantasyBook is more traditional than what you may be used to from other fantasy sites, offering you Fantasy Point lines for pitchers and hitters. Choose whether you think they will score Over or Under that set line, and choose your bet. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
Soon enough, RIVAL will also offer season-long contests, changing the game regarding the pathways we can take as sports bettors. With promo code BALLER, you get a risk-free deposit of up to $50 and also a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($199 value). RIVAL Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. There are no large-field tournaments filled with sharks where you have to get lucky to place. At RIVAL Fantasy, you're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections.
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
George Springer vs. Trent Grisham
This one's a no-brainer for me, as Springer is the better hitter and will face a more vulnerable pitcher today. Springer has four or more RIVALS points in three straight games, while Grisham has been held to two or fewer in five of his last six games. The Blue Jays outfielder also faces Eduardo Rodriguez (6.30 ERA, 4.47 xERA, 14% K%) to start, while Grisham will have a tougher test against Tylor Megill (1.64 ERA, 4.35 xERA, 22.2% K%)
Bryan Reynolds vs. Jesse Winker
Here's another case where we shouldn't overthink anything and pick the better hitter. Reynolds is off to a scorching start at the dish, posting a 1.145 OPS with five homers and off-the-chart Statcast metrics. He gets a tough right-hander in Jose Urquidy (3.86 ERA, 3.23 xERA, 25% K%) today, but he has a 1.369 OPS against RHP this season and has a great opportunity to produce as the Pirates' leadoff man. I like his chances to outscore the explosive yet streaky Jesse Winker.
Yordan Alvarez vs. Oscar Gonzalez
This one shouldn't even be on the board, so if you're lucky to find anyone willing to take it on, you're in business. Alvarez is one of the top sluggers in the sport, and he's proving it again this year, posting a .995 OPS with three homers, 16 RBI, and a .275 ISO. He's hitting .444 with a .455 wOBA against LHP this season, and LHP Rich Hill (10.00 ERA, 12.29 xERA, 5 HR allowed) is 43 years old and just waiting to get crushed again. Gonzalez is not even close to the same tier as Air Yordan.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Ken Waldichuk UNDER
RIVAL has a unique scoring format for pitchers. Strikeouts mean nothing except that they aid the IP total. A Win is 4 points, IP is 1 point, and ER is -1 point.
So IP-ER is the baseline. Then determining the possibility of securing the W for the bonus 4 points will almost always catapult a decent pitching line to be over ~6 points.
I'm going under on all three of these starting pitchers today. Eduardo Rodriguez has given us zero reasons to believe in his form, as he holds a 6.30 ERA and an abysmal 14% K% after two starts (@TB, @HOU). Those are tough matchups to start the year with, but it will not get any easier today against a dangerous Blue Jays lineup. Snell is a much better pitcher than he has shown, but the stats don't lie, and they're showing a 7.88 ERA with a 7.42 xERA and poor batted ball metrics across the board. Waldichuk is a prospect (#2 for OAK) that probably wouldn't be making starts if he weren't on a bottom-tier team. He has allowed 14 earned runs on seven (I repeat - seven) home runs through his first two starts. These aren't the Orioles we're used to, as their resurgent lineup is projected to score 5.3 runs today.
The Tigers, Padres, and A's are all slight-to-heavy underdogs today, which matters quite a bit with how heavily RIVALS weighs "wins" in its scoring system.
Paul Goldschmidt, Byron Buxton, Yordan Alvarez OVER
Hitting on RIVAL is much more standard. 1 point for single, 4 points for a home run, 1 point for a run and RBI, etc. Still not negative for striking out - RIVAL cares not about strikeouts!
These three hitters have their RIVALS projections set too low for the matchup they're gifted with today. Goldschmidt gets Jose Urena (14.40 ERA, 16.2 xERA, 2.9% K%, bottom-1 percentile in xERA/xWOBA, xBA, xSLG, K%) in Coors Field - I don't think we need to go more in-depth on that one. Buxton will face a struggling Lucas Giolito (9.00 ERA, 4.63 ERA, 19.6% K%) and a worst-in-the-MLB White Sox bullpen, so we've got to like his chances to exceed value again today. We've already discussed Alvarez a bit, but he's an elite power hitter facing off against a 43-year-old with a 12.29 xERA. The over feels like the right move.
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