August 1, 2016

Alex Chamberlain names an overrated first baseman and offers an array of underrated first basemen to replace him for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.

The 2016 season will likely go down as one of the most powerful in all of Major League Baseball history. As of last night, hitters have collectively recorded the 6th-highest isolated power (.161 ISO) and 2nd-highest ratio of home runs in history.

Alas, there's no excuse to keep sitting on sluggers that aren't living up to expectations. There are quite a few brand-name first basemen stinking up lineups that deserve to be dropped, and there are perfectly adequate substitutes waiting to be picked up in all leagues, even shallow mixed formats.

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Past editions: Week 1 (OF/SP) | Week 2 (OF/SP) | Week 3 (SS) | Week 4 (1B) | Week 6 (SP) | Week 7 (2B) | Week 8 (SP) | Week 9 (C) | Week 12 (OF) | Week 14 (SP) | All-Star Break (3B) | Week 15 (SS)

Overrated

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD
89% owned, via Fleaflicker

Most first basemen are worth owning, at least to use in a utility role. The replacement level at first base is much higher, so it's worth owning most offensively-lackluster first basemen.

Gonzalez does not deserve such recognition. With only nine home runs through four months of the season, A-Gon is making deep-league shortstops look like rock stars. The baseball community has witnessed its fair share of very slow starts before, like calms before their respective storms, but Gonzalez's slump is not one of them.

If the season ended today, Gonzalez's 30.7% hard-hit rate (Hard%) would be the worst of his career. Ditto his 24.6% fly ball rate (FB%), which would be his career-worst by miles. Gonzalez has turned into a ground ball machine, and hitting ground balls is a tough way to hit home runs.

Fortunately, Gonzalez's decent plate discipline has kept his batting average afloat. But Joe Mauer can give you the same empty batting average, and he's owned in only 27% of leagues. There's simply no reason for Gonzalez to still be on your roster. You can't trade him for anything at this point, though, except to an owner looking benefit from a hot August and September. The odds are slim, though. Either stash him on your bench or cut bait.

Underrated

Mike Napoli, CLE
44% owned, via Fleaflicker

The advanced metrics aren't thrilled with Napoli, but for all fantasy intents and purposes, he's having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. He's on pace to record the most plate appearances in any single season of his career, which could help him post the best home run total of his career.

The underlying metrics love him. From his hard-hit rate that exceeds 40% to his pull rate (Pull%) that scrapes 50%, Napoli looks like the elite slugger he was prior to his two-year power outage from 2014 to 2015. He's a defensive liability, sure, but Terry Francona has done a superb job of wringing value from all the scrappy tools at his disposal. Napoli isn't scrappy, but the composition of that team will keep him at first base or in the designated hitter role possibly for a full 600 plate appearances.

The lone knock against him from a fantasy standpoint is his strikeout rate (K%). At 32.4%, it's not unheard of for Napoli but it's still dangerously high. If his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) slips from here on out, Napoli's meager .247 batting average could slip into Mendoza Line territory. That makes him a less-glorified Chris Davis -- and that works in pretty much any league. Just know that Napoli's not a perfectly safe bet. If you acquire him for power while tossing batting average to the wind, however, there should be no qualms with his production.

Other solid underrated options: Victor Martinez (55% owned -- what? Are you serious??), Logan Forsythe (25% owned), Mark Reynolds (17% owned)

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