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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/1/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Monday night's picks finished 3-2 when the dust settled, and the game with the shortest odds (Boston-Cincy) was the biggest bust of the evening as rookie Chase Burns got torched for seven runs in the first frame.
We may have been just one swing away from a 4-1 night, as the Athletics plated three runs off Drew Rasmussen with two outs when Shea Langeliers hit a three-run home run. Jacob Lopez went on to pitch a scoreless bottom of the first. Oh well, that stuff happens, and I guess that's why they call this gambling, right? If you laid a unit on each bet, you should have at least made a small profit. Let's see what we can tonight with a full slate of action and five more NRFI bets.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable, as there's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 1, 2025)
- San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies: 6:35 pm
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: 6:40 pm
- Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins: 6:40 pm
- Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays: 7:05 pm
- Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets: 7:10 pm
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SDP: Nick Pivetta
- PHI: Cristopher Sanchez
We kick off the slate with a repeat of teams from yesterday's card. Zack Wheeler was flawless (again) and dispatched of the Padres with ease yesterday, running their offensive NRFI streak to 11 games. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron held the Phillies in check until the second inning, which worked just fine for our purposes.
The Padres send a better pitcher to the mound today in former Phillie Nick Pivetta. He's been a big addition to the Padres' rotation this season and leads their rotation with a 3.36 ERA. He's been solid in the first frame, too, with a 12-4 NRFI record. Pivetta does give up some home run balls, so that's the one risk we take here, but he's been mainly reliable all season.
Cristopher Sánchez, Bend the Knee Changeup. 🦵 pic.twitter.com/mdJsVtcv7j
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 20, 2025
The Phillies counter with their "other ace," Sanchez, who is enjoying a first half to his season. Sanchez has raised his strikeout rate nearly six points this season, while maintaining a high groundball rate (55.5%). His changeup is devastating to righties, and I expect him to pitch well tonight as the Padres' offense continues to struggle to get anything going. Sanchez has a strong 12-4 NRFI record of his own.
With two pitchers of high caliber, I would expect this line to be closer to -150, but the threat of a first-inning home run from one of the elite bats coming to the plate early (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper) is likely what's holding the odds down.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-160 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- STL: Andre Pallante
- PIT: Paul Skenes
Last night's "NRFI King" came through as Michael Wacha maintained his perfect NRFI record on the season, and we cashed that bet. Tonight's "NRFI King" is a little more well-known as Pirates' ace Paul Skenes comes into tonight's start with an immaculate 17-0 NRFI record of his own as the suddenly hot Pirates host the Cardinals.
Paul Skenes, 85mph Sweeper and 99mph Two Seamer, Overlay.
Criss Cross pic.twitter.com/3LlxDfw8TV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 13, 2025
Skenes isn't likely the pitcher we worry about; that would be Pallante, as he faces a Pittsburgh offense that is trending up and stuck early last night with a leadoff home run from Spencer Horowitz.
But Pallante has been pretty darn good this season in the first inning, with a 13-3 NRFI record. He had allowed a few YRFIs in a row in early June, but has bounced back with three straight NRFIs since then. I think Pallante can keep the Bucs in check for at least one inning, but no promises after that!
Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATH: Jeffrey Springs
- TBR: Shane Baz
I'm going back to the well in this series, even though we got beat by the home run ball yesterday. Home runs are NRFI killers, and this park in Tampa is not helping us out with these minor league dimensions. But I think we have a good shot at cashing this one tonight at very attractive odds.
For starters, Shane Baz looked dynamic in his last start and brings an elite 15-1 NRFI record into this matchup with the Athletics, who are now 7-3 on NRFIs over their last ten games after scoring in the first last night. I like his chances of shutting down the Athletics tonight.
For the Athletics, it's former Tampa hurler Jeffrey Springs taking the hill. The veteran lefty has not had the same success for the Athletics that he did while in Tampa, but he's still giving them some effective innings, especially on the road. Springs is just 8-7 on NRFIs this season, but he has reeled off four in a row.
Springs has made five straight starts in which he's allowed three runs or fewer, and we discussed yesterday how Tampa is a bit more vulnerable against LHP (though Junior Caminero may have proved my theory about his reverse splits wrong with a big home run off Lopez).
Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIN: Joe Ryan
- MIA: Edward Cabrera
Joe Ryan is having quite the season, posting the third-best WHIP of any qualified starter in baseball. He just doesn't walk guys, and by keeping the basepaths clear, he rarely has a blow-up inning.
When a problem comes along, you must WHIP it 😉 https://t.co/6Ycy6kDJ1o pic.twitter.com/aMhtOBrMMv
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2025
Ryan sports a strong 12-3 NRFI record on the season and enters this game with an impressive eight-game NRFI streak intact.
His opponent on the hill for Miami tonight couldn't be any more different. Edward Cabrera's lack of control is the one thing that has prevented him from developing into a reliable starter at the MLB level.
However, when Cabrera has his good stuff and can locate it, he's very tough to hit. I'm going to go out on a limb here and back Cabrera against the Twins, mainly because Minnesota's offense is mired in a 9-1 offensive NRFI streak. Hopefully, we get the good version of Cabrera tonight, and to his credit, he has shown some signs of improvement this season.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Freddy Peralta
- NYM: Clay Holmes
I'll keep this one brief, I promise! The Mets are struggling on offense and coming off a beatdown by the Pirates over the weekend. Their offense has just a 2-8 record on YRFIs over the last 1o games, and they'll face Peralta, a dominant righty with a 14-3 NRFI record on the season.
The tougher matchup here is the red-hot Brewers offense against Clay Holmes. Milwaukee has a 4-6 YRFI record over their last 10 and has been scoring in bunches. The good news here is that Holmes has been fantastic in the first inning this season, with a 14-2 NRFI record and has a nine-game NRFI streak intact.
For those who didn't do the math, that's a combined NRFI record of 28-5 for our two starters! Let's see if they can keep that first-inning magic going here today, too.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Padres (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Diamondbacks (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Cubs (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Red Sox (.373)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Red Sox (.467)
Conclusion
After a profitable 3-2 night on Monday, we’re back with another loaded slate of NRFI bets today, targeting five MLB matchups with strong pitching trends and favorable splits.
Despite a few tough beats yesterday, this remains one of the most exciting and quick-hitting markets in all of baseball betting. With elite arms like Skenes, Sanchez, and Peralta taking the mound, there’s plenty of value to uncover.
As always, be sure to monitor lineups and weather before locking in your picks. Let’s stay sharp, manage our bankrolls, and keep making smart moves in the NRFI betting space.
Good luck, and thanks for reading!
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